Key changes this week: ① China Liansu established Guangdong Liansu Banhao photovoltaic new energy company. ② Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) released the performance forecast, taking the median, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 529 million yuan, an increase of 20% at the same time. ③ The "14th five year plan" action plan for the implementation of the Yangtze River Delta integrated development plan in Anhui Province is released, which proposes that the railway network density will reach 507 km / 10000 square kilometers and the expressway density will reach 4.85 km / 100 square kilometers in 2025. ④ Guangzhou lowered the mortgage interest rate again, reducing the first house to 5.65% and the second house to 5.85%. ⑤ Giant cooperation: Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) group (China building materials subsidiary) signed a strategic cooperation agreement on new energy projects with conch group. ⑥ Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) announce asset replacement.
The reason for Zhou Xing's affection: the recognition of capital construction logic is improved, and the pipes are in the lead; Capital hedging needs.
Core view:
(1): continuously prompt to attach great importance to the infrastructure chain, and recommend cement, pipe network construction, water reducing agent and waterproof in reverse cycle. The implementation of special bond projects is "early", "quasi" and "fast", and infrastructure investment is expected to play a "grasping" role to effectively hedge the downward pressure of Q1; Among them, the central economic work conference proposed that "pipelines are old and in disrepair", which is expected to be paid more attention during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The negative impact of recent gas leakage on safety accidents is great, and the construction of pipe network involves safety, and the necessity of renewal and maintenance is greatly increased.
(2) firmly optimistic about the to C retail model, the real estate boom is down, and pay more attention to the difference between high-quality operation and business model. On the other hand, the edge of hardbound housing is weakening, the impact on just needed housing is small, and the retail environment is relatively improved.
(3) the policy of the real estate chain is clear, and the marginal easing continues. From the perspective of landing, the improvement of the financing end gives priority to promoting the completion and delivery of houses. The demand for glass, hardware, coating, pipe, gypsum board and indoor waterproof is expected to pick up in the first half of the year.
(4) new materials throughout the year: the leader of building materials accelerates the R & D and promotion of new materials. For example, carbon glass composites of wind power blades, UTG glass (folding mobile phone application), medicinal glass, wind power grouting, photovoltaic glass, etc. It is suggested to focus on the application of new materials. The future revenue contribution is expected to increase steadily, smooth the periodicity of real estate / infrastructure, and facilitate the acquisition of emission indicators.
Key targets: ① reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elasticity is recommended to pay attention to [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ] [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], robustness + green power is recommended to pay attention to [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ], municipal and rural pipe network construction is recommended to pay attention to [China Liansu]. ② The performance of end C exceeded expectations, focusing on [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profitability, concentric circle strategy acceleration, and focusing on [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] of C + small B. ③ The real estate chain is optimistic about the stabilization of the valuation of consumer building materials. The core targets include [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ] [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ], and the key targets include [ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ] [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ]. ④ New materials focus on [ Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ] (UTG), [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ] (wind power grouting material, etc.), Guangdong Haomei New Materials Co.Ltd(002988) (automobile lightweight), [ Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co.Ltd(600529) ] (medium borosilicate tube bottle), [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ] (electronic / photovoltaic / medicinal glass), Fujian Supertech Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688398) , Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) , Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , [CSG a] (electronic / photovoltaic glass), [ Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) ] (photovoltaic glass). ⑤ Building materials export chain attention [ Cocreation Grass Co Ltd(605099) ] [ Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ] [ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ].
Risk warning: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
