Main points:
As of January 7, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.65% and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.39% this week. Steel sector rose 2.15%; Among the sub plates, the ordinary steel plate increased by 0.00%, and the special material plate decreased by 3.55%.
Steel market: the short-term is good, and the steel market shows a strong trend of shock
This week, steel prices are mainly stable. Steel prices rose slightly this week, spot prices of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling increased by 0.21%, 1.43% and 0.90% respectively, and the price of medium plate decreased by 0.59%. Resumption of trading this week’s steel market performance, although there are signs of resumption of supply, the increment brought by resumption of production is small. The demand side continues to weaken, and most traders are not willing to store in winter. The favorable residual temperature at the raw material end is still the main factor driving the price rise.
In terms of special steel, stainless steel has good support for a long time, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention. The price of stainless steel fluctuated upward recently, the transaction continued to improve, and the market recovered. In the long run, with the support of the national carbon peak policy, the reduction of crude steel production has become a deterministic trend, which is important for the price and profit of stainless steel. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) and other targets. As the core metal material in the field of new energy vehicles, electrical steel is also a plate worthy of attention. Electrical steel is the motor and core material of new energy vehicles. Under the resonance of carbon neutralization at the policy end, accelerated admission of new and old car making forces at the supply end, and improved economy and convenience at the consumer end, new energy vehicles have developed rapidly, driving the downstream demand for electrical steel, The electrical steel plate has ushered in a major opportunity, but the valuation of Companies in the plate is generally not high. They are optimistic about the electrical steel plate for a long time. It is suggested to focus on Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , etc.
As of Friday, the price of rebar in the spot market was 4770.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.21%; The price of hot rolled coil is 4950.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.43%; The price of cold rolled coil is 5580.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.90%; The price of medium plate was 5020.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.59%. In the futures market, the active contract price of rebar was 4526.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 5.70%; The active contract price of hot rolled coil was 4677.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 6.03%; The active contract price of wire rod was 4756.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 8.58%. The myspic composite steel price index was 176.76 points, with a weekly increase of 0.18%, of which the myspic long material index decreased by 0.14% and the myspic flat plate index decreased by 0.24%.
Raw material Market: Production restriction has risen again, and the raw material end has risen as a whole
The demand for iron ore improved this week, and the coke market rose for two consecutive rounds. In terms of dual coke, after the festival, the first round of coke prices rose and landed, frequent environmental protection inspections, and the improvement of upstream and downstream procurement enthusiasm reduced the supply of coke enterprises. Steel mills gradually resumed production this week, and the rigid demand for coke increased. With the rapid implementation of the second round of increase, the trend of tight supply and booming demand is strengthened. It is expected that China’s coke market may rise again next week. In terms of iron ore, with the resumption of production of steel mills and the routine replenishment before the Spring Festival, the demand for iron ore may continue to improve. It is expected that the iron ore market will have a strong shock next week.
As of Friday, the price of Australian Pb powder in the spot market was 825.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 6.45%; The price of primary metallurgical coke was 3110.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 10.68%; The price of main coking coal was 2150.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 7.50%. In the futures market, the active contract price of iron ore was 719.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 7.39%; The contract coke price was 3159.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 8.54%; The active price of coking coal was 2277.50 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.81%.
Steel supply and demand: the steel market presents a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the steel market has entered the stage of gradually accumulating stocks
Steel production increased this week. In terms of output, cold rolling, hot rolling, rebar and medium and heavy plate increased by 5.00%, 3.02%, 4.24% and 0.33% compared with last week, and wire rod decreased by 0.78%. In terms of steel mill inventory this week, the inventory of cold rolling, wire rod and rebar increased by 1.53%, 10.69% and 2.79% respectively, and the inventory of hot rolling and medium and heavy plate decreased by 3.99% and 3.47%. The gradual recovery of steel supply drives the rise of raw material prices, and the cost support of the steel market is strengthened again. China’s steel market has gradually changed from “weak supply and demand” to “strong supply and weak demand”. Therefore, China’s steel market will maintain a strong trend of shock in the short term.
Investment advice
With the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposed on the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the China Daily report and the special steel leader who can realize the high prospect of the industry: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Leaders in traditional fields + hot emerging business targets are more favored by the market. It is suggested to focus on stainless steel rods and wires and mica lithium extraction leaders: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ; And the high growth leader in the field of cold rolled stainless steel: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) .
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; The economic downturn accelerated; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The demand for real estate steel fell sharply; Steel destocking process is blocked.
