\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 615 Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) )
Matters:
The company released its 2021 annual report, with a revenue of 27.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.93%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 3.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.69%, and a net profit of 2.934 billion yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of 109.55%.
In 2021q4, the revenue was 8.728 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.06%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 940 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.96%. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 2.211 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
Ping An View:
Three factors promote the high growth of performance in 2021. In 2021, the company’s performance increased rapidly, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.101 billion, a year-on-year increase of 125.69%. The main driving forces of performance growth include three aspects: first, the business volume of offshore wind turbine has increased simultaneously; Second, the increase in the installed capacity of new energy operation led to the rapid growth of power generation income; Third, the investment income brought by the sale of wind farms increased. In 2021, the sale scale of wind farm was 380.1mw, with a year-on-year increase of 91.96%, driving the investment income to reach 918 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 900 million yuan. In 2021, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 21.50%, a year-on-year increase of 2.87 percentage points, and the expense rate during the period was about 10.99%, which was basically flat year-on-year. The company’s performance met market expectations.
The sales volume of offshore wind turbines increased significantly, and the orders on hand were higher than those of major competitors. In 2021, the company’s total fan sales volume was 6031mw, with a year-on-year increase of about 6.6%, of which the offshore fan sales volume was 2897mw, with a year-on-year increase of 220%, and the onshore fan sales volume was 3134mw, with a year-on-year decrease of 34%. Due to the higher unit price and higher gross profit margin of offshore wind turbines, the increase in the proportion of offshore wind turbine sales promoted the growth of wind turbine business volume. In 2021, the company’s wind turbine business revenue was 25.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.53% and a gross profit margin of 19.16%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.27 percentage points. In 2021, the company added 11.22gw of wind turbine orders, a record high. By the end of 2021, the orders for hand-held wind turbines were 19.07gw, an increase of 5.19gw year-on-year. The scale of hand-held orders was higher than that of listed main competitors. The overseas market made a breakthrough. In 2021, the company added 455mw wind turbine orders overseas, with a year-on-year increase of 19.74%. It completed the supply of Italy beleolico 30MW offshore wind power project, and achieved a breakthrough of zero sales of offshore wind turbines by Chinese enterprises in Europe.
Relying on semi direct drive technology and forward-looking layout, the competitive advantage of the company’s fan business is expected to gradually highlight.
In 2021, semi direct drive was recognized by the wind power industry more and more, and many wind turbine enterprises began to layout new semi direct drive products; As a semi direct drive leading enterprise, the company has advantages in technical strength and supply chain maturity. We believe that with the large-scale of fans and the rapid increase of single unit capacity of fan products delivered by Fan enterprises, the company’s competitive advantages at the cost and profitability of fans will be further revealed. At the same time, relying on the competitive advantage of semi direct drive, the company is in a leading position in large-scale wind turbine and floating. In 2021, it launched large onshore units with a single unit capacity of 7mw and large offshore units with a single unit capacity of 16mw, providing the first floating test prototype wind turbine in China.
The rolling development of new energy power stations has achieved remarkable results, and the income from power generation and transfer has increased rapidly. In 2021, the company realized a total operating income of 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.43%; The gross profit margin of power station operation business was 65.41%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.68 percentage points. By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of new energy power stations operated by the company was 1.19gw, a year-on-year increase of 10.18%; The installed capacity under construction was 1.79gw, a year-on-year decrease of 32.45%; In 2021, the total sales capacity of the power station was 380.1mw, with a year-on-year increase of 91.96%. In December 2021, the company announced that it would sell 100% equity of its wholly-owned subsidiary Yangjiang Mingyang offshore wind power development Co., Ltd. to China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , with a transaction consideration of 1.76 billion yuan, which would increase the after tax profit of 438 million yuan in 2022. It is expected that the company’s power generation income and power station transfer income will further increase in 2022.
Investment advice. In combination with the price reduction of wind turbines and the transfer of wind farms, the company’s profit forecast is adjusted. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.741 billion yuan (the original forecast value is 3.149 billion yuan), 4.159 billion yuan (the original forecast value is 4.020 billion yuan) and 4.871 billion yuan (New), and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 12.7, 11.4 and 9.8 times respectively. The company’s fan business has strong competitiveness, and the new energy operation business is expected to continue to grow and maintain the company’s “recommended” rating.
Risk warning. (1) The demand for offshore wind power is affected by many factors such as policies, and there is a risk that it is less than expected. (2) After rush loading in 2021, China’s offshore wind power will usher in a transition period of parity. At that time, the gross profit margin of the company’s offshore wind turbine products may be under pressure. (3) Risks of intensified competition of offshore wind turbines in China and declining market share of the company
