\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 660 Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) )
Key points
1q22 performance disclosure: 1q22 operating revenue increased by 14.8% year-on-year to RMB 6.55 billion (accounting for about 23% of our annual revenue forecast), and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 1.9% year-on-year to RMB 870 million (accounting for about 21% of our annual profit forecast). 1q22 achieved steady and positive growth in performance, which verified Fuyao's strong lean operation management and control ability and the rising market share / product structure optimization trend.
The impact of exchange rate / cost fluctuations still exists, and 1q22 still achieved steady and positive growth: 1q22 gross profit margin increased from - 1.5pcts to 35.8% year-on-year, and we expect cost fluctuations to drag down the gross profit margin by about 1.9pcts; Among them, the increase of soda ash price / sea freight cost is expected to drag down the gross profit margin by about 1.1pcts/0.8pcts respectively. 1q22's total profit increased by + 3% year-on-year to RMB 1.07 billion, and the total profit after excluding the impact of exchange rate / cost fluctuations increased by + 24.4% year-on-year. We judge that 1q22 supply chain and other factors lead to pressure on global automobile production and sales; Compared with the same period last year, the output of Fuyao Automotive products and the added value of Fuyao Automotive products increased steadily, accounting for 17.9% of the year-on-year increase in the output of Fuyao Automotive products and 2.2% of the year-on-year increase in the added value of Fuyao Automotive products, accounting for a strong year-on-year increase in the output of Fuyao Automotive Products + 2.2% of the year-on-year increase in the added value of Fuyao Automotive products.
The Growth Logic of high-quality white horse leading stocks with both volume and price is gradually realized: we judge that 1) soda ash / sea freight and other costs remain high, but there may be a downward trend. At present, the market is mainly based on the continuous closure and control of the epidemic in Shanghai and other regions, resulting in the shortage of supply chain / the slowdown of production scheduling rhythm of automobile enterprises, and concerns about the climbing degree of production capacity of Chinese factories. 2) We are optimistic about Fuyao's lean operation management and control ability as a global leading automotive glass supplier. It is expected that the company may have stronger improvement ability in the recovery stage of the industrial chain, and the fundamentals are better than the overall performance of the industry. 3) We are optimistic about the head centralization of the global automotive glass industry (we expect that in 2023e / 2025e, Fuyao's global OEM market accounts for about 35% / 40%, and in 2023e / 2025e, China's am market accounts for about 30% / 40%). 4) We are optimistic about the rising penetration rate of ceiling / head up display driven by intelligent electrification, and the continuous increase in the proportion of high value-added functions such as edging products / sound insulation / heat insulation / HUD / dimming / atmosphere lamp / Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) and driven Fuyao's long-term performance will boost the prospect.
Maintain the "buy" rating of A-Shares and the "buy" rating of H shares: we maintain the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2022e / 2023e / 2024e at about 4.08 billion yuan / 5.02 billion yuan / 5.91 billion yuan respectively, and maintain the target price of a / h at about 50.42 yuan / 42.38 Hong Kong dollars respectively (corresponding to about 32x / 22x 2022e PE respectively); We are optimistic about the company's long-term growth logic and performance growth trend. The 2022e A / h dividend yield is about 4% / 5% respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of A-Shares and the "buy" rating of H shares.
Risk warning: the supply chain shortage is alleviated less than expected; The ramp up of capacity utilization is lower than expected; The application proportion of high value-added products increased less than expected; The rise of market share is less than expected; Cost control is less than expected; The gross profit margin is lower than expected; Sam continues to drag down risks; exchange-rate risks; Epidemic control and market risk
