Market performance:
The Shanghai Composite Index fell – 1.65% this week to close at 3579.54; Gem refers to – 6.80% this week, closing at 3096.88 points; CSI 300 this week – 2.39%, closing at 4822.37 points. The real estate sector was + 4.46%, ranking first among 31 industries.
New house transaction: the transaction area was – 38.0% year-on-year and – 41.5% month on month
This week (December 31-January 6), the total transaction area of first-hand houses in 32 cities we focused on tracking was about 2.47 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 38.0% and a month-on-month increase of – 41.5%. Among them, the total transaction area of first-hand houses in the first tier (4 cities) was 830000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.5% and a month on month increase of – 21.3%; The total transaction area of first-hand houses in the second tier (14 cities) was 1.12 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 40.5% and a month on month increase of – 51.6%; The total turnover of first-hand houses in the third tier (14 cities) was 520000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 60.4% and a month on month increase of – 39.2%.
Second hand housing transaction: the transaction area was – 51.2% year-on-year and – 23.0% month on month
This week (12.31-1.6) this week (12.31-1.6), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities we focus on tracking is about 770000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 51.2% and a month on month increase of – 23.0%. Among them, the total transaction area of second-hand houses in the first tier (2 cities) was 220000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 32.9% and a month on month increase of – 47.7%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the second tier (8 cities) was 360000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 56.7% and a month on month increase of – 7.1%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the third tier (7 cities) was 190000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 54.5% and a month on month increase of – 0.4%.
Inventory of new houses: the inventory area was – 3.03% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was November 1
As of January 6, 2022, the total inventory area of new houses in 16 cities we focused on tracking this week was about 92.9 million m3, a month on month ratio of – 3.03%, and the overall decontamination cycle (by area) was about November 1. Among them, the inventory of new houses in the first tier (4 cities) totaled 29.14 million m3, a month on month increase of – 5.35%, and the decontamination cycle was 8.3 months; The inventory of new houses in the second tier (6 cities) was 31.98 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 4.37%, and the decontamination cycle was 9.2 months; The inventory of new houses in the third tier (6 cities) was 31.77 million m3, a month on month increase of + 0.67%, and the decontamination cycle was 23.1 months.
Land market: the land transaction area of Baicheng is 15.31 million m3, the total land transaction price is 25.7 billion yuan, and the land premium rate is 4.40%
Last week (12.27-1.2), the number of land supply in Baicheng was 177, and the corresponding land supply construction area was about 12.32 million m3; The number of land transactions in Baicheng is 182, and the corresponding land construction area is about 15.31 million m3. The total land transaction price is about 25.7 billion yuan, and the land premium rate of Baicheng is 4.40%. Among them, the transaction and construction area of land in first tier, second tier and third tier cities were 3.71 million m3, 7.23 million m3 and 4.37 million m3 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 23%, – 75% and – 92% respectively, and the corresponding land premium rate was + 5.67%, + 3.29% and + 5.18% respectively.
Investment suggestions:
This week, the planning and relevant policies of indemnificatory rental housing were raised again. 1) In 2022, Beijing will prepare for the construction of 150000 affordable rental housing units and complete 80000 various affordable housing units. 2) Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) the Management Committee of Lingang New Area has formulated and issued the implementation opinions on the construction management of dormitory indemnificatory rental housing in Lingang New Area of China (Shanghai) pilot free trade zone (for Trial Implementation). 3) Fuzhou plans to build 150000 sets of affordable rental housing during the 14th Five Year Plan period. 4) Shandong Provincial Department of housing and urban rural development and other departments issued the notice on submitting plans for affordable rental housing, public rental housing security and urban shantytowns transformation in 2022. The new construction plan of affordable rental housing in 2022 reached 89000 units. The further implementation of policies and work related to affordable rental housing is an important part of continuing to fully implement the long-term mechanism of the real estate market. This is consistent with the central economic work conference again mentioned in December 2021 that “we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, strengthen expectation guidance, explore new development models, adhere to the simultaneous development of rent and purchase, accelerate the development of long-term rental housing market and promote the construction of indemnificatory housing”.
Following the “three red lines”, the introduction of policies such as “concentration management of real estate loans”, “two concentration of land supply” and “pilot reform of real estate tax” will restrict supply and demand in both directions. The wind direction has not changed, and “stability first” is still the main tone, and the space for large amplification is narrow. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. In the future, the low base effect subsided, the fundamentals were under pressure in 2022q1, and the supply and demand of the industry were limited, resulting in increased disharmony between land acquisition, sales and leverage reduction. Suggestions: (1) steady development type: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; (2) Growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; (3) High quality objects of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc.
Risk tips:
The real estate regulation policy is becoming stricter, the sales repair is less than expected, and the capital is greatly tightened.
