Industry update
Covid-19 epidemic continued to recur worldwide. From the end of December to the beginning of January, the number of new cases per week in the world exceeded the number of new cases during the peak period of the past three waves of epidemic. In the last week, more than 500000 new cases were added every day in the United States, and the number of new cases per day in European countries such as France, Britain, Spain and Switzerland exceeded 0.2% of the population. The number of covid-19 inpatients in various countries has also increased correspondingly, but the increase is less than that of new cases. The number of death cases and mortality of covid-19 patients in various countries remain at a low level and have not increased significantly. The global vaccination rate has steadily increased to 58%, and the booster vaccination rate has increased significantly recently. The booster vaccination rate in Britain has reached 50%, and that in Europe and America has reached 20-30%.
The proportion of overseas Omicron mutants continues to rise. At present, the proportion of Omicron in the world has risen to 25%. At present, Africa’s Omicron accounts for more than 80%, of which South Africa’s Omicron accounts for more than 90%. The proportion of Omicron in Britain also exceeds 90%, and that in the United States and France exceeds 80%. More than 75% in Hong Kong. In addition, new mutants continue to appear, b.1.640.2 with more mutation sites than Omicron and “deltacron” with mutation combining Delta and Omicron are attracting attention.
Omicron mutant appeared in China. On January 8, there were two local cases of Omicron mutant infection in Tianjin, China, and then 18 positive persons were detected in the close contact. At present, Tianjin has begun to carry out nucleic acid detection for all staff.
Epidemic prevention and control may face new challenges. Based on the above data, we believe that the emergence of mutant strains has brought great challenges to the prevention of covid-19 infection, which may be due to the enhancement of transmission and the weakening of vaccine protection, resulting in a significant increase in new cases. On the other hand, the treatment for covid-19 infection remains effective, so the death toll has not increased significantly.
In terms of the progress of oral drug research and development in China, vv116 cooperated by Wangshan wangshui and Junshi was approved by EUA in Uzbekistan on December 30, and has also entered the stage of clinical research and development in China. Azvudine, a real organism, has now entered phase III clinical practice, and 3CL protease inhibitors of Xiansheng pharmaceutical and Fujian Cosunter Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300436) pharmaceutical in China are in preclinical research and development.
Based on the therapeutic mechanism, accessibility and economy of oral drugs, we continue to be optimistic about the application prospect of oral small molecule covid-19 drugs. At the same time, the short-term epidemic situation has been repeated, and the demand for epidemic situation detection has increased, especially the demand for overseas covid-19 detection.
Investment advice
It is suggested to continue to focus on five main epidemic lines (focusing on the first two): ① small molecule cdmo industrial chain and its upstream of fine chemicals; ② Epidemic detection, mainly covid-19 test kit suppliers (export); ③ Other upstream supply chains related to covid-19, including suppliers of antigens, antibodies, enzymes, plasmids, etc; ④ Epidemic related innovative drug R & D enterprises; ⑤ Other epidemic related, such as vaccine R & D enterprises and other anti epidemic equipment / consumables suppliers.
It is suggested to focus on: Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Kingsley biotechnology, etc.
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic development and change risk, product R & D data and progress are less than expected risk, product capacity and sales are less than expected risk, government orders are less than expected risk, policy risk, etc
