This week, the electronic (Shenwan) sector index rose or fell by – 4.2%, ranking 21st in the rise and fall of Shenwan industry. Track leading stocks continued to show a downward trend.
The overall PE of the electronics industry (shenwanyi level) continued to decline this week, with a rise or fall of – 4.67%, underperforming the Shanghai stock index by 2.95pct and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.21pct. PE in the electronics industry is at the 5.4% quantile in the past five years, and the electronics industry index is at the 49.3% quantile in the past five years. The average weekly turnover rate of the industry was 0.94% last week, the lowest in nearly a year. The factors that have a negative impact on the industry in the near future include: 1) the decline in consumer electronics demand, the cumulative year-on-year decline of mobile phone shipments in China from January to February 2022, and the year-on-year decline of retail sales in the color TV market in the first quarter of 2022. IDC lowered the expectation of China’s IT market. The shipment of smart phones may be close to a negative growth of 5%, and there is basically no growth in PCs and tablets. 2) New energy vehicle suppliers are seriously affected by the suspension of the epidemic, and can not realize high-speed performance temporarily. 3) the epidemic inhibits consumption, 4) the end of the first wave of domestic substitution, and 5) the actual technical ability of China’s top suppliers and industry leaders is poor. However, the development path of China’s semiconductor industry is still clear, the long-term trend of domestic substitution remains unchanged, the technical trend of electrification / intellectualization remains unchanged, and the industry development direction and process of new energy vehicles remain unchanged. The overall PE of the semiconductor industry is equivalent to that when the market started in early 2019. We are firmly optimistic about the long-term direction of semiconductors.
The semiconductor industry is in the global golden cycle. The performance of Chinese companies is rising and the valuation is at a historical low. The industry only owes the “east wind” of market confidence. According to the published performance report and forecast statistics of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent of China’s semiconductor sector achieved an average growth rate of 193.3% in 2021 and 151.2% in the first quarter of 2022. The average growth rate of discrete devices was the brightest in 2021, with 319.1%. The average annual growth rates of digital chips, analog chips, semiconductor manufacturing, semiconductor materials, semiconductor packaging and testing and semiconductor equipment were 252.4%, 169.3%, 138.6%, 83.3%, 81.5% and 81.0% respectively. From a global perspective, the semiconductor industry has been in another strong and lasting upward cycle since 2002 since reaching the bottom at the end of 2019. The high scenery is expected to continue this year. Due to the continuous introduction of the policy of returning to work and production this week, the negative emotional impact of the epidemic is gradually being disintegrated by the favorable policy, and the electronics industry rebounded in the second two days of this week. At present, the market sector rotates frequently. We judge that the current valuation of the semiconductor industry has long-term holding value. It is recommended to pay attention to semiconductor equipment suppliers: Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , semiconductor material supply platform: Grinm Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(600206) , and power semiconductor suppliers benefiting from the reversal of automobile supply chain, mature domestic alternative technology and broad market space: Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) .
Focus on suggestions: it’s the leader of the high boom industry, the leader of the high boom industry, the leader of the high boom industry, the leader of the industry, and the subject of the performance growth, the fixed targets of the performance growth: Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) 460 , Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic Co.Ltd(603228) , etc.
Risk warning: risk of deterioration of the international situation, unexpected epidemic development and liquidity risk
