Main points:
Nonferrous Metals underperformed the market this week, down 5.39%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.65% to close at 3579.54; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.46% to close at 14343.65; The CSI 300 fell 2.39% to close at 4822.37.
Base metal
The current market of base metals is relatively strong in this cycle. Futures market: LME aluminum, tin, nickel, copper, zinc and lead increased by 3.82%, 2.56%, 1.29%, 0.63%, 0.45% and 0.35% over the same period last week. China’s spot market: aluminum, zinc, tin and nickel increased by 4.52%, 2.70%, 1.18% and 0.10% respectively; Copper and lead fell by 0.58% and 0.32% compared with last week. Copper: copper prices fluctuated slightly this week. At the supply side, the overall supply of copper concentrate is loose and there are some disturbances. Kazakhstan has entered a state of emergency and has not affected the transportation of local copper mines. In terms of demand, China’s market consumption is still resilient, the downstream power and production restrictions are over, the operating rate of processing enterprises is gradually increasing, and some smelters are in production by the end of the year. As of Friday, SHFE copper inventory was about 29200 tons, down 23.57% from the same period last week. Aluminum: aluminum prices showed an upward trend this week, up 4.52% over the same period last week. The European energy crisis continues to ferment, and the rising cost of natural gas and electricity in Europe has stimulated many local aluminum plants to plan to reduce or stop production. At present, the production capacity of European aluminum plants is about 800000 tons. In terms of China’s supply, many aluminum plants in Guangxi have accelerated the resumption of production, but the short-term increment is limited. In terms of demand, the consumption in China’s downstream market has weakened, and the epidemic situation in many places has overlapped and the production is limited by the Winter Olympic Games. The consumption before the festival may further weaken. In terms of inventory, as of Friday, SHFE aluminum inventory was 314900 tons, down 2.69% from the same period last week. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) .
New energy metals
The price performance of new energy metals this week is relatively differentiated. Cobalt: the price of cobalt rose steadily this week. As of Friday, the spot price of cobalt in the Yangtze River was 497000 yuan / ton, up 0.40% from last week. The price of cobalt salt showed an upward trend as a whole. The price of cobalt sulfate was 105000 yuan / ton, up 1.94% from last week; The price of Co3O4 was 398500 yuan / ton, up 1.27% from last week. The cost of cobalt raw materials continues to rise, the production enthusiasm of smelters is not high, overseas transportation is limited, and the tension of cobalt raw materials continues. With the advent of the Spring Festival at the end of the year, the terminal stock volume may increase, and the cobalt price is expected to rise steadily. Lithium: the lithium salt market maintained stable operation this week, and the price of lithium salt increased. As of Friday, the price of lithium carbonate was 299000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 15.00% over last week; The price of lithium hydroxide was 225500 yuan / ton, up 4.64% year-on-year from last week. In winter, the output of mines and salt lakes is limited, and the operating rate of smelters is low. Traders have basically completed the preparation before the festival, and the market trading volume near the Spring Festival has decreased. It is expected that the high lithium price will maintain stable operation. It is suggested to focus on Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) targets of cobalt industry integration layout; Leading enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium resources Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ; Related subjects of salt lake lithium: Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) ; Lithium mica related subject matter: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangdian special machine; Related subject matter of spodumene: Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) .
Precious metals
The precious metals fluctuated downward as a whole this week. Gold: as of Friday, Comex gold price was US $1796.5/oz, down 1.86% from last week; Spot gold in London was $1792.6 per ounce, down 1.51% from last week. Silver: Comex silver price was US $22.39/oz, down 4.15% from last week; The spot silver price in London was US $22.24/ounce, down 3.66%. The global epidemic continues to disturb the precious metal market, and inflation may continue to strengthen. The minutes of the Federal Reserve release hawkish signals, which may raise interest rates and shrink the table in advance, and the gold price is under pressure. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) .
Risk tips
The demand is less than expected; The European energy crisis continues to ferment; Risk of policy changes.
