Sub industry core weekly view
Vehicle: January February is the off-season, and the terminal data is greatly disturbed by holidays. The key observation months of terminal sales in 22 years are March and April; Electric vehicles have been driven by spontaneous demand at the C-end. Recently, the subsidy decline and dual carbon policy worried by the market have little impact on the terminal; At present, the main market of global electrification is still China, the United States and Europe, but the market penetration of Japan and South Korea is also accelerating. Pay attention to whether the sales volume in non China, the United States and Europe exceeds the expectation; We believe that in the future, both the concentration and the profit distribution of the industrial chain will be better than the existing pattern. Investment opportunities for complete vehicles: look at the model cycle in the medium term, and pay attention to companies with strong intelligent R & D and data capabilities in the long term.
Parts: as the chip supply pressure gradually eased, the prosperity of the parts sector began to pick up. Focus on the direction with large marginal changes in permeability and localization rate. 1) Penetration promotion direction: intelligent chassis (air suspension, brake by wire, CDC shock absorption, etc.), thermal management heat pump, integrated casting, on-board HEPA, etc; 2) Direction of increasing localization rate: controller, micro motor, audio, tire, IGBT, etc.
Battery: according to the recent grassroots research, compared with December 21, the industry output in January 22 continued to increase by about 5% month on month, and the off-season was not light; At present, the impact of the change of double carbon policy worried by the market on the supply logic in 22 years has not appeared. We judge that the capacity constraint of high energy consumption is still strong; The plate recently pulled back to near pe30x in 22 years and began to enter the strong allocation value range. Focus on the links with strong global competitiveness, such as batteries, diaphragms, positive electrodes, structural parts, carbon black, aluminum-plastic film and other auxiliary materials with improved localization rate, negative electrodes and PVDF with tight balance between supply and demand.
Important industry events this week
In 2022, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be released with a 30% decline, and the upper limit of the subsidy scale of 2 million units will be released; CES exhibition was held and Sony announced its entry into the field of vehicle manufacturing; Byd Company Limited(002594) and other modified new vehicles enter the directory of the Ministry of industry and information technology; Invest Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 24 billion in the construction of phase 7-10 project of power battery manufacturing base in Yibin, Sichuan; Zhongchuangxin aviation (formerly AVIC lithium battery) invested 1.8 billion to build a lithium battery cathode material project with an annual output of 100000 tons.
Recommended portfolio of sub industries
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Risk tips:
The effect of policy adjustment and implementation is lower than expected. At present, the new energy industry generally ushers in the period of policy adjustment, and the effect of manufacturers' response measures may be lower than the expected risk.
The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected. The supply side of the new energy industry chain is becoming richer and richer, and the competition is extremely fierce.
