\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 369 Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) )
Events
On the evening of April 15, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report: the total revenue in 2021 was 6.408 billion yuan, an increase of 25.13% at the same time; The revenue was 6.406 billion yuan, an increase of 25.12% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.029 billion yuan, an increase of 29.50% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of RMB 2.033 billion, an increase of 30.50% at the same time.
Key investment points
The performance is in line with expectations and will grow steadily in 2022
The company’s revenue in 2021 was 6.406 billion yuan, an increase of 25.12% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.029 billion yuan, an increase of 29.50% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of RMB 2.033 billion, an increase of 30.50% at the same time.
Fell in the central position in the previous 2021 performance forecast, in line with market expectations. Among them, the revenue in 2021q4 was 1.073 billion yuan (with an increase of 16%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 330 million yuan (with an increase of 30%), and the deduction was 331 million yuan (with an increase of 29%), accelerating month on month compared with the third quarter. The gross profit margin in 2021 was 74.61% (with an increase of 3.5pct), of which 2021q4 was 83.71% (with an increase of 15pct), which was the optimization of product structure brought by the increase of the proportion of Guoyuan series and the large volume of V series; The net profit margin in 2021 was 31.68% (with an increase of 1PCT), of which 2021q4 was 30.81% (with an increase of 3.5pct), which was caused by the increase of gross profit margin and scale effect. In 2021, the sales expense was 968 million yuan (an increase of 11% at the same time), which was caused by the increase of promotion and prize cashing expenses and the salary of business personnel. At the end of 2021, the contract liabilities were 2.067 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2 billion yuan month on month and 970 million yuan year on year, with abundant cash flow.
2022 plan: the revenue target of 2022 is 7.5 billion yuan to 8 billion yuan, that is, the revenue growth rate is 17% – 25%; The net profit target is 2.25 billion yuan – 2.35 billion yuan, that is, the net profit growth rate is 11% – 16%.
Special a+ accounts for 65%, and the annual price contribution is greater than the volume
According to the products, Baijiu liquor revenue is 6 billion 369 million yuan (25% increase), and sales volume is 32 thousand tons (same increase 1%), corresponding ton price is 199 thousand yuan / ton (with 24% increase), price contribution is greater than quantity. The revenue of special a + was 4.165 billion yuan (increased by 36% at the same time), the sales volume was 9200 tons, and the corresponding ton price was 452700 yuan / ton (increased by 12% at the same time), accounting for 65% (increased by 5pct at the same time); The revenue of special class A is 1.714 billion yuan (with an increase of 14%), the corresponding ton price is 11800 tons (with an increase of 6%), and the corresponding ton price is 145300 yuan / ton (with an increase of 8%). Class a revenue was 265 million yuan (with an increase of 4%) and sales volume was 3300 tons (with a decrease of 6%). Class B revenue was 138 million yuan (with a decrease of 13%), and the sales volume was 3200 tons (with a decrease of 17%). We expect that the company’s Guoyuan series accounts for about 80%, and the V series is expected to continue to be in large volume. V3 will undertake more consumer groups of four opening upgrades and follow-up capacity expansion; V9 takes advantage of the hot sauce and wine to form a sauce and wine atmosphere in the province, relying more on group purchase channels.
In terms of sub regions, the revenue of Huai’an region in 2021 was 1.271 billion yuan (increased by 18% at the same time), accounting for 20% (decreased by 7pct at the same time); The revenue of Nanjing region is 1.578 billion yuan (with an increase of 20%), accounting for 25% (with an increase of 7pct). Nanjing region has become the largest market of the company; The revenue of Southern Jiangsu was 852 million yuan (with an increase of 33%), accounting for 13% (with an increase of 4pct); The central Jiangsu region is 869 million yuan (with an increase of 33%), accounting for 14% (with a decrease of 0.3 PCT); Yancheng District: RMB 757 million (increased by 15% at the same time), accounting for 12% (decreased by 2pct at the same time); The revenue of Huaihai region is 606 million yuan (with an increase of 45%), accounting for 9% (with a decrease of 1PCT). Huaihai region is expected to relay Nanjing region to become the power engine of the company; The revenue outside the province is 450 million yuan (with an increase of 36%), accounting for 7% (with an increase of 0.4pct). It is expected to accelerate the development outside the province in 2022. By the end of 2021, the company had 1051 distributors, with a net increase of 103; Among them, 88 were added outside the province.
Equity incentive is expected to accelerate the implementation, and V series is expected to continue to make efforts
The company has completed the repurchase on November 26, 2021, with a cumulative repurchase of about 7.7 million shares, accounting for 0.6138% of the total share capital of the company. The average repurchase price is 56.24 yuan / share, and the total amount paid is about 433 million yuan. We believe that the equity incentive scheme is expected to accelerate the implementation in the first half of 2022.
Brand side: the company will closely focus on the main theme of “focusing on high quality and focusing on new leaps”, firmly grasp the work tone of “seeking speed in a good way”, and highlight the “three modernizations” strategy of differentiation, high-end and nationalization.
Product side: the company continues to improve the operation mechanism of V99 alliance, clearly convey V9 strategic positioning and stabilize the price system; Improve V3 benchmarking objectives and optimize the main layout. Continue to strengthen the popularity of the opening system, further consolidate the influence of the mainstream price belt of Tus-Design Group Co.Ltd(300500) yuan, and accurately implement policies to improve the share of single opening and elegant national margin; Improve the product strategy of markets outside the province to meet different needs.
Channel side: the company deepens the strategy of “upgrading by products and intensive cultivation by regions”, and formulates the marketing strategy and evaluation system by category; We will accelerate breakthroughs in weak markets, comprehensively arrange and cultivate provinces around Jiangsu.
Regional expansion: the company systematically plans the market outside the province, takes the strategic goal thinking as the guidance, and clarifies the strategy of building the national edge sector market and cultivating the Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) characteristic fragmented market; Establish professional teams by category to improve the ability of market organization and expansion.
Three highlights of the company in the future: first, the 10 billion target of V Series in the next decade, and the price band of 600700 yuan for V3 and competitive M6 + advance card; Second, the 14th five year plan for Southern Jiangsu is expected to be nearly 4 billion, with large growth space in the future; Third, the proportion outside the province in the 14th five year plan accounts for more than 20%, and the expansion outside the province is a must for the company to open the ceiling.
Profit forecast
At present, the company is deeply promoting differentiation, high-end and nationalization, and fully implementing the V-series battle, K-series promotion battle, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) brand activation war and breakthrough war outside the province. Taking the Yangtze River Delta as the center, accelerate the formation of strategic sectors; Cultivate key markets with key regions of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei as the core; The market development of prefectures and cities adopts the interactive layout development strategy of cities, counties and districts, and the market development of counties and districts adheres to the “focus law”. Breakthroughs outside the province follow the regional expansion strategy of “comprehensive planning, key breakthroughs, surrounding radiation and echelon development”. We continue to be optimistic about the continuous improvement of the proportion of Guoyuan series, driving the continuous optimization of product structure. V series is expected to become the company’s new power engine and follow Su liquor to build surrounding sectors for a long time. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.95/2.34/2.78 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 23 / 19 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, the growth of the four open sectors was less than expected, the growth of the V series was less than expected, and the expansion outside the province was less than expected.
