This week’s Chemical Market Overview
This week, the CSI 300 index fell 2.39% and the SW chemical index fell 3.35%. The three sub industries with the largest growth were polyurethane (Shenwan) (1.58%), modified plastics (Shenwan) (1.36%) and textile chemicals (Shenwan) (1.32%); The three sub industries with the largest decline were other rubber products (Shenwan) (- 9.97%), fluorine chemical industry (Shenwan) (- 8.46%), phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry (Shenwan) (- 6.66%). In terms of targets, most of the targets with better performance have upward marginal changes, such as upward product prices and bright performance; Last year’s strong targets were under pressure.
Portfolio recommendation
\u3000\u3000 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) 、 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) 、 Sichuan Em Technology Co.Ltd(601208) 、 Shenzhen Wote Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002886) 、 Jiangsu Flag Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(300575)
Big events of the week
The “green transformation of thousands of enterprises” project in Hebei Province was launched. The “14th five year plan” for industrial green development in Hebei Province was officially issued recently. It is clear that Hebei Province will select and determine 1000 high energy consuming and high emission enterprises, implement the “green transformation of thousands of enterprises” project, establish a “green transformation of thousands of enterprises” project library, and carry out key green transformation. After the central economic conference revised the implementation of the dual carbon policy to a certain extent in the early stage, the continued implementation of the policy attracted attention, and whether the correction will be excessive is also the focus. From the changes in recent weeks, the dual carbon policy is still continuing. On the basis of the original energy consumption control and new production capacity, it further carried out structural upgrading and technical optimization for stock enterprises, New + stock is driven steadily in both directions, and the structural change of double carbon to the industry is still an important direction for long-term development in the future.
The state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council shall complete the rectification of the enterprise stock illegal financing guarantee business within a time limit of three years. The state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council issued a statement on strengthening the financing guarantee management of central enterprises, pointing out that the control objects include not only the headquarters of the central enterprise group, but also the subsidiaries at all levels of the central enterprise. We will seriously pursue the responsibility for the new illegal financing guarantee activities of enterprises, require enterprises to rectify the stock illegal financing guarantee business within a time limit, strive to rectify 50% within two years, and in principle, complete the rectification within three years. The state’s reform of state-owned enterprises has been particularly obvious in recent years. In contrast, the overall capital strength, resource strength and industrial layout of state-owned enterprises have a relatively good foundation, but they have not been effectively brought into play. In the future, with the reform of state-owned enterprises, we will break the old rules and bad habits, carry out management reform and mobilize vitality, It is expected to improve the overall development speed and space with the help of the resources of state-owned enterprises.
Investment advice
This week, the market experienced a significant adjustment, of which Shenwan chemical fell 2.52%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.51%. In terms of targets, most of the targets with better performance have upward marginal changes, such as upward product prices and bright performance; Last year’s strong targets were under pressure. In addition, the market is concerned about the double carbon policy recently. We believe that the direction has not changed, but on the premise of maintaining growth, the rhythm and intensity of the implementation of the policy may change. In terms of investment direction, we believe that this year may be a year of downward expected rate of return + logical sinking, and the market may turn more stones at non mainstream tracks, especially specialized in new material targets.
Risk tips
The epidemic affects the demand outside China, the crude oil price fluctuates violently, and the change of trade policy affects the industrial layout.
