Key investment points
Power coal industry chain: affected by Indonesia's export ban this week (December 31-January 7), the port price of power coal stabilized and rebounded. The annual price center decreased to a certain extent compared with last year, but remained relatively high. Inventory is higher than that of previous years. The safety production risk is rising, the coal mine safety supervision will continue to upgrade in the future, and the supply end may be disturbed.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: Metallurgical coal prices continued to rebound this week. The port's main coking coal continued to rebound, overseas coal prices rose, and the import price difference expanded. Coal injection stopped the decline and rose. The demand side improved, the coke price rebounded, and the coke oven operating rate continued to rise. Steel prices rose slightly this week, and the blast furnace operating rate continued to decline. Pay attention to the improvement of counter cyclical regulation policies and real estate regulation and correction measures on the demand side.
Equity view: the sector rose slightly this week, with listed companies related to metallurgical coal chain and some transition stocks leading the rise. Indonesia's export ban has a certain impact on China's coal market in the short term, and the price is expected to stabilize or rebound, which is good for the improvement of market expectations. At present, the incident is still a game in Indonesia and China, and it still needs to be tracked in the future. In addition, under the expected stable scenario, the transformation may bring listed companies more imagination space. Focus on Yankuang energy (high elasticity + new energy + modern coal chemical industry), Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) (high elasticity + photovoltaic), China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) (whole industry chain + modern coal chemical industry), power investment energy (wind power and photovoltaic), Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) (energy storage), Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) (photovoltaic).
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, although the situation has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the industry interest margin is lower than the level before the Yongmei incident, but the low-grade interest margin quantile is differentiated from the medium and high-grade. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium and high-grade interest rate spread is low and the available space is limited, it is better to choose the opportunity or take the best policy. For the exposure, the rapid de capitalization of debt and the improvement of debt structure can be considered. In addition, it is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk tips: strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Indonesia's coal exports returned to normal; Australian coal imports increased significantly; The transformation of individual stocks is less than expected; Other disturbance factors.
