Special topic of this week: oil refining and chemical equipment refers to the processing devices applied in the process of petroleum refining, but does not include general equipment such as packaging machinery. (1) Petrochemical industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy, and ethylene cracking furnace is the core refining and chemical equipment. Refining and chemical equipment can be mainly divided into solid material processing equipment, liquid material processing equipment, special chemical furnace, mass transfer equipment and drying equipment. It refers to the process of converting crude oil into oil refining and chemical feedstock through catalytic cracking, which is also known as a series of refining and chemical feedstock. The petrochemical industry has high upstream and downstream relevance and wide product coverage. It is closely related to industrial production and people’s life. It plays an important role in stabilizing economic growth and ensuring national defense security. In terms of volume, in 2021, the cumulative revenue of oil and gas exploitation industry was 1.1 trillion, the revenue of oil refining industry was 4.4 trillion, and the revenue of chemical industry was 8.7 trillion, which occupies an important position in the national economy. Ethylene is an important starting material for the petrochemical industry and is in the core position in the petrochemical industry chain. China’s ethylene production process route is diversified, but the oil route is mainly used, and the raw material is naphtha. Ethylene cracking furnace is mainly used for petroleum steam cracking. The comprehensive energy consumption of ethylene cracking furnace accounts for about 50% ~ 60% of the comprehensive energy consumption of ethylene plant.
According to different cracking raw materials, the investment of cracking furnace accounts for about 1 / 4 ~ 1 / 3 of the investment of the whole ethylene unit. Radiation section module is an important part of ethylene cracking furnace, and its manufacturing cost accounts for about 40% – 50% of the total cost of the whole equipment. (2) China’s oil refining capacity is structurally surplus, and ethylene capacity is in short supply. China’s oil refining capacity has increased year by year. In 2020, China’s total oil refining capacity rose to 890 million tons / year. China’s current oil refining capacity shows structural overcapacity, that is, excess primary processing capacity and uneven regional distribution of refining energy. In 2020, the operating rate of China’s oil refining capacity was 76.1% The output of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) products generally shows a steady growth trend. The total output of major chemicals increased from 550 million tons in 2015 to 625 million tons in 2020. China’s ethylene production capacity is in short supply. In 2018, China’s ethylene production capacity, output and consumption accounted for 14.3%, 14.8% and 31.2% of the world respectively. China’s consumption ranked first in the world and its production capacity and output ranked second in the world. There is a large gap between supply and demand. China’s actual external dependence on ethylene is close to 55%.
Risk factors: China’s epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of China’s economic growth was lower than expected.
