One week market review
This week, the Shenwan real estate index rose 4.46%, the CSI 300 index fell 2.39%, and the relative income was 6.85%. The performance of the sector was stronger than the market.
Industry fundamentals
This week (12.31-01.06), a total of 53886 first-hand houses were sold in 58 key cities tracked by West China real estate group, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 38% and a month on month growth rate of – 37.3%; The total transaction area was 5.484 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 38.9% and a month on month growth rate of – 37.2%.
This week (12.31-01.06), a total of 9784 second-hand houses were sold in 16 key cities tracked by West China real estate group, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 30.8% and a month on month growth rate of – 40.4%; The total transaction area was 900000 square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 35.7% and a month on month growth rate of – 44.4%. This week (12.31-01.06), the inventory area of commercial housing in 17 key cities tracked by West China real estate group was 196.952 million square meters, with a month on month growth rate of – 1.5%, and the decontamination cycle was 72.2 weeks.
This week (12.27-01.02), 12.323 million square meters of land was supplied, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 77.4%; The average supply price was 838 yuan / m2, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 69.5%. The land sold was 15.307 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 83.2%.
This week (December 31-January 06), real estate enterprises issued a total of 3.3 billion yuan of credit bonds, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 65.1% and a month on month growth rate of 13.6%. Real estate collective trusts issued a total of 5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 64.3% and a month on month growth rate of 47.1%.
Investment advice
This week, on January 5, the 2022 monetary and credit working meeting pointed out that it is necessary to continue to steadily implement the prudent management of real estate finance. We should adhere to the positioning of “houses are for living, not for speculation”, and strengthen the expected guidance. Commercial banks should further optimize the credit structure, improve their ability to serve the real economy, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. The cbcirc pointed out that by the end of November 2021, real estate loans had increased by 8.4% year-on-year, remained stable as a whole, the reasonable housing needs of buyers were further met, and more than 90% of personal housing loans were used to support the first loan. On January 5, Shandong Provincial Department of housing and urban rural development, the national development and Reform Commission, the Department of Finance and the Department of natural resources jointly issued the notice on announcing the planned tasks of affordable rental housing, public rental housing security and urban shantytowns in our province in 2022, which made it clear that 89000 new affordable rental housing units are planned to be started in Shandong in 2022, and 3463 affordable rental housing units are basically completed. Since January 1, 2022, Ji\’nan has abolished registered residence loan restrictions on housing provident fund. At the same time, according to the notice of Ningbo housing provident fund management committee, since January 1, 2022, families who have two or three children in accordance with the national fertility policy have continuously paid the housing provident fund for two years and applied for provident fund loan for the first time to buy the first self occupied house, the maximum loan limit of the housing provident fund has been increased from 600000 yuan / household to 800000 yuan / household. Similarly, since January 1, 2022, Maanshan City, Anhui Province has implemented the notice on implementing the housing provident fund loan support policy for high-level talents. High-level talents, either unilaterally or both husband and wife, can apply for housing provident fund loans when they have continuously deposited the housing provident fund for more than 6 months (including 6 months) and buy ordinary commercial houses (including second-hand houses) for the first time in Maanshan administrative region, The maximum loan is 600000 yuan; There is no limit on single and bilateral deposit, and the maximum loan amount is not linked to the monthly deposit amount and balance. On January 3, 2022, Qingdao housing provident fund center recently issued the notice on optimizing and adjusting the housing provident fund transfer and continuation and off-site loan policies in Jiaodong economic circle. Since January 4, 2022, deposit workers in the four cities of Jiaodong (Yantai, Weihai, Weifang and Rizhao) come to Qingdao and set up a personal account of housing provident fund in Qingdao to initiate the transfer and continuation application, The processing time limit is reduced to 1 working day to realize that the employees who pay in the five cities of Jiaodong enjoy the treatment in the same city.
At present, the valuation of the real estate sector is at a low level, with strong performance certainty and high dividends. We mainly recommend leading real estate enterprises with strong performance certainty China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Longguang group, Xuhui holding group, country garden, Baolong real estate and Country Garden Service in property management sector, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Xincheng Yue service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) and Nacity Property Service Group Co.Ltd(603506) . Relevant beneficiary objects include Longhu group, China Jinmao, poly property, green city services, etc.
Risk tips
Sales were lower than expected, and the real estate regulation policy was tightened.
