Express: in March, the express industry was significantly impacted by the epidemic; SF Q1’s performance met expectations, and Shentong Q1 reversed its losses; Recently, the logistics supply guarantee policy has continued to work, the road freight index has kept rising, and the inflection point of the recovery of express logistics has arrived. We continue to recommend leading enterprises.
1) in March, the growth rate of the express industry was significantly impacted by the epidemic, and the unit price fell slightly: the National Post Office disclosed that the National Express business volume in March was 8.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; Business income reached 81.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. ① The negative growth rate of the industry in March was mainly affected by the spread of the national epidemic, the closure of some cities, poor road traffic and so on; ② In March, the unit price decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline remained narrow. The unit price in March decreased by 4.6% month on month compared with that from January to February, which was mainly affected by the off-season, price fluctuations in some grain producing areas and the reduction of cargo weight. The overall price was in line with expectations; ③ In terms of grain producing areas, Yiwu’s piece quantity decreased by 15.5% year-on-year in March, and the price increased by 12.1% year-on-year. It was flat month on month in February, and the average price decreased by 0.16 yuan month on month from January to February; The number of pieces in Guangzhou increased by 12.8% year-on-year in March; The number of pieces in Jieyang increased by 11.4% year-on-year in March. South China (except Shenzhen) was less affected by the epidemic, and the demand performance was relatively better. Looking forward to the future, we believe that with the promotion of logistics supply guarantee policy and the mitigation of the epidemic, the demand is expected to be replenished.
2) the logistics supply guarantee policy continued to work, and the road freight flow picked up. SF was named by the Shanghai Commercial Commission to ensure the supply: ① on April 11, the State Post Office notified that the management departments at all levels should take postal and express delivery as the focus of people’s livelihood; ② On April 15, the Ministry of transport held a meeting to draw up a list and wall charts for the current problems in some places, such as the overweight of epidemic prevention traffic control and “one size fits all”, the blocked passage of trucks, the congestion at the exit of highways and other logistics operations.
③ on April 15, the Ministry of industry and information technology pointed out that it would spare no effort to do a good job in accurate epidemic prevention and control, ensure smooth logistics and stabilize the industrial chain and supply chain. ④ On April 14, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce issued the guidelines for the use of international domestic material transfer stations in Pinghu City, Zhejiang Province, Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province and the western suburb of Shanghai, naming SF as a logistics enterprise for the supply of domestic materials in Shanghai. We believe that the current policy continues to pay attention to the guarantee of logistics supply and smooth road freight transportation, and the policy strength is continuously strengthened and the supervision is continuously refined. According to G7 data, as of April 16, the national / Yangtze River Delta highway vehicle freight flow index increased by 6.7% / 8% month on month respectively, and the throughput index of express distribution center continued to rise, indicating that the express logistics industry has been effectively boosted and recovered recently, and the inflection point of industry recovery has reached.
3) SF Q1’s performance is in line with expectations, and its operation in March may be better than expected, and it is optimistic about the medium and long-term value: SF announced that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 950-1.1 billion yuan, with a loss of 989 million yuan in the same period last year; The non net profit deducted was RMB 850million to RMB 1billion, with a loss of RMB 1.13 billion in the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate of overall parts volume of 22q1 SF was – 1.5%, of which the year-on-year growth rate of parts volume from January to march was + 10.01%, – 8.33% and – 7.91% respectively. (1) We estimate that the main non net profit deducted by Q1 SF is about 500600 million yuan. This year’s Q1 profit is disturbed by the Spring Festival in February and the frequent epidemic in many places in March; (2) Since the second half of 2021, the company has adjusted the structure of e-commerce parts, actively reduced the number of low gross profit products, superimposed the impact of the epidemic, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of the company’s short-term parts; In late March, due to the epidemic situation, Shunfeng closed its outlets and gradually reduced. At the same time, it actively connected with the anti epidemic and undertook the material supply guarantee business (trunk transportation, urban distribution, etc.), so the business situation in March is expected to be better than expected; (3) The overall national logistics control policy is clearly relaxed, the policy is first, and the company’s fundamentals are expected to recover, maintaining the view of medium and long-term allocation and purchase. 4) Shentong’s performance in the first quarter reversed its losses year-on-year, focusing on continuous improvement: Shentong announced that it expected a loss of 840950 million yuan in 2021, of which Q4 expected a loss of 602712 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22q1 was 90-120 million yuan. We estimate that the single note profit of 22q1 is 0.04 yuan, which is basically the same as that of 21q4 (excluding impairment). We believe that the current price war in the industry is slowing down, the company’s operation is improving, and the company has successfully turned around its losses. Pay attention to the continuous improvement of the company’s performance.
In March, the express industry was seriously affected by the epidemic. In April, the express logistics industry continued to recover and the logistics supply guarantee policy continued to work. We generally believe that the worst impact has passed and the inflection point of the industry has emerged. For Tongda system, the single ticket profit of each company remains at a high level, the demand recovery is optimistic in the future, and the leading performance continues to improve; For SF, short-term operation adjustment is in place, superimposed with strict cost control, the company’s performance continues to improve, medium and long-term benefit effectiveness, international and other diversified business layout, with growth and high allocation value. A shares mainly recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and American stocks are optimistic about China Express.
Aviation: the epidemic led to a decline in aviation capacity investment, passenger demand and flight execution in March. We pay attention to the improvement of the supply and demand pattern of the industry after the epidemic is alleviated; Overseas tourism will enter a recovery cycle, and international passenger transport business is expected to increase rapidly after the epidemic is alleviated.
1) under the impact of the epidemic, China’s aviation capacity investment and passenger volume declined in March, with China Southern Airlines and spring and autumn leading in passenger seating rate: this week, the main listed airlines announced the main operation data in March: ① China Southern Airlines ask – 56.01% year-on-year and RPK – 62.36% year-on-year; The average occupancy rate was 64.13%, with a year-on-year increase of -10.84pts; ② Air China ask was – 63.3% year-on-year and RPK was – 70.1% year-on-year; The average occupancy rate was 59.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -13.4pts; ③ China Eastern Airlines ask -62.35% year-on-year and RPK -69.32% year-on-year; The average occupancy rate was 59.43%, with a year-on-year increase of -13.50pts; ④ Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) ask – 48.87% YoY, RPK – 59.62% YoY; The average occupancy rate was 64.08%, with a year-on-year increase of -17.06 PTS; ⑤ Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ask – 48.09% year on year, RPK – 59.65% year on year; The average occupancy rate was 67.53%, with a year-on-year increase of -19.36pts. On the whole, the performance of all airlines is basically the same, with the passenger seat rate leading in the spring and autumn. Among the three airlines, China Southern Airlines has a relatively small impact on the demand, and the passenger seat rate is leading. (1) In March, the epidemic broke out in Shenzhen, Jilin and Shanghai, and China’s travel demand was significantly impacted; At the same time, due to the gradual opening of overseas markets, the outbreak of Omicron has been repeated, the number of international flights has increased, and the volume of international lines has continued to decline; (2) In this round of epidemic, first tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen have been seriously impacted. China Southern Airlines has a large number of aircraft. The proportion of second and third tier airport routes is greater than that of Air China and China Eastern Airlines, and the impact is relatively small; At the same time, China Eastern Airlines was impacted by aviation safety accidents, and the number of flights decreased significantly in late March.
(3) In terms of passenger seat rate, China Southern Airlines leads the industry in the spring and Autumn period. Among the three major airlines, China Southern Airlines leads Air China and China Eastern Airlines in passenger seat rate.
2) in April, the number of flights executed fell in the same period and month on month, and the operation of Airlines was under pressure: according to the data of aviation steward, a total of 18147 flights were executed by civil aviation passenger flights in the past week (04.09-04.15), with a month on month ratio of – 2.5%, compared with – 81.9% in 2019 and – 80.7% year-on-year in 2021. China Southern Airlines / China Eastern Airlines / Air China carried out 3300 / 2082 / 2037 flights, with a month on month ratio of – 12.9% / – 4.8% / – 15.4%, compared with – 77.2% / – 86.0% / – 78.2% in 2019 and – 78.6% / – 86.0% / – 79.3% in 2021; There were 680 / 274 flights in spring and autumn / Jixiang, with a month on month ratio of + 31.0% / – 21.9%, compared with – 74.4% / – 90.8% in 2019 and – 79.3% / – 91.5% in 2021. Shanghai will continue to carry out nucleic acid testing for all staff, implement differentiated prevention and control according to the test results, carry out step-by-step management, continue to control the flow, block the spread of the epidemic, and realize the dynamic zeroing of social aspects. We believe that there is no inflection point in the short-term national epidemic, and we pay attention to the demand and delay the release.
3) many overseas countries have made efforts to promote the recovery of tourism, and the volume of international aviation business is expected to increase: with the increase of covid-19 vaccination rate, the global tourism industry in many places shows a recovery momentum. Since the Philippines allowed tourists from 157 visa free countries to enter the country without isolation in February this year, nearly 100000 tourists have arrived in the Philippines; After Thailand restarted the entry quarantine free measures, about 150000 tourists entered Thailand from March 1 to 18; In Europe, the holiday is expected to come in April this year, and the tourism industry is expected to usher in the first peak of the year; The Spanish Tourism Federation predicts that the recovery trend of Spanish tourism industry will be further consolidated in 2022, and the recovery pace is expected to accelerate from April. It is expected that the annual tourism output value will return to about 90% of that before the epidemic. According to the latest prediction of the United Nations World Tourism Organization, compared with 2021, the number of international tourists in 2022 may increase by 30% – 78%, but it will still be more than 50% lower than the pre epidemic level. Under the current recovery trend of international travel, the International Air Transport Association recently predicted that the loss of the global aviation industry will be significantly reduced in 2022, from $51.8 billion in 2021 to $11.6 billion this year. We believe that with the gradual effectiveness of the boosting measures taken by various countries, the international tourism industry will usher in a recovery, and the international aviation business is expected to enter a recovery period.
In March, the aviation industry was affected by the epidemic in China. The aviation capacity investment, passenger turnover, passenger volume and passenger seating rate of the aviation company showed a decline, the flight execution volume decreased month on month, and the operation of the aviation company was under pressure. Optimistic about the performance elasticity of airlines brought by the rebound in demand and the tightening of supply side after the improvement of the epidemic situation; The international tourism industry will usher in a recovery, and the international aviation business is expected to enter a recovery period. Focus on recommending Air China Limited(601111) (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); Low cost aviation leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) ; China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , with high proportion of Chinese lines and high performance flexibility; China Eastern Airlines with obvious location advantages; Pay attention to regional airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) .
Airport: airport operation is still a key logistics node affected by the epidemic, and the policy emphasizes that it shall not be shut down at will. The airport was greatly impacted by the epidemic. According to the flight steward data (04.09-04.15), the capital / Hongqiao / Baiyun / Bao’an / Pudong China carried out 872 / 27 / 1370 / 1964 / 38 flights, with a month on month ratio of – 21.4% / – 27.0% / – 47.6% / + 24.8% / + 11.8%, compared with – 89.2% / – 99.4% / – 79.7% / – 64.4% / – 99.2% in 2019. In April 11th, the State Council issued a circular on the New Coronavirus infectious disease prevention and control joint control mechanism, which strictly prohibits unauthorized blocking or closing of highways, ordinary highways and channel locks. It is not allowed to shut down expressway service areas, ports and wharfs, railway stations and airports without authorization. We believe that the short-term airport aviation business will decline due to the disturbance of the epidemic and the impact of epidemic prevention policies. If the epidemic situation improves in the future, China’s international aviation passenger flow is expected to gradually recover; At the same time, as a key node of logistics, the recent “logistics guarantee” policy emphasizes that the airport shall not be shut down at will, and the pressure may be relieved gradually with the implementation of the policy. In the long run, the airport’s aviation business is stable, while the tax-free industry has huge space. Listed airports will continue to benefit from tax-free dividends in the future, focusing on the airport leaders Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Highway and Railway: the Ministry of transport further implemented the work of ensuring the smooth transportation of freight logistics, reviewed and rectified the setting of highway epidemic prevention checkpoints, the closure of toll stations and service areas, and promoted the establishment of a unified and standardized pass system: on April 12, the Ministry of transport issued the notice on further coordinating the prevention and control of highway traffic epidemic and ensuring the smooth transportation, requiring relevant departments to set up and improve the highway epidemic prevention checkpoints in the region Conduct a comprehensive thorough review of the closure of toll stations and service areas, and immediately resume normal operation if the closure does not meet the requirements; If the shutdown meets the requirements, do a good job of standardized management according to relevant regulations, take effective measures for epidemic prevention and treatment, and restore the use as soon as possible to ensure that the rectification is completed before April 15. On April 14, the notice of the special class for traffic control and transportation support of the comprehensive group of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council on making every effort to ensure the smooth transportation of freight logistics was issued, and the format of the vehicle pass for the transportation of key materials was published to promote the establishment of a unified and standardized pass system to ensure the transportation of key materials in epidemic affected areas. We believe that in view of the current logistics problems in some places, such as overweight and “one size fits all” of epidemic prevention traffic control, blocked truck traffic, highway congestion and so on, government departments are fully implementing various measures to ensure the orderly operation of logistics, the obstruction of road logistics will be gradually improved, and the release pace of transportation demand will be accelerated.
This week’s investment strategy: the logistics supply guarantee policy continues to work, the road freight flow rebounds, and the industry ushers in a turning point of recovery. For the access system, the single ticket profit of each company remains at a high level, and it is optimistic about the improvement of leading performance; SF has adjusted its operation in place and is optimistic about the value of medium and long-term layout. China’s demand for aviation has been restrained by the epidemic in the short term, but the recovery cycle of the industry has not been changed. At present, scientific epidemic prevention has released positive signals, while the certainty of supply has slowed down. It is still optimistic about the reversal of supply and demand in the aviation industry for a long time, and the superposition of fare market-oriented reform has opened up flexible space. Combination of this week: S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Air China Limited(601111) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Risk tips:
1) the risk of macroeconomic downturn will have a great impact on the overall demand for transportation.
2) the price competition in the express industry exceeds the market expectation. At present, the price war in the express industry is generally controllable, but it does not rule out a large-scale price war, eroding the profits of listed companies.
3) risk of rising oil price and labor cost. Transportation and labor costs, as the main costs of transportation companies, may face the risk of rising oil prices and sharply rising labor costs.
