Event: 2022ces exhibition was held in Las Vegas from January 5 to 8. We found that Yu Fa, an automobile enterprise and manufacturer in the field of automatic driving, received attention in CES exhibition, which is known as the wind vane in the field of consumer electronics. According to the news on the official website of CES, in 2022, 20% of the space for ces offline exhibition will be used to display automobile technology. Among the 2300 + exhibitors around the world, the number of enterprises related to vehicle technology exceeds 200, an increase of 12% compared with 2020, a record high. Decades ago, when the automobile industry first set foot in CES, the exhibits were mainly speakers, audio, etc. Today, autonomous driving, networked vehicles, lidar, VR / AR, adaptive beam, etc. are all shining on the stage of displaying new technologies in the vehicle field.
Automobile intelligent hard science and technology gather, and lidar has become the king of attraction: 1) Suteng juchuang: M1, as the second generation lidar for mass production and delivery of vehicle specification front loading, has obtained fixed-point orders from Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC AIAN, Weima and other vehicle enterprises; The new 128 line mechanical lidar RS rubyplus and the 32 line lidar rs-helios-5515 tailored for Alibaba’s “Little Donkey” made their world debut. 2) Hesai Technology: release a new short-range ultra wide-angle lidar qt128, specially built for L4 robotaxi / robotrack autopilot application, which will be mass produced and delivered in 1q23; On January 5, 2022, it reached a cooperation with optical giant lumentum to jointly develop the next generation ADAS semi-solid lidar solution. 3) Tudaton: the image level ultra long-range semi-solid laser radar Falcon has become the mass production standard configuration of Weilai’s first autonomous flagship car et7, and it is planned to be officially mass produced and delivered in 1q22. 4) Valeo: the third generation Scala lidar is unveiled for the first time. The product technology is transferred from micro rotating mirror scheme to MEMS camp. The product will be launched in 2024; In addition, new technologies such as Valeo NFL (short range lidar), voyagexr virtual perception panoramic technology and safeinsight were displayed at ces2022 meeting to protect the elimination of blind spots and safe driving. 5) Luminar: continue to deepen the strategic cooperation with Volvo. Iris will become the standard configuration of the next generation of all electric SUV, which is carried on the new Volvo model concentrecharge; The L4 + level unsupervised highway automatic driving function software ridepilot developed by luminar in cooperation with Volvo and zenseact was launched for the first time. In addition, the new model of Volvo’s spa2 modular structure platform equipped with luminar lidar sensing technology will be mass produced and sold in 2022.
Lidar is the core of L3 + ADAS sensor, or will usher in an upward turning point of industry growth in 2022-23: at ces2022 exhibition, many lidar manufacturers at home and abroad appeared one after another, highlighting the industry and market’s optimism about the application prospect of lidar in vehicle field. We believe that as the core sensor of L3 + level ADAS, lidar will comply with the trend of safety redundancy and multi-sensor fusion scheme in the industry and become the hardware choice for most traditional car companies and new forces of car manufacturing to layout advanced assisted driving. In addition to Xiaopeng P5 (September 2021) and GAC AIAN lxplus (January 2022), a large number of models equipped with lidar will be intensively listed in 2022, including Weilai et7, Jihu alpha s Huawei hi version, Xiaopeng G9, SAIC im Zhiji model, Volvo XC90, gillillotes, Great Wall Mocha, etc, Lidar is expected to usher in an upward turning point of industry growth from 2022 to 2023 with the vigorous development of mass production of intelligent vehicle front loading. According to our calculation, the global passenger car lidar market is expected to reach about US $6 billion in 2025.
Investment suggestions: suggestions and concerns: 1) solid state progress of mechanical manufacturers: velodyne and Hesai technology; 2) Fixed point and delivery of semi-solid manufacturers: Valeo, luminar, innoviz, robosense, Sagitar juchuang, Huawei, Dajiang livox, etc. Lidar is expected to stimulate industrial vitality and bring investment opportunities to upstream suppliers. It is suggested to focus on: Lidar optical parts companies: Ningbo Yong Xin Optics Co.Ltd(603297) , Zhejiang Lante Optics Co.Ltd(688127) , Castech Inc(002222) ; Torch technology, laser transmitter module packaging company; And lidar transmitter chip – changguanghuaxin (to be IPO). As a global leading optical manufacturer, through industrial chain layout + technology R & D accumulation, Shunyu optical technology has the ability to transition from optical parts company to Tier-1 OEM, enabling lidar manufacturers. The company has 10 + lidar related orders on hand, involving scanning, MEMS and flash technologies, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk analysis: 1) the penetration of automatic driving and ADAS is less than expected; 2) The cost of lidar fell less than expected; 3) Risk of substitution of other autopilot sensor technologies.
