Key points
Profit rebounded + valuation fell, and the value of plate allocation increased
Steady growth is expected to heat up, and the real estate chain is favored by funds. In the first week of January, the home appliance index outperformed the market by 6.8 points, and the increase was in the forefront of the market. In terms of policy, the fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report of the central bank proposed for the first time to "give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, be more proactive and promising, and increase support for the real economy". Deputy director Han Wenxiu proposed that "all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced". In this context, the market's expectation of "steady growth" of policy makers is enhanced, the valuation of relevant sectors of the superimposed real estate chain is low, and the relevant sectors are favored by funds. Looking forward to the future, we believe that although the tail risk of the real estate industry has not been fully released, under the condition that the tone of steady growth this year is relatively clear, guaranteed delivery and completion will become the focus of policy, and the recovery of prosperity of real estate related industries is worth looking forward to.
In terms of home appliance fundamentals, we selected 17 home appliance stocks as the research object. Their overall ROE (TTM) has been in a downward channel since the mid-18 year report peaked. The ROE (TTM) in the third quarterly report of 20 years was the lowest value of 17%, and then rebounded. As of 21, the ROE (TTM) in the third quarterly report of 21 years has rebounded to 21%, still 23% lower than the historical average (the first quarterly report of 2014 - the third quarterly report of 2021). Looking forward to 2022q1, the bad situation of the household appliance sector is gradually passivated + the valuation is low, and the time point of better configuration is approaching. (1) Negative passivation: raw material prices open a downward channel, the superposition base increases, and the upstream cost pressure decreases marginally in 2022. (2) Low valuation: the overall PE valuation of core household appliance stocks fell back to the historical average relative to the market. (3) Increase in allocation value: the experience of the past 16 years shows that Q4 to Q1 the next year is a period with high winning rate. It is suggested to focus on three main lines: (1) traditional leaders benefiting from fundamental recovery, focusing on Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ; (2) Focus on Hisense Visual Technology Co.Ltd(600060) , equity reform catalysis + laser TV volume + products going abroad; (3) Emerging household appliances with high prosperity include Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) .
Fundamentals: the decline in real estate sales narrowed in November, and home appliance retail was slightly weak
Real estate data: from January to November 2021, the national sales area of commercial housing increased by 5% (compared with the same period of 19 years + 6%) compared with the same period of 2020, and the single month in November 2021 decreased by 14% compared with the same period of 2020, which was lower than before, mainly due to the marginal improvement of the credit environment and the slight easing of the capital pressure of real estate enterprises. From January to November, the completed area of houses was + 16% year-on-year, of which + 13% year-on-year in November. The growth rate of completed area increased significantly month on month, or due to the relaxation of short-term capital chain.
Production and sales of household appliances: (1) air conditioners: in terms of delivery, 9.78 million household air conditioners (yoy-2.4%) were shipped in November, including 5.17 million domestic sales (yoy-4.5%). The rise in manufacturing costs led to higher terminal prices and flat retail demand; In November, the export of 4.6 million air conditioners (YoY + 0.1%) narrowed, mainly because the demand for goods preparation gradually slowed down. Retail end: in November, the volume / volume of air-conditioning omni-channel retail sales was - 21% / - 16% year-on-year, and - 45% / - 36% respectively compared with the same period in 2019, mainly due to weak real estate sales, weak double 11 promotion and other factors. In terms of price, the average price of the industry has been positive year-on-year since 20q4, and the online / offline price maintained growth in November, with a year-on-year increase of + 3% / + 13% respectively; (2) Chef's electricity: in November, the omni-channel retail volume / volume of range hood was - 18% / - 8% year-on-year, and - 13% / - 6% year-on-year. The boom was poor, mainly due to the excessive release of demand at the beginning of the year and the sluggish real estate sales; (3) Refrigerators & washing machines: the volume / volume of refrigerators in November was - 12% / - 3% compared with the same period in 2020 and - 8% / + 2% compared with the same period in 19. The retail volume / volume of washing machines in November was - 16% / - 12% compared with the same period in 19 and - 6% / - 3% compared with the same period in 19. (4) Clean appliances: in November, the online retail volume / volume of clean appliances was - 7% / + 27% year-on-year, and the offline retail volume / volume was - 32% / - 21% year-on-year. The increase of the base led to a slowdown year-on-year.
Risk analysis: real estate sales are less than expected; The cost of raw materials has risen sharply; The local currency appreciated sharply.
