Special topic of this week: intelligent electric + new power industrial chain has been selected at the bottom
Under the disturbance of the epidemic in March, the Northeast automobile industry cluster area and the Yangtze River Delta automobile industry cluster area were greatly affected. Up to now, Jilin has been cleared in mid April, and FAW and BMW have resumed work Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) subordinate production enterprises are arranging the preparation for resumption of work and production, and all enterprises will start the pressure test for resumption of work and production on April 18 according to the arrangement.
We judge that the epidemic in April has a great impact, and the overall pressure on production and marketing is expected. However, with the promotion of resumption of production and work, it is expected that the sales volume is expected to improve month on month from may or June, and the supply gap in the early stage will be made up by working overtime, which has great flexibility.
At present, there is a significant correction in the valuation of the whole vehicle sector and the auto parts sector. Among them, the valuation of the auto parts sector has been adjusted to a relatively low level in recent years. With the resumption of production approaching, it is suggested to grasp the bottom opportunity under the pessimistic mood and firmly optimistic about the new power industrial chain + incremental parts.
This week's view: continue to be optimistic about the independent rise + electric intelligence + motorcycle and automobile intelligent electric change, reshape the industrial order, and be optimistic about the golden decade of the automobile industry.
Core portfolio of this month [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) ].
Passenger cars: the wholesale is stable and the terminal is supported. In March, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger vehicles was 1.82 million, and the monthly penetration rate of new energy exceeded 25%. We are firmly optimistic about the independent rise and realize the improvement of brand and market share through reform. We recommend [Geely Automobile h, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ] and the beneficiary [Xiaopeng automobile h, ideal automobile H].
Parts: Electric Intelligence reshapes the industrial order, rapid performance growth + new fixed-point catalysis, and firmly look at many parts. Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened, driving the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. .
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of smart electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises continue to increase the configuration of smart electric, so as to improve the market share and improve the brand:
1) intelligent increment: intelligent driving - [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], the beneficiary [Nextel]; Smart cockpit: Acoustics - [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], smart seat - [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], ceiling glass - [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], lights - [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively);
2) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ]; New energy heat management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary [ Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Motorcycles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, China's medium and large displacement motorcycles sold 33000 in March, with a year-on-year increase of + 31.1% and a month on month increase of + 41.9%. In 2022q1, 82000 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of + 49.7%. Medium and large displacement motorcycles represent the direction of consumption upgrading, with huge market potential. The share will be concentrated in independent and joint venture brands with outstanding brand strength, leading powertrain technology and perfect channel layout. Recommend [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) ].
This week's market: overall weaker than the market, led by the truck sector
This week, the A-share auto sector fell by 2.3% (weighted average of current market value, the same below), ranking 14th in shenwanzi industry, weaker than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (down 0.5%). Among the segments, trucks rose by 5.1%, while other transportation equipment, automobile services, parts, passenger cars and buses fell by 4.9%, 4.0%, 2.5%, 2.3% and 1.7% respectively.
Risk tips
Shortage of chip supply in automobile industry; Fluctuations in raw material costs exceed expectations; The terminal demand of the automobile industry is lower than expected; Automobile export sales were lower than expected.
