\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 139 Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) )
Key investment points
Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) : mathematical solution provider of Life Science + medical innovation
Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) is a provider of integrated solutions for life science and medical innovation integrating R & D, production and sales. In the field of biological low humidity storage, in 2017, China’s market share ranked first (market share 35.8%) and the world’s third (market share 10.7%). From 2018, the company transformed into an IOT and integrated full solution provider, starting from scenario users, exploring customer needs and expanding the scope of services. The company mainly provides comprehensive solutions for scenarios such as sample safety, drug and reagent safety, blood safety and vaccine free safety, and extends a series of value-added services based on scenarios
Due to the two-way impact of the epidemic, covid-19 vaccine storage and vaccination demand in 2021 may contribute 7% to the company’s short-term performance. It mainly includes ① the income from the construction of health system in many provinces and cities in 2021h1 is about 70 million; ② The mobile vaccination program may contribute 8000w in 2021. But at the same time, the epidemic has had a negative impact on some businesses: ① the promotion of vaccine city network is blocked, and only about 1000 vaccination sites were newly expanded in 2021; ② Overseas revenue was delayed due to the impact of rising sea freight prices. We estimate that excluding the demand driven by the epidemic and the consolidation of the three great undertakings, the endogenous growth of the company still exceeds 40%.
(1) sample safety: the largest revenue segment, the stock scenario is increased by the number of samples, and the incremental space is driven by new products, new scenarios and overseas expansion. From 2015 to 2021, the segment revenue CAGR was 23.26%, of which the revenue in 2021 was 874 million, yoy 21.78%, accounting for 41.12% of the total revenue. In 2021, the company accelerated the layout of overseas dealers, and the impact of shipping price on delivery gradually weakened, and the revenue is expected to accelerate significantly in 2022. We predict that the company’s sample security scenario will maintain a growth rate of 25% from 2022 to 2024. With the accelerated expansion of biosafety products such as biosafety cabinets, incubators and centrifuges, the proportion of Internet of things will gradually rise from 20% to 25%.
(2) drug and reagent safety scenario: the stock business is growing steadily, and the new scenario promotes new space. The revenue of 20182021 segment is CAGR 32%, the revenue in 2021 is 513 million, and YoY 49.26%. 2021h1 is driven by the construction of epidemic prevention and control system. Judging from H2 and the nature of the project, it may not be sustainable. The long-term promotion is mainly the growth of refrigerated biological drugs (CAGR higher than 16% from 2021 to 2025) and the exploration of new scenes such as hospital intelligent medication and intelligent operating room. We predict that the drug and reagent safety scenario will maintain an increase of about 20% from 2022 to 2024, of which the proportion of the Internet of things sector will rise from 5.99% to 8.16%.
(3) vaccine safety scenario: the construction of vaccine city network is accelerated, driven by rigid demand + intelligent management. From 2018 to 2021, the revenue of vaccine safety sector was CAGR 66%, the revenue in 2021 was 503 million, and YoY 102.71%. Among them, the revenue of vaccine Internet of things from 2019 to 2021 is CAGR 139%, which is the main driving force for the high growth of the sector. From the perspective of composition, the vaccine sector is mainly divided into ① replication of China’s smart vaccination sites: the expansion of vaccination sites in 2021 was hindered by the upsurge of covid-19 vaccination, with about 1000 new sites, a total of more than 4000, and a penetration rate of about 6.12%. We assume that the income from the transformation of a single vaccination site is about 150000 yuan. With the gradual stabilization of the epidemic situation, the increase of covid-19 vaccination rate and the landing of multi provincial and municipal urban networks, the scale effect or replication will accelerate. Referring to the construction rhythm of the company from 2019 to 2021, assuming that the company adds 2000, 3200 and 4800 copies from 2022 to 2024, it will contribute 300 million, 480 million and 720 million revenue, and the penetration rate will gradually increase from 6% to 21%. ② Mobile vaccination program: the annual contribution in 2021 may be 80million yuan. Referring to the current vaccination number and growth rate, it is assumed that the income of mobile vaccination scheme is directly proportional to the number of new covid-19 vaccines. We speculate that from 2022 to 2024, the number of new inoculants will be 1.4 billion, 980 million and 588 million, with corresponding income of 40 million, 28 million and 16.8 million. ③ Overseas project delivery. The amount of a single project is large or has annual volatility. Referring to the successful global vaccine Alliance (GAVI) 5-year funding plan and new contracts, we believe that the company’s overseas direct sales are expected to maintain a rapid growth of CAGR of 40% from 2022 to 2024. Referring to the above split, we predict that the company’s vaccine safety scenario will maintain a growth rate of 55%, 50% and 45% from 2022 to 2024, in which the proportion of Internet of things will rise from 65% to 76%.
(4) blood safety scenario: the implementation of blood city network is accelerated, and the extension + endogenous synergy is becoming more and more obvious. From 2018 to 2021, the segment revenue CAGR was 88%, the revenue in 2021 reached 228 million and yoy 266%, which was mainly driven by the consolidation of three great undertakings. Excluding the consolidation revenue, we estimate that the endogenous growth of the company exceeds 50%. In 2021, the company launched the first smart city blood network – Qingdao blood network, and quickly copied and promoted it in Hubei, Zhejiang and other places. It is expected to be delivered in 2022h1. We believe that the blood safety scenario is mainly driven by the increase of blood donation in the long term (about 12% CAGR in the blood storage market in 20192027). In the short term, projects such as smart city blood network, blood center and blood station will be implemented. We believe that there is an obvious demand gap in the blood safety sector, the Internet of things scheme is gradually recognized by users, and the synergy between the three great cause technology platforms and the company’s original business in multiple blood scenarios is gradually emerging. We expect that the company’s blood safety scenario will maintain a growth rate of 50% from 2022 to 2024, and the Internet of things sector will gradually increase from 97% to 98%.
Future development: towards a provider of comprehensive solutions for life sciences and medical innovation
(1) focus on the two digital scenarios of life science and medical innovation, and accelerate the layout of endogenous + extension. By 2021, we believe that the construction of the company’s digital and information-based Internet of things products has been basically mature. In the future, we will build an integrated Internet of things solution of equipment, software and consumables through investment and accelerated layout for the two digital scenarios of life science and medical innovation, and extend it to the pharmaceutical industry, public health, hospital intelligent medication and intelligent operating room. We are optimistic about the development direction of the company to improve user experience from the perspective of scenario and market space from the perspective of product.
(2) developing new space for aviation cold chain is a new proof of technology and IOT capability.
On November 6, 2021, Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) reached strategic cooperation with air Bridge Cargo Airlines, and Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) officially entered the field of temperature control medicine international aviation logistics, which is expected to break the monopoly of foreign enterprises in the field of technology and products in the field of aviation temperature control logistics high-end equipment, and also marks the beginning of Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) globalization.
(3) accelerate the expansion of overseas markets and release strong momentum. The company’s overseas revenue increased from 100 million yuan in 2016 to 533 million yuan in 2021, with a CAGR of 39.7%. ① Overseas distribution: we will continue to improve the network structure around the three dimensions of region, channel and product, accelerate the construction of overseas sales, marketing, logistics and warehousing capacity, and accelerate the expansion; ② Deepen cooperation with who, UNICEF and other international organizations and other NGOs, realize the transformation from providing Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) vaccine storage scheme to Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) laboratory, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) clinic and other multi scenario schemes, and maintain the sustained and rapid growth of overseas direct sales projects.
Investment advice
Considering that the company sets sail from the leader of low-temperature storage, in the future, with the accelerated replication of urban blood network and vaccine network, the strengthening of Internet of things scheme by horizontal expansion and the gradual improvement of overseas distribution network, we predict that the revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be CAGR 33.59%. Excluding the one-time non recurring profits and losses obtained from the disposal of associated enterprise mesa in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 is CAGR 37.42%, of which the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2024 is 1.87, 2.63 and 3.62 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding closing price PE on April 15, 2022 is 36, 26 and 19 times respectively. With reference to comparable companies and the leading position of the company in the field of low-temperature storage, the coverage is given “overweight” for the first time.
Risk tips
The expansion of Internet of things is less than expected, the replication of vaccine city network and vaccination sites is less than expected, the price of raw materials is higher, the shipping delivery capacity is less than expected, the delivery of overseas direct sales projects is less than expected, and the overseas market expansion is less than expected.
