Market Review
In the current period (from January 3 to January 7), the CSI 300 fell 2.4%, and the machinery sector fell 2.0%, ranking 17 among the 28 Shenwan industries. In terms of subdivided industries, construction machinery increased the most, up 7.0%; Laser processing equipment fell the most, down 13.9%.
This week’s view
The electrification of construction machinery may promote the further concentration of the industry pattern.
In the past 1-2 years, the electrification of mixer truck, loader, rotary drilling rig, aerial work platform and other products has been promoted rapidly, and electric products such as excavator and pump truck of various brands are also launched one after another. Although the initial purchase cost of electric products is relatively expensive, the economy of electric products is more obvious in the whole life cycle. Moreover, electrification is a nonlinear growth, and the cost may accelerate downward in the future. Referring to passenger cars, the penetration rate has reached 20%, but construction machinery emphasizes economy more. It is expected that the electrification of construction machinery will be faster than that of passenger cars. The policy is also an electric booster for construction machinery. For example, Zhengzhou has stipulated that all new mixer vehicles will be pure electric vehicles from August 1, 2021. Some first tier cities will also require urban construction in the future, and pure electrical equipment must be used to reduce emissions and noise. Considering that the stock of construction machinery and equipment is very large and many emission standards are relatively low, electric alternative fuel will give birth to a huge demand for renewal. At present, the motorized products of construction machinery are still in their infancy, the penetration rate is still very low, and the whole is still in single digits. China’s leading enterprises are in an absolute leading position in the trend of electrification. Without the need to fight a price war, they will realize the replacement of fuel equipment, the market share is expected to increase rapidly, and the gross profit margin is 10 points higher than the original fuel equipment. At present, it is very obvious in the field of mixer truck, and loader, excavator, rotary drill and other products will also be promoted in the future!
Investment suggestions:
At present, the motorized products of construction machinery are still in the initial stage and the penetration rate is still very low. In the future, with the gradual maturity of the “three electricity” technology and the continuous reduction of manufacturing costs, the economy of motorization will gradually highlight. It is recommended to focus on Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) and other motorized leading enterprises, which are expected to gain more market share and more prominent leading position in the tide of electrification!
Risk tips
Macroeconomic fluctuations, external demand fluctuations.
