\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 137 Ningbo Boway Alloy Material Co.Ltd(601137) )
China is a leader in high-end copper alloy materials, and the product structure continues to be optimized. For more than 20 years, the company has been upgraded from a traditional copper alloy processor to a new material application solution provider. It is one of the enterprises with the most complete high-end alloy brands and the largest output. Benefiting from the continuous optimization of product structure and the industrialization of R & D investment, the company's profitability is on the rise.
The domestic substitution space of high-end copper materials is broad, and the downstream application is multi-point flowering. China's copper sector and strip industry has a low concentration, with excess supply at the low end and import dependence at the high end. 5g mobile phone replacement boom is coming, and VC soaking sector may be the mainstream solution of heat dissipation system; High speed growth of domestic lead frame materials; The connector puts forward high performance requirements such as high current and high voltage. At the same time, the company's products meet the performance requirements of the automotive electronics industry under different temperature conditions. In the future, it is expected to improve the product application structure and enhance profitability under the continuous boom of new energy vehicles.
R & D and construction of moat, precision filament / photovoltaic open incremental space. The company is one of the leaders in China who focus on the research and development of high-performance alloys and stable mass production. The gross profit margin driven by technology research and development is ahead of its Chinese counterparts. Expand the production of 70000 tons of strip to solve the capacity bottleneck. It is estimated that the proportion of the company's sales of electronic materials will increase to 25.92% in 22 years. The attribute of the electronic industry will gradually highlight. At the same time, the gross profit margin of new capacity is high, which will further open up the space for profit. Precision filament business collaboration, help develop the automotive electronics market and open up the space for performance growth; The global demand for photovoltaic installation continues to increase, and the profits of new energy business are gradually repaired.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.44/0.82/1.06 yuan respectively, the demand for high-end copper alloy materials will increase rapidly, and the company's new production capacity will be put at the right time. While the main business shows the trend of "simultaneous increase in volume and price", the business structure will be improved and the profit space will be opened up. We will give the company 20 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 16.50 yuan, and give the "buy" rating for the first coverage.
Risk warning: the downstream demand for high-end copper alloy materials is lower than the expected risk; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Risk that bode hi tech's performance commitment cannot be fulfilled.
