Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal plates are recommended. This week (1.4-1.7), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.66%, the CSI 300 index fell 2.39%, the SW nonferrous index fell 5.39%, Comex gold fell 0.27% and silver fell 2.33%. Among the prices of major industrial metals, LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin changed by 3.89%, – 0.83%, 0.06%, 0.17%, 0.31%, 2.60% and 3.89% respectively; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in major industrial metal inventories changed by – 2.38%, – 4.69%, – 2.86%, – 0.37%, – 1.61% and 2.48% respectively.
Industrial metal: energy shortage supports the price, and the price of industrial metal shows an upward trend as a whole. Core view: in copper, the supply side has recovered. Affected by the Fed’s tough tightening monetary policy, copper prices fell slightly, but low inventories still support prices. In terms of aluminum, the energy shortage in Europe has led to continuous concerns about aluminum supply, strong downstream demand in China, continuous destocking, and continuous rise in aluminum prices. Electrolytic aluminum went to the warehouse for 23000 tons to 776000 tons every week, and the profit rebounded sharply to 4988 yuan / ton due to the decline of the cost side. Focus on: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) , etc.
New energy metals: the supply decreased at the end of the year, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, and the price of lithium salt rose rapidly. Core view: in terms of cobalt, the epidemic in South Africa has led to a small number of cobalt intermediates to Hong Kong, good demand for ternary downstream, entering the pre Festival preparation period, and the price of cobalt salt is expected to continue to rise. In terms of lithium, in the first November of 2021, China had a total of 2.422 million new energy passenger vehicles insured, with higher pure electric performance, and the market share increased to 82%. The shipments of upstream and traders decreased, the demand for downstream goods preparation was strong, and the supply and demand remained tight, supporting the rapid rise of lithium salt prices. In the rare earth sector, Baotou Steel and China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) adjusted the price of rare earth concentrate in this quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 65%, and the rising cost may push the price of rare earth to continue to rise; Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) etc.
Precious metals: the high number of covid-19 infections in the United States supports the price of gold. Core view: the attitude of the minutes of the December meeting of the Federal Reserve is hawkish, and the rise of US bond yields suppresses the price of gold. However, the number of covid-19 infected people in the United States hit a global record of 1 million on Monday, and there is no sign of slowing down in the spread of Omicron epidemic, which will boost the demand for gold hedging. We continue to be optimistic about the investment value of gold. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Zhaojin gold industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: the recovery of demand is less than expected, the release of supply is more than expected, and the policy uncertainty is enhanced
