Industry core view:
Last week, the basic chemical index fell 4.79%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.39% in the same period, and the basic chemical index lost 2.40 percentage points to the market in the same period. The petroleum and petrochemical index rose 2.78%, outperforming the market by 5.17 percentage points in the same period. Among them, Goody Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002694) (46.43%), Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) (16.03%), St red sun (15.57%), Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co.Ltd(688196) (13.88%) and * ST Dewei (11.92%) ranked among the top five; The companies with the top five declines were: Shaanxi Meibang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(605033) (- 29.61%), Sinomach General Machinery Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600444) (- 24.11%), Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) (- 21.45%), Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) (- 20.76%) and Changjiang materials (- 19.37%).
Key investment points:
Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid: last week, the weakness of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in the Chinese market was sorted out, and the pricing of mainstream manufacturers was lowered in January. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of January 7, the mainstream price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China’s market was 11100 yuan / ton, down 4.72% on a weekly basis; The market price in East China is 11000-12000 yuan / ton, and the market price in North China fluctuates between 10600-11500 yuan / ton. On the cost side, the price of 97% fluorite dry powder in East China and central China market decreased slightly, and the stability of North China market was maintained; Sulfuric acid prices continued to be weak. The demand side refrigerant market continues to be depressed, the start-up has not improved, the manufacturer purchases on demand, and the short-term demand for anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has not improved. At the supply side, the operating rate of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China is about 71%, and the overall supply is sufficient. It is expected that anhydrous hydrofluoric acid will continue to weaken in the short term.
Glufosinate: last week, the price of glufosinate in the Chinese market fell again. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, at present, the supplier’s quotation for glyphosate is 350000-36000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is 300000-31000 yuan / ton. On January 7, the mainstream price of 95% glyphosate raw powder was 305000 yuan / ton, down 4.69% on a weekly basis. At present, there is sufficient supply of glyphosate in the market, but the wait-and-see mood at the downstream demand side is strong, and the actual transaction atmosphere is cold. Based on the sales pressure of inventory clearance, the manufacturer may continue to reduce the price of glyphosate.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1 In the context of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Rely on new energy, seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen its business cycle and improve its valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are mainly planned during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the overseas epidemic situation is serious, the international shipping logistics is blocked, the international crude oil price continues to fluctuate, the epidemic situation in some parts of China repeatedly affects the enterprise operation risk, and the chemical product price fluctuates.
