\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 028 Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) )
In 2021, the revenue was + 18% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 28% year-on-year, basically in line with market expectations Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) released the annual report of 2021, and the company achieved a revenue of 8.695 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 17.94%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.32%. The performance is in line with market expectations. Its revenue in 2021q4 was 2.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.64% and a month on month increase of + 12.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 309 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 206.71%.
Under the background of bulk price increase, the gross profit margin remained stable and the net profit margin increased, reflecting the strong operation of the company α。 In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 30.48%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.21pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 13.77%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.11pct; The expense rate during the period was 14.32%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.34pct; We believe that it benefits from: 1) the impact of business structure (the cost control of coil products with high proportion of raw materials is better, the gross profit margin of EPC is increased, and the SVG business with relatively low gross profit is slightly lower than the company’s expectation); 2) The platform management of R & D, supply chain, sales and other links of the company runs smoothly, and the degree of reuse of internal resources is high.
Orders were overfulfilled, the structure of EPC outside Shanghai and the elasticity of power generation side were large, the overall steady growth within the network and the structural growth of new categories were high. In terms of total volume, the company’s revenue in 2021 was 8.695 billion yuan and new orders were 10.369 billion yuan (excluding tax), all exceeding the target at the beginning of 2021. From the perspective of structure: 1) the revenue of switches will reach 4.02 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 19% at the same time; Among them, the GIS structure increases rapidly, and will move towards high voltage level and overseas in the future; 2) Coils achieved a revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, an increase of 22% at the same time; Among them, AIS increased steadily and transformers increased rapidly. It is expected to grow faster with the completion and operation of Changzhou plant; 3) The revenue of reactive power compensation will reach 1.14 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 5% at the same time; We expect the capacitor to increase by 20% + at the same time, and SVG will decrease slightly because the wind power bidding is less than expected. However, in the medium and long term, with the high increase of new energy installed capacity & SVG ratio increase + overweight industrial enterprise market, we expect its revenue CAGR in 202224 to reach 25% +; 4) The revenue of intelligent equipment was 890 million yuan, an increase of 12% at the same time; Continue to promote the access of 220kV secondary products to the State Grid bidding.
Overseas expansion has been steadily promoted and Matthew effect has gradually formed; The liberalization of epidemic control is expected to promote the release of flexibility in overseas business. In 2021, the overseas revenue was 1.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14%, and the gross profit margin was 27.12%, a year-on-year increase of + 4.48 PCT; Among them, EPC realized revenue of 675 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 24%. We expect that the sea going of power equipment will become one of the core highlights of the company’s future performance: 1) the liberalization of overseas control is expected to accelerate the EPC progress. We estimate that the overseas orders on hand at the end of 2021 will be 4.56 billion yuan, and the orders will continue to break through in 2022, locking in high growth. 2) The company gives full play to the advantages of complete primary equipment product matrix, high independent matching rate and better project management. It is expected to steadily increase the market share of overseas sales. We expect the overseas revenue CAGR = 30% + from 2022 to 2024.
Profit forecast and investment rating: due to the impact of the Shanghai epidemic on the company’s operation, we lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 1.409 billion yuan (- 98 million yuan) and 1.776 billion yuan (- 24 million yuan) respectively. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 2.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of + 18% / + 26% / + 24% respectively, corresponding to 16 times, 13 times and 11 times of the current price PE respectively. In 2022, the company will be given 22 times PE, the target price is 40.48 yuan / share, and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
Risk tips: power grid investment is less than expected, the impact of the epidemic exceeds market expectations, and competition intensifies.
