Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: Comments on banking operation data in November 2021
Event: on January 6, the CBRC held the first regular press conference of banking and insurance industry in 2022 to announce the basic situation of banking operation in November 2021.
The growth rate of table expansion slows down and asset quality is under pressure:
In terms of asset scale, at the end of November, the total domestic assets of the banking industry were 335.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, and the total domestic liabilities were 306.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%. Among them, the total domestic assets of commercial banks were 279.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.29%, and the total domestic liabilities were 256.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.04%. Although there are fluctuations in the growth rate of total assets of commercial banks, on the whole, the growth rate has fallen sharply since April 21. Even though the reform of deposit interest rate pricing mechanism was carried out in June 21 and the deposit reserve ratio was reduced in July, the downward trend of asset growth has not been changed. Overall, due to the lack of credit demand, the asset growth of commercial banks will decline sharply in 2021.
In terms of loan investment, from January to November 2021, new loans of 19.2 trillion yuan were mainly invested in manufacturing, infrastructure construction and other fields:
In terms of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans, as of the end of November 21, the balance of inclusive small and micro enterprise loans was 18.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%. Although the growth rate decreased marginally, it was still maintained at a high level. From the recent introduction of policies and the speeches of various departments, the support of policies for small and micro enterprises is continuous.
In terms of real estate loans, we resolutely implemented the policy of housing without speculation. At the end of November, real estate loans increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased month on month. Specifically, the reasonable housing needs of property buyers have been further met. More than 90% of personal housing loans are used to support the first house, and the financial support for the construction of affordable housing in the long-term rental housing market has been strengthened. The growth rate of loans invested in the housing rental market is close to 5 times the average growth rate of various loans. Recently, there has been a marginal loosening of the real estate policy. From the credit data in November, the long-term loans of residents have rebounded, the mortgage loans have been loosened, the mortgage interest rates have been lowered in many places, and the development loan and M & a loan policies have also been loosened, which has a strong expectation of stabilizing the real estate policy. It is expected that the growth rate of real estate loans is expected to increase marginally in 2022.
In terms of non-performing loan ratio, at the end of November, the non-performing loan ratio of banking financial institutions was 1.89%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points over the beginning of the year, and the provision coverage rate was 192.9%, an increase of 10 percentage points over the beginning of the year. However, compared with the end of September, the asset quality deteriorated marginally, which has been expected by the market. Recently, the policy margin has been loose and stability maintenance signals have been released for many times. The credit easing efforts have gradually increased. The moment when the pressure on the quality of real assets is the greatest has passed.
Investment strategy: for banks, from the perspective of credit supply, in 21 years, when the economic downward pressure was obvious and the regulation intensity was large, the demand for corporate loans weakened and the bank’s risk preference decreased, so that the medium and long-term loan supply was less than expected. In 22 years, with the development of macro-control policies and the recovery of real estate and infrastructure investment, the economic downward pressure slowed down, The pressure of bank expansion will slow down. From the perspective of asset quality, the policy margin is loose, and stability maintenance signals have been released for many times. The efforts to broaden credit have gradually increased, and the moment of maximum pressure on asset quality has passed.
Now is a good time for bank sector allocation. We suggest paying attention to two main lines:
Joint stock banks with dominant intermediary business, such as China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) ;
Regional banks with prominent regional advantages, controllable bad debts and broad growth space, such as Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) .
Market review:
Performance of sector & individual stocks: the banking sector rose 2.87% this week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.25 percentage points. Banks ranked 4 / 30 up and down. Among them, state-owned banks rose 3.01%, joint-stock banks rose 2.72%, urban commercial banks rose 3.17%, and rural commercial banks rose 2.36%. In terms of specific stocks, Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) (+ 8.24%), Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (+ 7.14%), Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) (+ 6.75%) led the increase, and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (+ 0.7%), China Zheshang Bank Co.Ltd(601916) (+ 0.86%) and Bank Of Zhengzhou Co.Ltd(002936) (+ 0.95%) led the increase.
Northbound capital flow: northbound capital has accumulated a net inflow of 6.203 billion yuan this week, a net purchase of 6.203 billion yuan this month, and a net purchase of 6.203 billion yuan since the beginning of the year. Among them, the cumulative net inflow of the banking sector this week was 39.62 yuan, ranking 1 / 30. In terms of specific stocks, Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) received the most net purchases. In terms of the shareholding ratio of land stock link, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (9.14%), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (7.32%), Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) (5.76%) land stock link holds the highest proportion of circulating a shares.
Risk tip: policy risk; The risk of macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; The global covid-19 epidemic continues to deteriorate.
