Baijiu plate: the main reason for the large fluctuation of the plate is the high expectations and the macro / emotional changes in the early stage. First Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) ; Pay attention to the possibility that the performance of Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) may be better than expected.
Food sector: this week, we conducted a survey on companies and channels in the leisure and snack sector. It is generally believed that the performance of goods preparation in the current year is slightly lower than that in previous years, but the performance of various brands is different; The sinking channel has excellent performance and has developed rapidly in recent years. In 2022, we will continue to look for structural opportunities and grasp three main investment lines: 1) food and catering industrialization; 2) New business increase α Subject matter; 3) High quality target with price increase logic. Combination this week: Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) , Jiajia Food Group Co.Ltd(002650) .
January 3rd ~1 7, 5 trading days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.39%, the food and beverage sector fell 3.78%, Baijiu plate rose less than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, down 4.68%. Specifically, the increase of Fujian Yanjing Huiquan Brewery Co.Ltd(600573) Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Company Limited(000869) (+ 2.61%) and Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) (+ 1.87%) in the beverage sector this week was relatively large, and the decrease of Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) (- 7.29%) and Jinhui Liquor Co.Ltd(603919) (- 7.46%) was relatively large; This week, the increase of Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) (+ 26.84%) and Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (+ 24.67%) in the food sector was the top, and the increase of Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) (- 19.23%) and Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (- 15.97%) were the bottom.
This week’s view
[Baijiu plate]: plate fluctuation increases, basically facing the good trend unchanged.
Plate review: Maotai series non-standard liquor prices increased, and liquor enterprises prepared goods and paid for them smoothly before the festival
January 3rd ~1 7, 5 trading days, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.39%, the food and beverage sector fell 3.78%, Baijiu plate rose less than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, down 4.68%. Specific Baijiu plate: Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (+0.08%), Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (-0.03%), Qinghai Huzhu Barley Wine Co.Ltd(002646) (-0.24%), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (=2.25%) decline is smaller, we think that the current plate fluctuations are mostly macro factors + early plus higher + emotional (News) level triggered callbacks, specifically:
1) macro level: the market is worried about foreign capital outflow due to the recent continuous rise of US bond interest rate and the increased expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, Or the formation of a certain inhibitory effect on the high valuation plate (during the 21 Spring Festival, the Baijiu plate had a large scale valuation phenomenon due to the higher macro factors of the US bond interest rate, thus triggering the market’s concern about whether the plate will be again massive callback this year after the festival).
2) capital: China Mobile is listed this week to attract some funds;
3) emotional aspect: this week’s Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) series liquor and non-standard price increase triggered the market’s concern that Feitian Maotai would not raise the price. At the same time, the rumors of Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) management change also had a short-term negative impact on the stock price. From a fundamental point of view, wineries started early to make money + some wine enterprises have a good start compared with previous years + dealers\’ inventory is generally low + approval prices are stable and positive under the tide of price increase + channel confidence has actively laid the foundation for a good start in 2022. It is expected that high-end wine will maintain steady growth in 2022q1, And the high-end liquor keeps high elasticity of performance ( Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and other profit growth rate will exceed 50%). The absolute value of the annual liquor business will steadily increase under the main line of price increase, and usher in a higher quality development. The current Baijiu industry or the “structural cattle” will be adjusted.
Update of individual stock Views: first promote Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , and pay attention to the high elasticity target at the beginning
1) gold stock Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) in January: short-term catalyst: 1) the Spring Festival has a good start and is expected to earn more than 10 billion yuan. 2) Blue and white series and thousand yuan price band blue and white 30 revival edition have both increased in volume and price, with excellent dynamic sales; The price increase of Bofen may exceed expectations. 3) New management may propose positive business objectives / initiatives. In the medium and long term, “three exceeding expectations” drive the logic of the whole year: the market expects that the company’s base is high, and it is difficult to exceed expectations, management changes or business fluctuations. We believe that under the guidance of “pulling out of the middle and high and controlling the low level”, the proportion of blue and white series increased + accelerated expansion outside the province + management change had little impact, or the performance exceeded expectations.
2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : Recently, after the company raised the comprehensive cost price to 969 yuan, the rating price has increased, which is currently stable at about 980 yuan. When the dealers make payment before the festival, some major merchants have completed the payment throughout the year, and some regions feed back that the proportion of payment before the festival is expected to be 40% +, which has a good start. At present, the company’s valuation is in a cost-effective state as a whole. In the state of excellent quality, we recommend paying attention to it.
3) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the early marketing reform + price increase logic has been gradually reflected in the stock price, and there have been many changes in the recent series of wines: 1) price increase: Six low-grade single products below 200 yuan, such as Maotai Prince and Yingbin, have been discontinued, six single products such as golden prince, Maotai classic and Han sauce have been increased by 10-15%, and the main products have been comprehensively increased to more than 200 yuan. 2) Target: the target revenue of the series of liquor at the end of the 14th five year plan will double to more than 24 billion yuan, accounting for more than 10% of the group. In addition, Maotai, the year of the tiger zodiac, was officially released, and the quota of some dealers of non-standard products was transferred to direct stores. It is expected that the fine / vintage wines whose prices are raised or will be raised will contribute to the new profits in 15 years.
4) Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : we believe that the performance growth mainly comes from the main sales market and old dealers, with the increase of channel volume and quality. The performance growth mainly comes from the main sales market and old dealers, with the increase of channel volume and quality. The proportion of feedback payment in some core regions is expected to reach 40%, which is optimistic about the ultra-high growth of 22q1 performance under the Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) low base.
5) Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) : under the guidance of the “three modernizations” strategy, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) product upgrading and market expansion momentum are improving. The establishment of V99 alliance may accelerate the upward movement of the structure. The channel is expected to complete the collection of 30% – 40% in 2022q1. It has started shipping last week. At present, the overall inventory is healthy and the company is optimistic about the elasticity of the start. Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) it is estimated that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the statement caliber of 23 years may exceed 10 billion and the sales caliber may exceed 16 billion. This year, as the first year of equity incentive implementation, the performance can be expected to make a good start with a low base and high elasticity.
6) Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) : 1) internal reference: the basic sales target of internal reference next year is 2.445 billion and the sprint target is 3 billion. Internal reference is expected to continue to double in 2022. 2) Drunkard series: under the strong waist strategy next year, the red altar will continue to increase. 3) The proportion of the company’s early account rolling + slight control of goods + good start payment is expected to be 30% – 35% (the internal reference is expected to be about 40%). At present, some dealers have started payment, and the good start profit can be expected to increase.
This week’s research and update: Henan Baijiu market, Sichuan Baijiu market, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729)
First, Henan Baijiu Market: the channel has basically finished stocking, and the high-end and high-end demand is better. [ Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) ] Spring Festival payment policy: 35-40% can be completed normally.
Investment attraction: Henan has basically stopped investment attraction since 2020, but the professionalism is increasing and the number of specialty stores is increasing. It is expected that investment attraction will not be liberalized in 2022. Expenses: the market expenses for Bofen and qing20 are high, and the investment is declining, but the price rise has little impact on the sales volume (strong demand). [ Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ] the current inventory of dealers / channels is not high, and the current progress basically reaches 20% – 30%. If the epidemic situation in Henan has little impact, it is expected to complete 40% before the Spring Festival.
Two, Sichuan Baijiu Market: the channel has a high enthusiasm. This year, the overall rhythm of beat is higher than that of last year, but it has been completed before and after the new year’s day. [Maotai] 1) goods preparation: the proportion of payment before the festival is about 20%. [ Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) ] 1) goods preparation: take the lead in starting goods preparation after the national day, requiring 30% – 40% before the festival (basically completed); 2) Rating: the rating is not expected to fluctuate much before the Spring Festival; 3) Classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : after the 1218 conference, there were actions on cultural communication. At present, there are multiple platform providers in Chengdu, and the rating of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) is currently strong at 1800. [Guojiao] 1) goods preparation: the dealer is required to return 30% of the payment in the first quarter; 2) Quota: at present, we are strictly investigating fleeing goods and the 1050 price red line. Recently, many dealers have been punished. The contract volume of some dealers in Guojiao may be reduced compared with the previous period to support the price.
III. Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) : loss making subsidiaries continue to reduce losses. Next year, profitability (price increase + promotion U8) and operation efficiency are expected to continue to improve or meet the turning point. First, loss making subsidiaries continue to reduce losses: the company has launched a series of special governance work, and may reduce losses significantly this year. Second, the profitability is expected to continue to improve next year: 1) price increase: in order to hedge cost pressure, it is expected that the price of main products will be increased in the off-season; 2) Upgrade: in the future, U8 will be promoted in an all-round way while launching more medium and high price products; 3) Product structure goal: from pyramid type to spindle type. Third, the operation efficiency will be improved: 1) personnel: in the future, the younger rate of employees will be improved to improve efficiency; 2) Market: increase the investment in advantageous markets and consolidate the base market.
Data update: the Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) rating performance this week is stable and the overall inventory performance is healthy
Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : the wholesale price of Feitian bulk bottles is about 2750-2900 yuan, and the wholesale price of the whole container is about 3300-3400 yuan. Recently, some dealers have begun to prepare goods for the Spring Festival, and it is expected to complete about 25% of the annual quota (from January to February). Recently, the prices of a series of wines and non-standard wines have increased; Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the wholesale price this week is stable at 970-980 yuan, and the wholesale price of classic clothes is about 1700-1800 yuan. Since the price increase of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , contracts are being signed in the coming year. It is expected that 20% of the payment will be collected before 1218 and 40% before the Spring Festival; Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : the rated price is about 900-910 yuan. The payment collection of Guojiao in 21 years has been completed (+ 35%), and the growth target of Guojiao next year is 30%. The overall performance of the rated price is stable.
Investment advice: fearless of short-term fluctuations, firmly optimistic about 22q1’s good start
We believe that the current plate fluctuation is mainly due to the high rise in the early stage + the fluctuation caused by the change of macro indicators / mood (News), which is basically good and has strong certainty: wineries start payment earlier + the goal of some wine enterprises is higher than that in previous years + the inventory of dealers is generally low + the approval price is stable and positive under the tide of price increase + channel confidence, actively laying the foundation for a good start in 2022, and it is suggested to match it on a bargain hunting basis. [summary] the current position is Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) . Pay attention to the possibility that the performance of Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) may be better than expected.
II. [food sector]: Research on leisure snacks sector
Sector review: the food sector rose as a whole this week
Plate growth: food processing sector rose 0.77%, of which seasoning plate fell 0.12%, dairy plate fell 2.43%, meat plate rose 2.81%.
In terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks: Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) (+ 26.84%), Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (+ 24.67%) and Qingdao Foods Co.Ltd(001219) (+ 23.30%) were among the top three in the sector. In the meat products sector, Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) (+ 4.57%), Jinzi Ham Co.Ltd(002515) (+ 3.28%) and Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) (+ 3.26%) led the gains; Seasoning sector Guangdong Jialong Food Co.Ltd(002495) (+ 5.56%), Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) (+ 3.98%) and Anji Foodstuff Co.Ltd(603696) (+ 1.46%) led the gains; In the dairy sector, Henan Kedi Dairy Co.Ltd(002770) (+ 10.87%), Royal Group Co.Ltd(002329) (+ 3.86%) and Zhejiang Yiming Food Co.Ltd(605179) (+ 1.39%) increased significantly; In the comprehensive food sector, Beijing Scitop Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300858) (+ 26.84%), Qinghai Spring Medicinal Resources Technology Co.Ltd(600381) (+ 24.67%) and Qingdao Foods Co.Ltd(001219) (+ 23.30%) led the gains.
Update this week: Research on leisure snacks: Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) , etc
This week, we went to Pingxiang, Changsha, Hefei and other places to conduct grass-roots research and company research on the annual stock of leisure snacks and various channels. The main conclusions are as follows: (only for the situation in Hunan or Changsha)
1) annual goods preparation: according to the channels of supermarkets and dealers, the current annual goods preparation of various brands is different, but overall, it is slightly lower than that in the same period in 2021, and the performance is not as good as that in previous years. The main reasons are: the epidemic situation is repeated, and the dealers are slightly cautious in preparing goods; In the past 21 years, the overall dynamic sales were average, and the enthusiasm of dealers was weakened.
2) channel situation: the performance of supermarkets’ channels is average, the performance of various brands in circulation channels is different, and the performance of sinking channels is excellent. We conducted research on supermarkets, circulation channels and sinking channels. The overall sales performance of supermarket channels is average due to the reduction of passenger flow and annual activities; Brands with strong brand advantages in distribution channels or product advantages in subdivided fields perform better, such as Qiaqia; Sunken channels (such as community stores and fruit stores) have performed well in the past 21 years and in the near future. We believe that the main reasons are: in recent years, community group shopping stores go deep into the periphery of consumers, and one-stop shopping is more convenient and fast; At the same time, the product price in the sinking channel is more favorable, and consumers’ purchase intention is enhanced.
We believe that due to the recent repeated epidemic and weak terminal demand, each family is slightly cautious in spending on New Year activities, and the stock of goods (leisure snacks) for the Spring Festival is slightly worse than that in previous years. But at the same time, we also observed:
1) for dealers, dynamic sales and brand power are still the factors most concerned by dealers, and brands and products that can provide more profits are more popular. For brands, it is necessary to continuously carry out product iteration and launch different product combinations;
2) at the same time, due to changes in consumers’ habits and external environment, channels are also changing. Sinking channels such as community stores and fruit stores have developed rapidly in recent years, the growth rate of the same store is also increasing rapidly, and various brands also seize the opportunity to layout; For example, the nut gift box launched by Qiaqia sells well in sink channels such as fruit stores; Yanjin, Ganyuan and other bulk products are also sold in community stores.
Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) : survey update
Business performance: Q4 sales in 21 years performed well, mainly because the Spring Festival this year was earlier than in previous years, and dealers actively prepared new year goods. In the future, we will continue to implement the 23-year target strategy of 10 billion tax (6 billion yuan for melon seeds, 30 yuan for nuts and 1 billion yuan for leisure snacks). Daily nuts continue to develop the sinking market through gift boxes, positioning the price band of 70-100 yuan, meeting the needs of festival gifts, and the market feedback is good.
Raw materials and prices: the price increase has been fully transmitted to the terminal, and the actual impact of the price increase on sales needs 22h1 observation. The raw materials purchased in the past 21 years have basically been used up, and the price increase of products can basically cover the price increase of newly purchased raw materials.
Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) : survey update
It is expected that the company’s performance will still maintain rapid growth in the future, and the new products are expected to be launched from February to march of 22 years to drive the performance growth. In the future, on the product side: with the expansion of category width, more products of other categories will be launched in 22 years to expand the company’s product matrix. Flavor nuts will continue to develop, and differentiated new products will continue to be launched around pine nuts, macadamia nuts, cashew nuts and Bigan nuts. Pay attention to the expansion of supermarket channels. Except Sam, other supermarkets such as metro are continuously expanding.
The sales team continues to adjust. At present, the adjustment is basically in place, increasing the number of Ka specialists and improving the expansion ability of 2B customers; At the same time, improve the management level of the original sales team and improve the standardized management level.
Jinzai Food Group Co.Ltd(003000) : survey update
Operation and performance: 21q3 revenue increased by 14%, industry demand recovered significantly, and 21q4 revenue continued to grow by double digits. 21q3 net profit increased by 8% and q1-3 decreased by 24%. The influencing factors are ① government subsidies
