Main points:
Pig prices fell 7.3% to 14.87 yuan / kg on a weekly basis, and the willingness to fill columns was flat on a weekly basis. ① Pig prices fell 7.3% week on week. On Saturday, the national pig price was 14.87 yuan / kg, down 7.3% on a weekly basis; On Friday, the national average wholesale price of pork was 22.74 yuan / kg, down 1.5% on a weekly basis. The loss of self bred pigs was 155.46 yuan / head, and the profit of outsourcing piglet breeding was 103.06 yuan / head. ② The proportion of low body reborn pigs out of the market was flat on a week-on-week basis, and the willingness to make up the market was flat on a week-on-week basis. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (12.31-1.6): the number of pigs within 90kg in China accounted for 10.53%, which was flat on a weekly basis, an increase of 3.16 percentage points over the middle of October. Affected by the low temperature in winter, the epidemic situation picked up; This week, the market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm was 408 yuan / head, up 1.2% on a weekly basis, up 164.9% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1676 yuan / head, up slightly on a weekly basis, up 35.4% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ In 2021, all listed pig enterprises achieved year-on-year growth. Most listed pig enterprises have published the December 2021 report. In 2021, the number of slaughter (10000 heads) from high to low is Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 4026.3, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 1492.7, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 1321.7, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) 430.8, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 428, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 324.6, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) 160.3, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) 154.2, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 106.9; From high to low, the year-on-year growth rate of listing volume is Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 141%, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) 133%, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 122%, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 56%, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) 51%, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 39%, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 38%, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 33%, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) 19%. ④ The inflection point of the pig cycle still needs to be observed. The bottom area of the valuation of mainstream companies can change time for space. From October 2019 to may 2021, the stock of fertile sows in China continued to rise month on month, corresponding to the rise of pig sales before May 2022, and pig prices are expected to continue to fall after the Spring Festival. In June 2021, the number of fertile sows in China was at an inflection point. From July to November, the number of fertile sows decreased by 6.9% month on month. However, since late October 2021, the prices of piglets and breeding pigs have rebounded sharply, and the recent decline in pig prices has not led to the decline in the enthusiasm to make up the market. The change in the stock of fertile sows in the later stage still needs to be observed; In addition, with the clearance of inefficient sows, the efficiency of breeding pigs continues to improve, and a large amount of pork imports need to be digested for two consecutive years, and the inflection point of the pig cycle is not clear. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic in the pig industry, the pig price will be relatively low in 2022, and the industry is still in the stage of capacity clearing. Based on the expected slaughter volume in 2022, the average market value of each pig enterprise is Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 5439 yuan, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 4935 yuan, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 2151 yuan, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 2440 yuan and COFCO Jiakang 2230 yuan; Premium from the lowest point in history, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 59%, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 51%, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 45%, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 17% and COFCO Jiakang 35%. From the perspective of 2022, the valuation of mainstream listed pig enterprises is in a reasonable valuation, and it is recommended to pay active attention.
The price of white feather chicken products rose 0.6% on a weekly basis, and the price of Yellow Feather Rose and fell on a weekly basis.
① the price of white feather chicken products increased by 0.6% on a weekly basis. In the 51st week of 2021 (12.27-1.2), the price of parental chicken seedlings was 34.44 yuan / set, with a decrease of 12.2% on a weekly basis; The sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings was 1.1487 million sets, an increase of 22.4% month on month; On Friday, the price of white feather chicken was 9680 yuan / ton, up 0.6% week on week. In 2020, the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million sets, with a year-on-year decrease of 18%. The price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; From January to October this year, the national ancestral renewal volume was 1047100 sets, a year-on-year increase of 31%, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices rose and fell week on week. Affected by the covid-19 epidemic situation, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of the yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 was second only to that in 2013 impacted by the “human infection h7n9 epidemic” event, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 2021, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. As of the 48th week of this year (11.29-12.05), the stock of yellow feather’s parents\’ generation was 13.458 million, and the sales of yellow feather’s parents\’ generation chicken seedlings were 1.0398 million, all at the lowest level since 2018. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. On January 4, 2022, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast big chicken was 6.85 yuan / kg, down 0.6% on a week-on-week basis and 2.3% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of medium speed chicken was 6.99 yuan / kg, down 5.8% week on week and up 0.1% year on year; The average price of native chicken was 8.59 yuan / kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; Black bone chicken was 7.33 yuan / kg, down 0.1% month on week and 2.4% year-on-year.
The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and the leader of seed industry is expected to fully benefit.
The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and we judge the impact as follows: ① the sale of GM corn seeds may begin in the second half of 2023. The revised draft may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production will be carried out as soon as 2023 and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. ② Corn seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. The promotion area of genetically modified maize in China is expected to reach 400-500 million mu. If the gene patent fee of 10 yuan per mu can correspond to a revenue of 4-5 billion yuan, the maize seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. ③ Seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) have obtained biosafety certificates for genetically modified maize traits; Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) has high-quality maize germplasm resources; Syngenta is a global agricultural technology giant and the national team of China’s seed industry. Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) and Syngenta are expected to stand out in the commercialization process of China’s transgenic seed industry. As it will take time for production experiment, variety approval and performance fulfillment, it is expected that the seed industry sector will fluctuate upward. China’s pet market has great potential, and the epidemic has dragged down the gradual end.
From 2010 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China’s pet consumption market was as high as 30.9%; In 2020, the scale growth of China’s pet consumption market slowed down to 2% and maintained single digit growth in 2021. We believe that the main reason for the slowdown in 2020-2021 is that the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic has significantly increased the downward pressure on the economy and delayed the entry of potential PET consumers into the market. However, from the medium and long-term perspective, the penetration rate of pets in China is 17%, while that in the United States, Australia, Britain and Japan is as high as 68%, 62%, 45% and 38% respectively; The annual consumption expenditure of pet dogs and cats in China is US $869 and US $679 respectively, which are lower than that of major pet raising countries. China’s pet consumption market has great growth potential. From the perspective of the company, Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) is affected by exchange and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) is affected by the shutdown of factories in Vietnam. We continue to recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) .
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
