\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 256 Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) )
In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5 billion, a significant increase of + 274% year-on-year; The cash flow from operating activities was 6 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 32%. It is proposed to distribute 2.6 billion cash dividends, with a dividend proportion of 52% and a dividend yield of 4.6%. In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.2 billion, and in 2022q1, it was flat on a quarter on quarter basis.
Natural gas: give play to the advantage of flexibility
In 2021, the turnover of Qidong LNG terminal of the company was 2.52 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 22%, including 450 million cubic meters of international trade gas (320000 tons). In 2022q1, the sales volume of the terminal is 690000 tons, including 450 million cubic meters of international trade gas.
In terms of profitability, the net profit of the two related subsidiaries " Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) integrated logistics + Guanghui international natural gas trade" in 2021 totaled 1.32 billion, with a total of 840 / 480 million in the first and second half of the year respectively. The second half of 2021 was affected by the high international gas price. After entering 2022, a new profit point "entrepot trade" appears. The company adopts a profit oriented sales model, and newly introduces the model of international entrepot trade and window terminal pick-up and unloading service.
Coal: strong performance flexibility in the second half of 2021
In 2021, the company achieved a raw coal output of 10.29 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 77%; The total coal sales volume of the company was 1995 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 91%. In 2022q1, in response to the national demand for coal supply guarantee, baishihu open pit mine obtained the new guaranteed supply capacity of the national development and Reform Commission, realizing the output of raw coal of 3.83 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 127%; The total sales volume of coal was 5.87 million tons, an increase of 30% year-on-year. Malang coal mine is stepping up the preliminary procedures. In 2021, the company's methanol output was 1.16 million tons, with an operation rate of 94%; In 2022q1, the output of methanol is 300000 tons, and the operation rate is 97%.
In terms of profitability, the subsidiary Guanghui new energy (mainly including coal business + methanol business) had a net profit of about 3.4 billion in 2021, with a net profit of 7 / 2.7 billion in the first and second half of the year respectively. In the second half of 2021, it benefited from the rise of coal price and obvious performance flexibility.
Others: coal to oil exceeded expectations. Kazakhstan oilfield project is still in deficit in 2021 and is expected to turn around in 2022. According to the subsidiaries disclosed by the company, the net profit of clean refining and chemical company in 2021 is 800 million, which is better than the previous expectation. We expect to benefit from the high oil price environment in 2022, which is expected to further improve.
Xinjiang Guanghui petroleum still lost 460 million yuan in 2021. Guanghui petroleum and Anhui Everbright signed the framework agreement on oil and gas exploration and development cooperation. We expect to turn around the deficit in 2022.
Profit forecast and rating: considering that the coal price is higher than expected and the profitability of LNG transit business is better, the performance forecast of the company for 22 / 23 years is raised to 9.4/10.4 billion (previously 5.7/6.5 billion, the coal price assumption is raised this time), and the performance forecast for 24 years is increased by 11 billion (the progress of Malang coal mine is not considered in the performance of 23 / 24 years). The current share price corresponds to PE 6.1 / 5.5 / 5.2 times respectively. Upgrade to "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of sharp decline in coal price; Risk of sharp drop in LNG international price; The risk that the approval of Malang coal mine of the company is slower than expected
