\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 51 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) )
Event: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) uses low indium TCO process combined with silver clad copper gate wire to obtain 25.62% photoelectric conversion efficiency on full-size (m6274.5cm2) monocrystalline silicon heterojunction battery.
Azo target helps hjt reduce cost, and sufficient indium reserves will not restrict the development of the industry: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) through the substitution of single-sided azo for double-sided ITO, the corresponding target cost is reduced from 0.325w/piece (i.e. 0.0478 yuan / W) to 0.1426/piece (i.e. 0.021 yuan / W), and the cost of hjt target is reduced by more than 50%. Under the background that the total cost of battery is 0.9 + yuan / W by the end of 2022, the impact of indium price on the total cost is almost negligible. Considering the positive adoption of ITO with “90% indium oxide + 10% tin oxide”, the indium consumption after technological innovation is about 33.6mg/piece, corresponding to 5 tons of indium consumed by 1GW. At present, the global indium reserves are sufficient and will not restrict the development of the industry.
The reduction of silver consumption has helped the rapid decline of hjt battery cost. It is expected that the low-temperature silver clad copper technology will be mass produced within the year, and the domestic silver clad copper slurry will shine brilliantly: the cost reduction of silver slurry is one of the main directions of hjt cost reduction. The specific methods include: (1) multi grid line and fine grid line: after the introduction of smbb technology, the amount of silver used by Huasheng has been reduced to 150mg / piece, and after the introduction of steel sector printing, it can be reduced to 130mg / piece. (2) Silver clad copper: it is divided into two steps: one is to explore the limit of silver copper ratio, and the other is the localization of silver clad copper slurry. The silver content of the slurry introduced now is 50%, and the ultimate silver content in the future is 30%. We expect that 22h2 domestic enterprises can realize the cost of low-temperature silver paste of 6500 yuan / kg. At that time, the cost of hjt low-temperature silver paste will only be less than 10% higher than perc. After the introduction of domestic silver clad copper, the cost will continue to drop to 4000 yuan / kg. (3) Copper plating: it is still in the research and development stage and is expected to become the final solution.
Slicing & cost reduction of n-type silicon wafer is expected to be the main direction of cost reduction of hjt in the future: slicing is a low-temperature process & special cost reduction of sector equipment. Hjt adopts low-temperature whole process technology and sector coating equipment, which will fully benefit and boost the trend of flake. Annealing impurity absorption technology is gradually mature, and equipment and technical reserves will help n-type silicon wafer reduce cost and solve purity pain points. With the increase of n-type silicon wafer manufacturers, large-scale can also help realize the parity between n-type silicon wafer and p-type silicon wafer.
Microcrystalline equipment has been mature, and the localization of parts & efficiency improvement is at the right time: the n-type single-sided microcrystalline technology is now mature, and there is a lot of room for efficiency improvement in the future. On April 9, 2022, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) of the first hjt microcrystalline production line, the efficiency of the first batch of cells has reached 24.6%, far exceeding the amorphous line at the same stage. After reaching the production capacity, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) is expected to achieve 25% mass production efficiency of hjt battery. As an equipment manufacturer, Maiwei has achieved success in equipment and technology, and shows great potential in improving the efficiency of microcrystalline.
Profit forecast and investment rating: as the leader of hjt whole line equipment with first mover advantage, the company fully benefits from the accelerated production expansion of hjt battery, and the long-term layout of Pan semiconductor field opens a broad growth space. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 919 / 1399 / 2169 million, and the corresponding dynamic PE of the current stock price is 54 / 36 / 23 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the R & D of new products is less than the market expectation, and the expansion of hjt equipment is less than the market expectation
