\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 812 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the performance forecast of the first quarterly report of 2022. The annual revenue of 2021 was 7.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.37%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.718 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 143.60%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.567 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.17%. In the first quarter of 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 865950 million, with a year-on-year increase of 100.19% – 119.86%, and the net profit deducted from the non parent company is expected to be 835920 million, with a year-on-year increase of 106.20% – 127.19%.
Comments:
Lithium diaphragm faucet, performance in line with expectations. The rapid growth of the company’s revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company is in line with our expectations. The main reason is the rapid development of the company’s diaphragm business. In 2021, the sales volume of diaphragm business was 78700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.46%, the revenue was 6.91 billion yuan, accounting for 86.61%, a year-on-year increase of 99.57%, the gross profit was 3.679 billion yuan, and the gross profit contribution rate was 92.42%.
The advantages of lithium diaphragm leader are fully displayed, the production capacity is accelerated, and the future can be expected. As the industry leader, the company has large-scale, cost control and technical advantages. In terms of production capacity, at the end of 2021, the company’s lithium diaphragm production capacity reached 5 billion square meters, ranking first in the world. Diaphragm production bases have been arranged in Shanghai, Wuxi, Jiangxi, Zhuhai and Suzhou. In the future, the company will continue to promote the investment and construction of production lines, including Chongqing (3 have been put into operation and 13 have not been put into operation), Jiangsu (Civil preparation stage), Suzhou (completion of foundation construction), etc. In terms of expenses, in 2021, the company’s management expense rate / sales expense rate / financial expense rate were 2.71% / 0.93% / 1.92% respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.93pct/0.39pct/2.49pct respectively. In the future, with the expansion of the company’s scale, the expense rate is expected to decline further. In terms of technology, the company’s online coating technology has been officially applied in 2021. Due to reducing the winding, slitting and other processes before coating, the process will greatly improve the production efficiency, reduce the production cost and further improve the product quality.
Deep binding of downstream leading customers, strategic cooperation and dredging of the industrial chain. The company’s products have good stability and consistency, which can meet the customized and diversified needs of customers. At the same time, the company has signed long-term diaphragm supply agreements with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , China Innovation airlines, etc. In addition, the company has conducted in-depth strategic investment cooperation with customers, such as the joint venture with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ; Cooperate with Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) to build a 1.6 billion square meter lithium diaphragm project, with a total investment of 5.2 billion yuan. The company’s in-depth cooperation with downstream customers is conducive to the company’s product sales.
The boom of the golden track continued, and the demand for diaphragm maintained rapid growth. The downstream new energy vehicle and energy storage market is growing rapidly. The production capacity of the company’s main customers is about 396gwh in 2020, while the production capacity is expected to reach 1396gwh in 2025, corresponding to the growth of diaphragm demand of more than 15 billion square meters per year. As the leading enterprise of lithium battery diaphragm, the company fully benefits from the high prosperity of the golden track.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 14.0 billion yuan, 19.51 billion yuan and 25.3 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 75.4%, 39.4% and 29.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.967 billion yuan, 7.008 billion yuan and 9.286 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 82.8%, 41.1% and 32.5%. The current share price corresponds to PE of 34.47, 24.43 and 18.44 times from 2022 to 2024 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk factors: industry demand is less than expected risk; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The capacity layout is less than expected.
