\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 709 Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) )
Key investment points
In 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 was 1.498 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 422% / + 129%, exceeding market expectations. In 2022, Q1 company realized an operating revenue of 5.149 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 229.71% / + 15.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.498 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 422.19% / + 128.81%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.495 billion yuan, with a month on month ratio of + 427.01% / + 126.92%; In 2022, the gross profit margin in Q1 was 44.04%, with a month on month ratio of + 9.71pct / + 14.96pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 29.09%, with a month on month ratio of + 10.72pct / + 14.44pct.
In 2022, 60000 tons of electrolyte were shipped in Q1, with a month on month increase of 20% +, and the volume rose sharply, exceeding the market expectation. In terms of shipment, we expect the company to ship 60000 tons + in 2022q1, with a month on month increase of 20%, more than doubling year-on-year growth. The epidemic has a slight impact on the company’s logistics level, and the production side is normal. We expect Q2 to continue to rise month on month. With the release of hexafluoride production capacity, we expect the company to ship 350000 tons in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 140% +. In terms of profitability, after deducting the impact of lithium carbonate inventory income, we expect the company’s Q1 net profit per ton to be nearly 20000 yuan / ton, significantly higher than 14000 yuan / ton in 2021q4, and the profitability is expected to be further improved throughout the year.
Issue convertible bonds, accelerate the integrated production capacity layout, and increase the production capacity planning of hexafluoride, lifsi and various additives. The company announced that it plans to raise 3.47 billion yuan for planned project investment; The production capacity of 150000 tons of liquid hexafluoride is expected to reach the production capacity from 2023 to 2024. The total planned capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate of the company is 155000 tons (converted into solid), corresponding to the supporting capacity of electrolyte of more than 1.2 million tons, with obvious integration advantages. In addition, the subsidiary Zhejiang Tianshuo VC project will be completed and put into operation in 2021, and the production capacity of VC, lithium difluorophosphate, DTD and other new additives will be gradually released from 2022 to 2023, strengthening the company’s integrated competitiveness and thickening profits, which can effectively hedge the decline of hexafluoride price cycle.
The profit of iron phosphate has increased significantly, and the capacity expansion has accelerated. It is expected that the shipment will increase rapidly in 2022 and the traditional daily chemical industry will grow steadily. We expect that the iron phosphate shipment in 2022q1 will be about 9000 tons; The company announced that Yichang Tianci iron phosphate 300000 ton project phase II has a planned total capacity of 200000 tons and a construction period of 9 months. We expect to put into operation 150000 tons in 2022. The company’s daily chemical business grew steadily. We expect Q1 to contribute about 60 million yuan of profit, and the whole year is expected to contribute about 300 million yuan of profit. The company added 185000 tons of daily chemical new material production capacity to support the stable growth of daily chemical business.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company’s profitability is higher than expected. We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 5.59672879572 billion (originally expected to be RMB 5.5527273/9.67 billion), a year-on-year increase of + 153% / 30% / 31%, corresponding to 14 / 11 / 8 times of PE, 20 times of PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of RMB 116, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the policy is less than the market expectation, and the competition intensifies
