Key investment points:
Current market review
In the current period (4.9 – 4.16), the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 321124, down 1.25%; The CSI 300 index closed at 418875, down 0.99%; SME 100 closed at 777363, down 3.34%; In the current period, Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological industry index closed at 953292, down 1.38%, ranking 12th among Shenwan’s 31 primary industry indexes. Among the seven secondary sectors, medical services and medical devices outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 and small and medium-sized 100.
Important information
FDA approved the use of respiratory samples for covid-19 testing within 3 minutes
Can produce results
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued the first emergency use authorization (EUA) to use exhaled gas to detect whether the sampled person is infected with covid-19 virus. The test mainly detects compounds in respiratory samples related to covid-19 virus infection, and the results can be obtained within three minutes.
In 2022, consumables will be purchased in quantity, and key tasks will be finalized
On April 11, according to the National Medical Insurance Bureau, in order to implement the requirements of the executive meeting of the State Council on “accelerating and expanding” centralized volume procurement, the National Medical Insurance Bureau recently made clear instructions on the alliance centralized procurement to be promoted. By the end of 2022, the number of varieties that provinces (including inter provincial alliances) carry out centralized mining by themselves shall not be less than 100. For key varieties, it is necessary to expand the scope of alliances and optimize the frequency and rhythm of centralized mining.
Beijing’s inactivated vaccine was awarded the Hongkong clinical approval. In April 16th, Chinese bio published that the New Coronavirus inactivated vaccine developed by the China biological Beijing Biological Products Institute of China Pharmaceutical Group was examined and approved by the research ethics committee of the University of Hong Kong and the hospital authority of the Hong Kong Island West hospital. It was officially approved to carry out sequential immune clinical research of covid-19 vaccine in Hong Kong
Core view
In the current period, Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological industry index closed at 953292, down 1.38%, ranking 12th among Shenwan’s 31 primary industry indexes. Among the seven secondary sectors, medical services and medical devices outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 and small and medium-sized 100.
In terms of the epidemic situation, the global Omicron epidemic has eased. From the perspective of the number of newly confirmed cases per day in the world, the number of newly confirmed cases per day this week fell to the level at the end of 2021. The situation of epidemic prevention and control in China is grim and complex. At present, the epidemic prevention policy is still to block social transmission as soon as possible by accelerating nucleic acid testing, the construction of shelter hospitals and the admission of infected people. In terms of vaccination, vaccination has made steady progress. As of April 15, 2022, China has reported 3.311 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine. In terms of detection, the National Health Commission said that up to now, China’s nucleic acid detection capacity has reached 51.65 million tubes / day, ranking a leading position in the world. Since the outbreak, about 11.5 billion people have been tested, providing a strong guarantee for the timely detection of infected persons and the realization of “dynamic clearing”. At present, the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic in the world and some parts of China still shows a multi-point spread trend, with high uncertainty. The demand for covid-19 treatment remains high in the short term. According to the treatment plan of the China Version of New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan, the COVID-19 pneumonia program is gradually adjusted from the first version of antiviral therapy to the current antiviral treatment, immunotherapy and TCM treatment. As covid-19 new drugs for the treatment of pneumonia have been listed one after another, the treatment experience and treatment methods have been further enriched. Pfizer’s oral small molecule drug paxlovid, Chinese made monoclonal antibody drugs (ambacizumab / romisivir monoclonal antibody injection) and various traditional Chinese medicine characteristic therapeutic drugs are included in the ninth edition of the diagnosis and treatment plan. Superimposed on the strong demand caused by the uncertainty of the epidemic in the short term, we believe that the covid-19 treatment industry chain will maintain a high boom, and we suggest to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of covid-19 small molecule drug industry chain, At the same time, we can pay attention to the listed companies deeply involved in covid-19 prevention and treatment drug supply chain.
In terms of news, on April 11, according to the National Medical Insurance Bureau, in order to implement the requirements of the executive meeting of the State Council on “accelerating and expanding” centralized volume procurement, the National Medical Insurance Bureau recently made clear instructions on the alliance centralized procurement to be promoted. By the end of 2022, the number of varieties collected by each province (including inter provincial alliance) shall not be less than 100, and must include chemical drugs, Chinese patent drugs, orthopedic trauma, oral implants, drug balloons and other consumables. At the same time, for key varieties, expand the scope of alliance and optimize the frequency and rhythm of centralized purchase. The overall logic of centralized procurement has not changed, and the momentum of large-scale step-by-step promotion of volume procurement has not decreased.
On the whole, we believe that the focus of market repair may continue to focus on sectors with marginal improvement and valuation repair logic. At the time point when valuation switching is gradually approaching, the advance layout needs to pay particular attention to the sustainability of marginal improvement and growth. In the long run, with the continuous promotion of the procurement of drugs and consumables, enterprises with high safety margin, strong innovation ability, rich product pipelines and good competition pattern are expected to continue to benefit in the long cycle. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of innovative drugs and innovative drug industry chain, high-end medical devices, medical consumption terminals and medical consumption with scarcity and consumption attributes, and tap the second-line blue chips with relatively low valuation:
1) innovative drugs and the industry chain of innovative drugs and innovative drugs, including synthetic and specialist innovative drug enterprises, CXO industry, and the industrial chain of innovative drugs, including comprehensive and specialist innovative drug enterprises, and CXO industry. It is suggested to focus on ‘ Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ‘ \ and Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) etc;
2) it is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) and Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) as the leader of high-end medical devices with outstanding import substitution ability;
3) for medical consumption terminals benefiting from increased market concentration, it is recommended to pay attention to Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) and Dian Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(300244) etc;
4) biological products enterprises with scarcity and consumption attributes, including Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) and Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) .
Risk tips: covid-19 epidemic fluctuation risk and market adjustment risk
