\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 001 Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) )
Events
The company released its annual report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 14.798 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.34%; Among them, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 4.282 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 958 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.5%; The company’s performance is slightly higher than the previous performance express. In addition, by the end of 2021, the net cash flow from operating activities of the company was 5.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.94%; The company plans to pay a dividend of 7 yuan for every 10 shares and transfer 2 shares.
Key investment points
The performance in 2021 was in line with expectations, and Q4 revenue hit another record high
According to the company’s annual report, the company’s nutrition business revenue increased by 55.6% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin decreased by 10.74pct to 47% year-on-year. According to the statistics of Boya Hexun, the average market prices of VA, VE, biotin and methionine in China in 2021 were 314.7/80.4/69.4/20.2 yuan / kg respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 19.9% / 24% / – 62.1% / 1.7%. The substantial growth of the company’s business revenue was mainly due to the release of methionine and Heilongjiang fermentation method projects, and the decline of gross profit margin was mainly affected by the product structure of business products. The essence and flavor business income increased by 14.5% compared with the same period last year, and gross profit margin decreased by 13.34 PCT to 42.13% compared with the same period last year. The decrease in gross profit margin was mainly affected by the price rise of raw materials. In a single quarter, the company’s 21q4 revenue increased by 31.3% month on month, another record high, mainly due to the simultaneous rise of volume and price in the peak sales season, and the average market price of VA / VE / biotin / methionine Q4 was 1.12% / 13.4% / 35.4% / 11.7% month on month. Q4 net profit was flat month on month, mainly due to the rise of Q4 raw material price, and the gross profit margin decreased by 4.8 PCT to 38.84% month on month. In addition, Q4 increased 94 million R & D expenses and 69 million impairment losses month on month, making the company’s net profit margin 22.42% and 7.12 PCT month on month.
European natural gas prices are high, and the prices of vitamins and methionine are expected to rise
According to the data of Boya Hexun, the average market price of the company’s main product VA / VE / biotin / methionine 22q1 in China was 236.0 yuan / kg, 88.2 yuan / kg, 68.5 yuan / kg and 210577 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 35.25% / + 18.23% / + 4.7% / – 3.44% and a month-on-month increase of – 17.5% / – 1.4% / – 16.4% / + 0.4% respectively. Considering that the price of VA, VE and methionine in Europe is higher than that in China, the price of the essence and fragrance of the company is higher in 2022. We expect that the 22Q1 performance of the company is expected to be better than the market expectation. In addition, considering the significant increase in the concentration of VE industry reshuffle, the tight supply will enter the business cycle, plus the sharp rise in the price of natural gas in Europe and the uncertainty of supply, we believe that the prices of Q2 vitamins and methionine may rise. On the other hand, the company previously disclosed that the intermediate of Pfizer covid-19 oral medicine, carbonic anhydride and azabicycl, will be put into operation in Q2, which is also expected to thicken the company’s profit.
New projects are put into operation to accelerate growth, product line extension to reduce performance fluctuations
According to the company’s annual report, the company’s projects under construction were 2.985 billion, a year-on-year increase of 125%. In December last year, the company announced that it would continue to expand the production of methionine in cooperation with Zhenhai Refining and chemical, set up a new nylon material subsidiary, and the adiponitrile project is worth looking forward to. Recently, it was disclosed that the company’s covid-19 oral drug intermediate carbonic anhydride and azabicyclic project are in the application for approval. Once put into operation, it is expected to become an important product of the company’s API business. The company has the advantages of integrated industrial chain and scale. We expect that the company will have strong competitiveness. The company has invested heavily to build four product platforms around acetone, hydrocyanic acid, phosgene and fermentation, and is expected to become a leading comprehensive fine chemical company in the world.
Profit forecast and valuation
Adjust the company’s EPS forecast from 2022 to 2024 to 2.39/2.97/3.76 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE is 13.06/10.49/8.29 times respectively. The company is the leading vitamin and essence spice in the world. In recent years, the fixed assets have increased substantially, and new capacity has entered the production period. The cost competitiveness is strong, and the endogenous growth power is strong. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The prices of raw materials and products fluctuate greatly; Exchange rate and trade risks; Brain drain risk; Environmental protection policy risk, etc.
