Zhou tiktok’s core view: in January 6th, the voice of the electric supplier released the annual report of “2021 tiktok electricity supplier development of domestic products”. The share of domestic products of the platform reached 89%, and the sales volume increased by 667% year-on-year; Among the brands with a turnover of more than 100 million, domestic brands accounted for 80%, a year-on-year increase of 840%. In addition, by strengthening the support for self broadcasting, the platform has promoted the improvement of the brand self broadcasting system. The proportion of self broadcasting rooms built by domestic brands has increased by 33% year-on-year, the self broadcasting sales volume has increased by 784% year-on-year, and the store self broadcasting mode has become an important channel for the rapid growth of domestic products.
Last week’s market review: last week (2022.01.04-2022.01.07), the commercial retail (CITIC) index fell 0.27%, less than the 2.12pct of the CSI 300 index. Among the 30 CITIC first-class industries, the commerce and retail sector ranked 17th. Among the sub industries of the retail sector, supermarkets and convenience stores, comprehensive formats and e-commerce and services ranked the top, with an increase of 3.56%, 2.31% and 1.33% respectively. The PE quantile of commercial retail industry is greater than CSI 300. At present, the PE (TTM) of commercial retail industry is 95, which is in the quantile from small to large since 2005, which is 98.35%; The TTM of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300pe was 13.81 and the quantile was 53.22%.
Key recommended companies this week:
Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) : under the background of the implementation of provincial representative model + common prosperity, the company develops new momentum and maintains the buy rating. The moat of the company lies in its obvious channel advantages and strong profitability of terminal channels. In the future, with the help of the provincial generation model, the power to expand stores is sufficient, which is expected to achieve nationwide coverage and occupy an obvious card position advantage in the low-line market. The company benefits from the outbreak of wedding market brought by consumption recovery in the short term and the bonus of leading brands brought by the improvement of industry concentration under the background of common prosperity + the rise of national tide in the long term. The potential growth point lies in the rapid development of e-commerce business and the second growth curve of jewelry sub brands. The company has always maintained a high roe level of about 20% due to its strong profitability. We expect that the company’s revenue growth from 2021 to 2023 will be 79%, 34% and 24% respectively, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company will be 39%, 24% and 17% respectively. The corresponding PE valuation will be 14x, 11x and 10x respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Investment suggestions:
Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high outlook. We continue to recommend Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) and recommend paying attention to Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Investment main line 2: in the traditional new retail field, the business format of warehousing members is in full swing. It is suggested to pay attention to HEMA (Alibaba), Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) which actively layout the business format of warehousing stores.
Investment main line 3: the new retail field of e-commerce, the rapid development of live broadcasting and store self broadcasting, and the wave of community group buying, showing Matthew effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the business of voice, electricity, Alibaba and tiktok.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; Macroeconomic depression; Industry competition intensifies.
