I. core: promote the national high-quality development of express industry
The current express market management measures was promulgated and implemented in July 2008 and has been used since 2012 after a revision. China’s express industry has experienced rapid growth. The parcel business volume increased by 39.7% from 1.513 billion pieces in 2008 to 83.36 billion pieces in 2020. It is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 30% in 2021. It reflects the trend of online consumption channels, diversification of e-commerce forms and complexity of logistics demand, which requires the upgrading of the industry ecology from “big but not strong” to “both big and strong”.
The revision of the measures for the administration of the express market is led by the State Post Office, the highest regulatory body in the field of postal express. The working idea is to promote the high-quality development of the express industry and adhere to the problem orientation, so as to adapt to the reality of the supervision and management of the express market, more effectively standardize the business behavior of market subjects, and continuously improve the quality and safety level of express service, Promote the sustained and healthy development of express industry.
Two dimensions: put forward higher requirements for the dimension of competitive order and service quality
1) dimension of competitive order: compared with the measures for the administration of express market in 2012, the draft for comments specially sets up a chapter on market order to clearly regulate the business and geographical scope, business license qualification, business prohibition scope, etc. of express enterprises.
2) service quality dimension: compared with the measures for the management of express market in 2012, the draft for comments further embodies the service quality requirements of express business enterprises (the pre event system and in-process transportation and dispatch are fully covered). In addition, the postal administration department is given for the first time that the service behavior of enterprises directly related to the express service brand is abnormal The right to publicly publish abnormal information of express service without the ability and conditions to provide normal service within a specific region.
Three key points: prohibit price competition below the cost line, rectify the phenomenon of collusion in price manipulation and fictitious express information, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of express employees
1) prohibit price competition below the cost line: Article 27 of the exposure draft stipulates that enterprises operating express business and their employees shall not provide express services at a price below the cost without justifiable reasons. This statement is the same as the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry. It is a national promotion of Zhejiang experience and is expected to promote the competition order across the country, especially in the key grain producing areas of express, to further return to health and rationality.
2) rectify the phenomenon of collusion in price manipulation and fictitious express information: Article 27 of the exposure draft stipulates that enterprises operating express business and their employees shall not collude with others to manipulate market prices, damaging the legitimate rights and interests of other enterprises or users operating express business; It is not allowed to fabricate express service information or provide express service in cooperation with other people’s illegal activities. The above two prohibitions respectively reflect the rectification of bad phenomena in the industry. The rectification of collusive price manipulation will help to fill in the price depression and resolve the vicious competition from the root; Rectifying fictitious express information helps to reduce the amount of empty package orders and improve the profit quality at the headquarters level.
3) protect the legitimate rights and interests of express employees: the draft for comments specifically establishes a chapter on the protection of employees’ rights and interests, which requires enterprises operating express business to protect the legitimate rights and interests of express employees in terms of labor remuneration, labor conditions, labor protection, vocational training, career development and social insurance according to law, so as to promote the ecological optimization of the whole express network.
Investment: the dividend of policy guidance pattern is expected to appear in advance, and the value restoration is about to enter the essential period
Express value repair is divided into three levels of fundamentals, corresponding to two stages of market performance. Fundamental restoration can be divided into three levels: 1) gradual tightening of policy control, 2) price return to a reasonable range, and 3) bottom reversal of profit restoration. In the second and third quarters of this year, with the introduction of policies, prices have gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy control and price return, they are about to enter the most essential level of value restoration, that is, the level of profit restoration. Accordingly, the trend of leading stock prices has reflected the first stage of repair (reflecting the two levels of policy control and price return), and the follow-up will enter the second stage of repair (reflecting the third level, namely profit repair). Under the guidance of the national policy of the draft measures for comments, the pattern dividend is expected to appear in advance and catalyze the continuous upward boom.
The pattern is gradually clear and the investment is differentiated. The franchise system is optimistic about the A-share e-commerce express leader Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) with both value repair flexibility and certainty. At the same time, it pays attention to Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) with the edge of digital management and Zhongtong express, the leader in scale and profitability; The direct operating system is optimistic about the high construction of service and brand barriers and the deduction of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) whose performance is expected to improve marginally.
Risk warning: the effectiveness of the policy is not as expected; Labor costs rose sharply; The growth of physical online shopping fell.
