Main points:
We believe that the investment strategy of the chemical industry is to invest in systematic innovation and low-cost expansion. The next wave of industrial pattern of chemical industry depends on talent competition. The chemical industry has changed from a simple capital intensive industry to a talent and capital intensive industry. The latecomers can’t surpass the capital and can only stare at the latecomers. Therefore, the periodicity of the chemical industry becomes weaker. With effective incentives, excellent management and continuous innovation, excellent companies have created unshakable advantages in technology iteration, low cost and efficient service, and conquered cities and territories in the global market.
Carbon neutralization may bring disruptive changes and opportunities to the chemical industry
Carbon neutralization has a far-reaching impact on the chemical industry. According to npcpi statistics, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and basic chemical industry lead all industries in carbon emission, accounting for about 18% of the total national carbon emission, of which “process carbon emission” accounts for about 6% and “engineering carbon emission” accounts for about 12%, which is greatly affected by the 3060 carbon neutralization target. From the perspective of industry evolution, we believe that the chemical industry is expected to experience three stages in the context of carbon neutrality in the next 40 years:
The first stage reaches the peak step by step. There are many chemical products. The energy consumption and carbon emission of each product are different, and its carbon peak requirements may be different. We understand that for high energy consuming products or industries, it does not mean that there is no development, but the peak will be reached first, and low energy consuming products or industries are expected to obtain a longer growth window;
The second stage of future competition is downstream and overseas. With the carbon peak, the upstream bulk raw materials in China’s chemical industry hit the ceiling due to relatively high energy consumption, but without a large amount of new production capacity, the profit center increased significantly. The huge cash flow obtained by large chemical enterprises either invested in the downstream fine chemicals and new materials, or continued to expand the production capacity of similar products, Just transfer the new capacity to countries or regions with greater carbon capacity. In the second stage, chemical enterprises may face large-scale technological transformation of public works, and use green energy alternatives to reduce energy consumption, so as to reduce the tax costs related to carbon neutralization;
The third stage is the era of bio based materials and energy. Chemical products are closely related to people’s lives, and the demand will not disappear because of policies. However, under the goal of carbon neutralization, fossil based materials may face subversive impact locally. Bio based materials are a possible alternative / supplement. With the decrease of the cost of bio based materials, the increase of the cost of fossil based materials (the increase of carbon emission taxes) and the breakthrough of bio based materials of “non grain” raw materials, bio based materials are expected to become a new bottom material for global industry.
It is worth emphasizing that the above is the idea of industry evolution for 40 years. 3060 mainly affects the ceiling of long-term high energy consuming products or industrial development, and has little impact on the approved planning projects. In addition, a series of operable policies will evolve under the 3060 goal. With the implementation of specific policies and the breakthrough of new technologies (including synthetic biology, new energy storage technology, new nuclear power technology, new recovery technology, etc.), the three stages we understand may also be staggered.
The national development and Reform Commission issued a notice on accelerating the demonstration construction of comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste. On January 4, the general office of the national development and Reform Commission issued a notice on accelerating the demonstration construction of comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste. 40 demonstration bases for comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste and 60 backbone enterprises for comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste were announced. The national development and Reform Commission said that this notice is to accelerate the construction of the base and the cultivation of backbone enterprises, ensure that the construction objectives and tasks are completed on schedule, further improve the comprehensive utilization level of bulk solid waste, promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in the comprehensive utilization of resources, and help achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization. The notice requires all localities to attach great importance to the demonstration construction of comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste, strengthen the implementation and promotion, ensure that the construction objectives determined in the implementation plan are completed on schedule, and promote the realization of the goal of “reaching about 4 billion tons of annual comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste by 2025”.
On January 6, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of natural resources, the Ministry of ecological environment, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the Ministry of transport and the Ministry of emergency management jointly issued a notice on printing and distributing the administrative measures for the construction standards and Accreditation of chemical parks (for Trial Implementation). The measures are divided into five chapters, including general provisions, construction standards, park identification, park management and supplementary provisions, with a total of 26 articles. It aims to further standardize the construction and identification management of chemical parks and improve the safe development and green development level of chemical parks. Industry maintenance:
[petrochemical sector]
Pure benzene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1628400 tons, the same as last week.
Toluene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.6301 million tons, an increase of 54000 tons over last week.
Propylene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 8.49 million tons, an increase of 1.1 million tons over last week.
Butadiene: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 752000 tons, the same as last week.
Isobutylene: there is no production capacity under maintenance this week, which is the same as last week.
Bisphenol A: the production capacity under maintenance this week is 300000 tons, 150000 tons less than last week.
PX: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 9.415 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons over last week.
PTA: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 25.27 million tons, an increase of 2.8 million tons over last week.
Acrylic acid: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 80000 tons, the same as last week.
Butyl acrylate: it is under maintenance this week, with a total capacity of 160000 tons, the same as last week.
Propylene oxide: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.51 million tons, the same as last week.
[coalification plate]
Ethylene glycol: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 6.19 million tons, an increase of 800000 tons over last week.
Acetic acid: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 6.71 million tons, the same as last week.
Acetic anhydride: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 310000 tons, the same as last week.
Adipic acid: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 915000 tons, the same as last week.
DMF: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 70000 tons, the same as last week.
[polyurethane plate]
MDI: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.87 million tons, the same as last week.
TDI: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 2.237 million tons, the same as last week.
[chemical fiber plate]
Polyester chip: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 300000 tons, the same as last week.
Polyester bottle chips: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 3.95 million tons, the same as last week.
Polyester staple fiber: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.77 million tons, 100000 tons less than last week.
Polyester filament: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 13.1432 million tons, an increase of 80000 tons over last week.
Nylon slicing: there are 2 companies in maintenance this week, an increase of 1 over last week.
[pesticide and fertilizer sector]
Synthetic ammonia: a total of 65 companies were under maintenance this week, an increase of 1 over last week.
Risk tips
Policy disturbance; Technology diffusion; New technology breakthrough; Global intellectual property disputes; Global trade disputes; The tightening of carbon emission brings the risk of catching up with production capacity; Risk of sharp decline in oil prices; The risk of a sharp economic downturn.
