\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 516 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) )
Quick view of performance: in 2021, the company realized an income of 2.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 78.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 138.6%; Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 330 million, a year-on-year increase of + 138.3%.
Affected by the changes in the fair value of the participating subsidiaries, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years slightly exceeded the performance express. The net profit attributable to the parent company for 21 years is about 15.44 million yuan higher than the performance express, which is expected to be mainly due to the changes in fair value profit and loss of trading financial assets – foreign investment. Wuxi Songyu (photovoltaic cell CVD equipment) and ouputai (photovoltaic el and PL testing equipment) hold less than 20% of the company’s foreign investment subsidiaries. In October 2020, the company participated in 8% of Wuxi Songyu’s shares with 10.8 million yuan to strengthen its layout of battery CVD equipment, which is conducive to the expansion of TOPCON battery equipment, a fixed increase project of the company; In October 2021, with 14 million yuan, the company participated in the fixed increase of Optec (accounting for 2.5%), and further strengthened the layout of relevant links before and after its own components.
In 21 years, the newly signed orders were 4.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 60.5%, and the orders on hand were 4.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 77.4%. Among them, Q4 single quarter orders were 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 133%. The newly signed order of Q4 of the company slightly exceeded expectations. In addition to the high growth of the main business, it is mainly due to the initial achievement of Q4 multi platform layout + the breakthrough of smbb series welding machine. In 21q4, the company signed orders for 140 million yuan Yuze semiconductor n-type single crystal furnace, 130 million yuan honeycomb lithium battery module pack, Jingke batch TOPCON LED light injection annealing furnace and bonding machine small batch, and received orders for Huasheng 2gw hjt and Jingke 8GW TOPCON series welding machines, so as to strengthen the market share of series welding machines in new photovoltaic technology. The company’s order revenue conversion cycle is about 9-12 months, and high orders on hand are expected to further ensure the high growth of performance in 2022.
Expenses and impairment were well controlled, and the net interest rate hit a record high. The gross profit margin of the company for 21 years was 37.7%, year-on-year + 1.6pp, and the net profit margin was 18.0%, year-on-year + 4.4pp. Profitability improvement: 1) the revenue of large-scale new products with high gross profit margin is gradually recognized, and 2) the company’s expenses and impairment are well controlled. During the 21-year period, the total rate of the company was -0.3pp, and the total impairment of assets and credit was 4.3%, with a year-on-year increase of -3.8%. In terms of business, the photovoltaic revenue was 1.73 billion yuan, accounting for 84.3%, and the gross profit margin was 37.5%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.8pp; Lithium battery revenue was 96.4 million yuan, accounting for 4.7%, with a gross profit margin of 24.2%, a year-on-year increase of -2.9pp; Transformation and others amounted to 220 million yuan, accounting for about 11%, with a gross profit margin of 47.5%, a year-on-year increase of -2.3pp. Quarter by quarter, the company’s 21q4 gross profit margin was 36.6%, year-on-year -2.8pp, month on month -1.1pp, net profit margin was 23.3%, year-on-year + 5.8pp, month on month + 7.2pp. It is estimated that the decrease in gross profit margin is due to the increase in the proportion of Q4 lithium battery business. With the increase in the proportion of the company’s revenue of large-size series welding machine and the confirmation of revenue of bonding machine, the company’s gross profit margin is expected to continue to increase; The increase in net interest rate was mainly due to the decrease in the proportion of company expenses and impairment, and the income from changes in fair value throughout the year was mainly included in Q4.
In the short term, we are optimistic about the continuous high growth of 22q1 order performance, and in the long term, we are optimistic about the steady growth of series welding machine and the elastic release of bonding machine. Benefiting from the continuous improvement of the downstream demand of 22q1 and the high market share of the company’s products in all links, we expect the company’s 22q1 orders and performance to continue to increase; In the long run, the company’s series welding machine business benefits from downstream iteration and production expansion, with weak second-order conductivity. In terms of 22-year large-scale iteration, 22-24-year hjt, TOPCON and IBC (the company launched IBC series welding machine in 2015), the company is expected to continue to maintain its advantages and is optimistic about the steady growth of series welding machine business in the long run. In April, the company obtained the batch order of Tongfu Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002156) aluminum wire bonding machine. Compared with the high-end model of LISO method in the standard library, the total import volume of bonding machine (gold, silver, copper and aluminum wire) in 21 years was 1.586 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of + 136%. As an enterprise taking the lead in laying out aluminum wire bonding equipment in China, the company is expected to quickly realize the domestic replacement of aluminum wire bonding machine and expand to gold and copper wire bonding machine by virtue of its performance, post-sale, delivery cycle, price and other advantages, Create another high-speed and stable growth business after series welding machine. In addition, considering the layout and volume of new products such as the company’s single crystal furnace, TOPCON light injection, coating and lithium lamination machine, the multi platform layout is expected to help the company grow continuously.
Profit forecast: Based on the high increase of the company’s orders and the large volume of bonding machines, the profit forecast is raised. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 560 / 81 / 1.09 billion, corresponding to 34 / 23 / 17 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the iteration of module technology is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
