Report released this week
"Series of in-depth reports on beauty economy - where is the ceiling of the hair transplant industry? -- an in-depth study on the penetration rate and willingness rate from the perspective of intergenerational rotation"
In depth report | China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : centralized management of key flow of high wall and wide grain storage card, tax-free overlord in the post epidemic era (this week refers to April 11 to April 15, 2022, the same below)
The peak of new cases (confirmed cases + asymptomatic infections) in Shanghai may have appeared this week. On March 16, 2022, Shanghai began to implement grid screening, followed by closed management in Pudong on March 28, closed management in Puxi on April 1, and unified management in the whole city on April 4 and April 6. Since March 16, the number of new asymptomatic infections in the city has shown an increasing trend every day, reaching a daily peak on April 13, lasting 29 days.
The epidemic situation in Shenzhen and Jilin is expected to begin to reverse after the peak or now. Referring to the development of the Omicron epidemic in Shenzhen and Jilin, we found that: 1) the epidemic in Shenzhen lasted about 40 days in total, and it lasted about 20 days from the peak to subside; 2) Jilin: the epidemic in Jilin lasted about one and a half months until April 17, reaching the first peak period (more than 4000 cases per day) for about half a month, and the whole peak period lasted more than 20 days, Then it began to improve significantly, and the daily increase decreased to 500600 cases, showing a significant downward trend as a whole. Referring to the development process of the epidemic situation in Shenzhen and Jilin, we found that the epidemic situation is not inverted V-shaped from the peak to the bottom, but basically has one channel and several waves repeatedly. It takes about one month for Shanghai to reach the peak, and it is expected to begin to reverse after the peak.
Investment suggestion: look forward to the recovery of consumption and travel after the epidemic improves. Judging from the newly added cases in Japan, Shanghai has made marginal improvement. It is expected that after the epidemic gradually improves, offline economic activities will open up and the recovery of terminal consumption and travel sector will be expected. It is recommended to recommend tax-free leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , and pay attention to investment opportunities in the airport sector, including Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Beijing Capital Airport, Meilan Airport, Air China Limited(601111) , etc.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; The prosperity of terminal consumption decreased; Intensified market competition, etc.
