Key news tracking this week
The Environmental Resources Department of the national development and Reform Commission held a special meeting to study carbon peak and carbon neutralization. The meeting requested that in 2022, we should put carbon peak and carbon neutralization in a prominent position in environmental resources work, focus on accelerating the improvement of the “1 + n” policy system for carbon peak and carbon neutralization, and promote relevant departments to formulate and issue implementation plans and safeguard measures in different fields and industries.
Price tracking comments on key products this week
WTI oil price rose 4.9% to USD 78.9/barrel this week.
Key injection sub industries: this week, the prices of TDI / viscose staple fiber / polymerized MDI / ethylene glycol / silicone / pure MDI / ethylene PVC / calcium carbide PVC / urea / DMF / viscose filament increased by 7.5% / 6% / 5.7% / 4.9% / 4.7% / 1.9% / 1.2% / 1.2% / 0.6% / 0.1% month on month; The prices of caustic soda / light soda / heavy soda / VA / liquid methionine / Spandex / acetic acid decreased by 8% / 4.3% / 3.7% / 2.8% / 1.8% / 1.6% / 0.8% month on month respectively; The price of VE / solid methionine / rubber / titanium dioxide remained unchanged.
The top five sub industries of this week’s increase: spirodirin (97%), East China (+ 28.6%), American LPG (Texas) (+ 16.8%), polymerized MDI (imported) (+ 16.8%), n-butanol (East China) (+ 15%), calcium pantothenate 98% (domestic) (+ 13.2%).
Caustic soda: the overall transaction atmosphere of China’s liquid soda market this week is general. Towards the end of the year, the overall demand atmosphere in the downstream of alkali consumption is general. At present, there are enterprises in Shandong to reduce the burden for maintenance, the export situation is OK, and the enterprises have a strong willingness to support the price. Baichuan is expected to have little price fluctuation next week, focusing on large, stable and small transactions.
TDI: this week, China’s TDI market price has been rising in a wide range, and the suppliers are still limited in sales. At present, the goods are mainly delivered in multiple rows, and the on-site spot circulation is tight, but the terminal is deterred from the current high price, and the large volume of real orders needs to be expected.
Market performance of chemical sector this week
The basic chemical sector fell 4.12% compared with last week, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.39% compared with last week. The basic chemical sector underperformed the market by 1.74 percentage points, ranking 25th in all sectors. According to Shen Wan’s classification, the major weekly increases in the basic chemical sub industry include: petroleum trade (+ 7.31%), soda ash (+ 5.13%), polyester (+ 3.28%), petroleum processing (+ 2.26%), and textile chemicals (+ 1.57%).
Key sub industry views
(1) many factors affect the 22-year boom of the sub industry. The overall profitability of the pesticide industry is expected to improve in the 22-year period when the cultivated land area is expected to increase, the grain price remains at a high level, China’s supply is orderly and the price rises in the fourth quarter. It is mainly recommended that Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) ; The prosperity of the tire industry has bottomed out, and the new energy field has brought development opportunities. It is suggested to pay attention to Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . The boom of viscose industry is expected to reverse, and Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) is recommended. (2) The demand economy is relatively weak, and the fields of semiconductor materials, military materials and other new materials are independent and controllable in the medium and long term; Focus on the chemical synthesis platform company Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) and China’s private gas leading enterprise Suzhou Jinhong Gas Co.Ltd(688106) . (3) The downstream demand is stable, and great attention is paid to the subdivided fields such as photovoltaic, wind power, new energy and sugar substitutes; It is recommended that Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) be the leader of new energy functional materials and Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) be the leader of global sweeteners. (4) The vertical and horizontal expansion of the leader, prominent integration advantages, and the profit center is expected to rise; Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) are recommended.
Risk warning: risk of large fluctuation of crude oil price; Covid-19 epidemic leads to less demand than expected risk; Safety and environmental protection risk
