Core view
Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on December 31, 2021, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 419.9 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 2.1 million barrels; Gasoline inventory was 232.8 million barrels, an increase of 10.1 million barrels per week; Distillate oil inventory was 126.8 million barrels, an increase of 4.4 million barrels per week; Propane inventory was 6573 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 734000 barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on December 31, 2021, the U.S. crude oil production was 11.8 million barrels / day, the weekly number remained unchanged, an increase of 800000 barrels / day compared with a year ago. On January 7, 2022, the number of drilling rigs in the United States is 588, with an increase of 2 in the week and 228 in the year; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 141, with an increase of 51 in the week and 24 in the year. Among them, there are 481 oil production rigs in the United States, an increase of 1 in the week and 206 in the year.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were n-butanol (up 17.8%), liquid chlorine (up 16.0%) and phenol (up 11.5%); The top three declines were acrylonitrile (down 8.9%), yellow phosphorus (down 7.5%) and dichloromethane (down 6.2%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were chloroform (up 27.6%), tetrachloroethylene (up 25.9%) and phenol (up 24.1%); The top three declines were maleic anhydride (down 35.9%), thermal coal (Zaozhuang) (down 30.4%) and Po (down 25.2%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are n-butanol price difference (up 47.4%), coal head ethylene glycol price difference (up 45.1%) and n-butanol (oil head) full price difference (up 37.3%); The top three declines were butadiene (down 41.2%), butyl acrylate (down 31.6%) and polypropylene (down 30.4%).
Monthly, the top three products with price difference increase were PTA (up 574.1%), calcium carbide PVC (up 237.6%) and polyvinyl alcohol (up 91.8%); The top three declines were butadiene price difference (down 368.1%), butyl acrylate price difference (down 233.5%) and coal head ethylene glycol price difference (down 123.4%).
Investment proposal and investment object
In the first three quarters of last year, the performance of pesticide enterprises was under pressure due to the lag of cost side transmission. In the peak season of Q4 pesticide demand, the price of end products was increased, and the cost pressure was transmitted smoothly. The pesticide industry ushered in a simultaneous rise in volume and profit β quotation. In the short and medium term, from Q4 to Q1 this year, China’s environmental protection policies have suppressed the pesticide supply side, and the industry is expected to maintain a high outlook. In the long run, the supply and demand of the pesticide industry is loose, and only endogenous α Enterprises can independently grasp the structural growth opportunities of the pesticide industry in order to achieve long-term and stable growth. It is recommended to pay attention to Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) (600486, overweight), Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) (603639, buy), Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) (603599, Unrated), Dalian Bio-Chem Company Limited(603360) (603360, Unrated), Jiangsu Flag Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(300575) (300575, Unrated), Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) (002734, Unrated), Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) (301035, Unrated).
Risk tips
Price fluctuation of raw materials; The change of epidemic situation is less than the expected risk.
