Investment advice
21 years, the rise of tiktok and the diversion of Amoy system, overlay retail weakness and epidemic relapse, and Amoy the Department of cosmetics and growth, and bear pressure; Local and shake brands take the lead in the layout of the trill, H2 international tiktok, ranking rise. Tiktok and jitter, etc., show strong brand / product performance and excellent channel competition, which is the return of brand / product competition.
The flow is decentralized, and those who are optimistic about the brand / product strength will attack cities and land on multiple platforms / channels. 1) Skin care: be optimistic about international high-end brands with strong brand strength, strong product strength, local mass brand Winona / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) / Dr. yu’er, local high-end brand runbaiyan / kuadi, relevant targets Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) / Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) / Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , etc; 2) Make up: it mainly focuses on the base makeup with deep barriers / high viscosity, the make-up artist brand Mao Geping to expand skin care, the Guofeng make-up artist brand Caitang and the Guofeng brand huaxizi, and the related targets Mao Geping / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) .
Industry perspective
Amoy skin care: market growth is under pressure, efficacy / high-end trend continues, and local efficacy / high-end brands rise
In the 21 year, sales of Amoy skin care products dropped by 0.8%, and the flow of voice and voice was partially restored, increasing by 14.3%, tiktok still slowing down. The concentration has increased, the international brand pattern of the head is stable, and the list of local brands in the head has changed greatly. Winona / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) has entered the top ten in 18 and 21 years with strong product strength.
Classification: 1) efficacy skin care products have the highest scenery, among which the performance of local (Winona and Yuze) is stronger than that of international. 2) The annual growth rate of local brands and international brands has little difference, and the difference is seasonal fluctuation. During the great promotion period, international brands have strong attraction. 3) the high-end trend continues, and the international high-end growth rate is lower than the local high-end (run Bai Yan / tiktok), mainly for the high-end international brand of the head, with the volume and flow of the voice, and the performance of the mid tail brand is weak. The competitive advantage of local brands in the public side is still, and the growth rate is higher than that of the international public.
Tiktok skin care: 21 years, TOP300 GMV brand of tiktok skin care, accounting for 16% of the total, and the monthly volume of the volume. Local brands and brands took the lead in layout, and the ranking was improved under the catalysis of international big brand Q4. The proportion of head / shoulder / waist anchor with goods is high, 12.8% of store self broadcast and 12.8% of head brand self broadcast.
Amoy Makeup: big market decline, local tiktok brand voice, sluggish flow growth, fatigue, makeup artist brand rise
21 years, the Department of cosmetics and tiktok dropped 12%, and the voice and voice flow was partially restored, and the same was reduced by 0.31%. The concentration of the diary is improved, and the perfect diary / Hua Xizi and other tiktok are the first to shake the voice and the diversion effect is obvious, which is a drag on the performance of the Amoy system.
In terms of classification: 1) international high-end brands perform better; 2) The growth of local head brands is weak, the homogenization of middle waist fashion FMCG brands is fierce, and the cosmetics brands (Mao Geping and Caitang) are rising.
Tiktok: 21 years tiktok TOP300 brand GMV accounted for 12.8% of the Tao family, local brand dominates, and international brand ranking is promoted. Waist + potential anchor with goods accounts for a high proportion, self broadcast accounts for 19%, and head brand self broadcast accounts for a high proportion.
Key company tracking
Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) main brand Tmall store increased 51% in 21 years, tiktok essence sold in December, beautiful voice, and 21 years’ voice selling 390 million yuan, self broadcast. Baby tmall store has sold 40 million in 21 years. Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) tiktok Tmall store increased 55% in 21 years, sold well in large single products, sold 860 million yuan in 21 years, and had a high proportion of self broadcasting. Caitang is expected to exceed 300 million yuan in the whole year. Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) Q4 Tmall’s tiktok store increased by 93% and lotus slipped, gradually shaking. Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) baicaoji Taiji + new Qibai series new products have achieved initial results, tmall store has recovered positive growth in 21 years, and Yuze tmall store has increased by 13% in 21 years; The channel is still tiktok. Mao Geping increased 88% in Tmall stores in 21 years, and contributed tiktok to the main products and increased the proportion of high-end skin care products. Yi Xian Electric Business Amoy is high-end skin care high growth, color cosmetics with the drop, vibrato perfect diary tiktok.
Risk tips
Weak terminal retail; Stricter policy supervision; Marketing and jitter channels are not as tiktok as expected.
