In January and February, the main impact of bank stocks will still focus on economic and real estate fundamentals, steady growth and real estate policies. From January to February, the economy, especially domestic demand, may still be weak, private real estate risk events may still be exposed, and the efforts to stabilize growth and real estate will continue to strengthen. At this stage, the negative expectations of the market for the economy and real estate gradually tend to be full, and the subsequent efforts and results of stabilizing growth and real estate are pessimistic. The factors affecting the stock price from January to February include positive stable growth and stable real estate, as well as negative economic data and real estate risks. The data mainly published in January include the economic credit data of December and the whole year, and the relevant data in mid and late February or January. At present, the market has sufficient negative expectations and the probability of low expectations is low. If the effect of stable growth is low, the overweight of policies may be catalyzed, Combined with the performance of historical bank index in January, the probability of phased market in January is high.
In terms of individual stocks, under the long-term main line of structural reform, operation and management ability may be the core of stock selection. We recommend: Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , and suggest paying attention to Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) and other banks whose performance continues to grow rapidly and may publish express reports.
Bank: last week, the A-share banking sector rose 2.86%, while the CSI 300 index fell 2.01% over the same period. The A-share banking sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.88 percentage points. According to the Shenwan industry classification standard, the rise and fall of the banking sector ranked 4 / 29, with more upward adjustments than last week. All the stocks in the A-share banking sector were adjusted upward, with Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) (+ 8.24%), Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) (+ 7.14%), Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) (+ 6.75%), Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) (+ 6.35%), China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) (+ 4.78%) and Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) (+ 4.37%) the top gainers being Bank Of China Limited(601988) (+ 5.69%), China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) (+ 4.71%), China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (+ 4.13%) and Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) (+ 4.10%). Among H shares, only Huishang Bank (- 2.30%) adjusted downward.
Industry news review: (1) the central bank: printed and distributed the financial technology development plan (2022-2025), which proposed to strengthen financial technology governance and comprehensively shape digital capability. (2) The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank held the 2022 monetary and credit work conference: we should continue to steadily implement the prudent management of real estate finance and adhere to the positioning of “real estate without speculation”. (3) The central bank, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the foreign exchange bureau, Chongqing Municipal Administration and the Sichuan provincial government issued the plan for Chengdu and Chongqing to jointly build a western financial center to promote the construction of a two City Economic Circle in Chengdu and Chongqing. (4) Cbcirc: bancassurance institutions shall not outsource information technology management responsibilities and network security subject responsibilities. (5) National Development and Reform Commission: specify the transaction service fee of bank card: the debit card shall not be higher than 0.35%, and the single charge shall not exceed 13 yuan. (6) Cbcirc: banking financial institutions in the first November of last year: the non-performing rate was 1.89%, and the provision rate was 192.9%; New loans of 19.2 trillion; The balance of Pratt & Whitney small and micro loans was 18.7 trillion.
Market review: (1) capital: this week, the open market operation of the central bank remained stable, with a reverse repurchase investment of 40 billion, a reverse repurchase maturity of 700 billion, and a 7 / 14 day interest rate of 2.20% / 2.35%. The 1-day / 7-day / 14 day interbank offered rate increased by 51bp / decreased by 25bp / increased by 124bp to 1.89% / 2.37% / 1.96% respectively. The yield of one-year / 10-year Treasury bonds decreased by 6BP / and increased by 5bp to 2.23% / 2.81%. (2) Financial management: the average annual yield of financial products (Wande) this week decreased by 45bp to 1.48% compared with last week. The average annualized yield of Internet financial products on the 7th of this week was 2.33%, up 4bp from last week. (3) Interbank: last week, the interest rate of AAA + interbank certificates of deposit decreased by 54bp / 19bp / 13bp to 2.16% / 2.42% / 2.54% respectively in one month / three months / six months. At the end of December, the balance of interbank certificates of deposit was 13.90 trillion yuan, an increase of 87.04 billion yuan over the end of October.
Risk tip: the deterioration of asset quality caused by economic downturn exceeded expectations.
