Investment view
Core portfolio of core shares: combination of core combination of core shares: a combination of core combination of core combinations: combinationof a combination of core shares: Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) \ \, Beijing Sdl Technology Co.Ltd(002658) , etc.
Special research of this week: since the end of March, the national Standing Committee has repeatedly proposed to use monetary policy tools to stabilize economic policies early and quickly. On April 15, the central bank announced the reduction of reserve requirements. At the same time, the real estate regulation and control policies in many cities in China have been relaxed since this year. The steady growth policy continues to increase. We believe that we should grasp two main lines: the marginal improvement of industry fundamentals, the continuous growth of exports, and the valuation repair of construction machinery is expected; After the economic growth is expected to improve, high-quality growth stocks are expected to dominate under the recovery of risk appetite. Specifically: 1) affected by factors such as the high sales base in the same period last year and the slowdown of downstream project construction caused by the epidemic, the total sales volume of excavators from January to March 2022 was 77175 units, a year-on-year increase of – 39.2%; Among them, 51886 units were sold in China, with a year-on-year growth of – 54.3%, and 25289 units were exported, with a year-on-year growth of + 88.6%. In 2022q1, the net financing of local government special bonds was 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.09 trillion yuan over the same period last year. With the gradual implementation of steady growth policies and the alleviation of the epidemic, the industry demand is expected to improve marginally. Since the beginning of last year, the construction machinery sector has made a lot of corrections. Considering the force of steady growth policy and the growth of overseas demand, the current industry has valuation and repair space; 2) From January to March 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 1233000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 150.6%; The total installed capacity of power battery was 51.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 120%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to improve, and they are optimistic about lithium battery equipment with multiple logic, liquid cooling board and other industries whose performance has been gradually realized and the boom has just started.
Key tracking industries:
Lithium battery equipment has a resonance in the global production capacity cycle. It is expected that the demand will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025. Chinese equipment companies have obvious advantages and are fully optimistic about the first and second tier leaders with advantages in technology, products and scale;
For photovoltaic equipment, the iterative upgrading of equipment promotes the cost reduction of the industrial chain, and the penetration rate of hjt increases rapidly. At the same time, the decline in the price of photovoltaic raw materials is expected to stimulate downstream demand, and we are optimistic about the leaders of battery chips and module equipment;
For power exchange, the operation space of power exchange station is expected to reach 135755 billion yuan in 2025. The operation of power exchange station is the link with the largest market space in the field of power exchange, and it is optimistic about the operation enterprises of power exchange station;
Energy storage: energy storage is the necessary foundation for building a new power grid. Policies are favorable to the implementation. Power generation and user side promote the prosperity of the industry, and are optimistic about leading companies in battery, inverter, integration and other links;
Semiconductor equipment is expected to meet us industry demand in 2030, reaching US $140 billion. Chinese mainland accounts for a larger share but the localization rate is still low. We hope that the platform companies and domestic alternatives will soon break through.
Automation, industrial consumables with a wide range of downstream applications, with a market scale of about 40 billion yuan, which is expected to reach 55.7 billion yuan in 2026. It is optimistic about the industry leaders benefiting from the improvement of concentration and import substitution;
Hydrogen energy and green hydrogen meet the requirements of carbon neutralization. The rapid development of photovoltaic and wind power lays the foundation for photovoltaic hydrogen production and wind power hydrogen production. We are optimistic about leading companies with the advantages of green hydrogen industrial chain integration;
For construction machinery, the strong is always strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders and be optimistic about the complete machine and parts companies with product, scale and cost advantages.
The signal of “steady growth” continued to release. On March 29, April 6 and April 13, the national Standing Committee proposed that “the policy of stabilizing the economy should come out early and quickly”, “it is necessary to make timely and flexible use of various monetary policy tools such as refinancing” and “it is necessary to make timely use of monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction”; On April 15, the central bank announced that it would reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25; Since the beginning of this year, more than 70 cities have introduced real estate regulation policies, involving subsidized house purchase, adjustment of provident fund policy, relaxation of settlement restrictions, reduction of down payment ratio, etc.
The issuance of special bonds was significantly advanced, infrastructure investment recovered, and the construction of major projects was accelerated. In 2022q1, the net financing of local government special bonds was 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.09 trillion yuan over the same period of last year; From January to February, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment and real estate investment was 8.61% and 3.7% respectively, of which the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment was significantly warmer than 0.21% in 2021; From January to February, the number of new projects invested by China increased by 1.1 times year-on-year, and the planned total investment of new projects increased by 62.8%. Under the steady growth policy, projects in key areas such as advanced manufacturing, infrastructure construction and “two new and one heavy” are accelerating their implementation.
2022q1 excavator sales volume was – 39% year-on-year, of which export was + 89% year-on-year, smoothing some periodic fluctuations. In March 2022, the sales volume of excavators was 37085 units, with a year-on-year increase of – 53.08%, of which 26556 units were sold in China, with a year-on-year increase of – 63.6%, mainly due to the high sales base in the same period last year and the slowdown in the commencement of downstream projects affected by the epidemic; The export sales volume was 10529 units, a year-on-year increase of + 73.5%, and the global competitiveness of domestic brands continued to improve.
From January to March 2022, the total sales volume of excavators was 77175 units, with a year-on-year increase of – 39.2%; Among them, 51886 units were sold in China, with a year-on-year increase of – 54.3%, and 25289 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 88.6%.
The valuation of the sector is expected to be repaired. With the gradual mitigation of the epidemic and the implementation of a series of policies for steady growth, the second quarter is expected to usher in the peak construction season. Since the beginning of last year, the construction machinery sector has made a lot of corrections. Considering the force of steady growth policy and the high growth of overseas demand, the current industry has the space for valuation and repair; According to the demand transmission order of different segments under the steady growth policy, the leading enterprises of tower crane leasing are expected to benefit first.
The sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China is growing rapidly, and the penetration rate is expected to accelerate. According to the data of China Federation of passenger cars and China Automobile Association, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles from January to March 2022 was 1233000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 150.6% and a penetration rate of 19.0%, of which the penetration rate in a single month in March was about 21.45%.
The demand for power batteries increased explosively, and the proportion of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly. According to the data of China automotive power battery industry alliance, from January to March 2022, the installed capacity of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery accumulated 51.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 120%, of which the installed capacity of ternary battery accounted for 21.4gwh, accounting for 41.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 54.6%; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate was 29.8gwh, accounting for 58.2%, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 217.9%.
Risk tips
New technology development is less than expected
Overseas market expansion is less than expected
Overseas recovery is less than expected, and China’s demand is less than expected
Price fluctuation of raw materials
Blocked parts supply
Product and technology iterations and upgrades are less than expected
The production expansion of customers is less than expected
The progress of hjt technology is less than expected.
