\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.171 billion yuan (+ 285%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.331 billion yuan (+ 360%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.315 billion yuan (+ 368%).
Comments:
The performance significantly exceeded market expectations. It is estimated that it is mainly the raw material volume of HPV vaccine + covid-19 reagent. The company’s production expansion of bivalent HPV vaccine has been completed, and 67 batches (+ 272%) have been issued in 2022q1. It is estimated that nearly 7 million batches have been issued. Considering the inventory at the end of 2021, the sales volume of 2022q1 is also expected to be about 7 million, with a year-on-year increase of more than 6 times. The demand for covid-19 testing reagent continues to grow, and the demand for reagent raw materials of the company also increases significantly. On March 12, the covid-19 antigen detection reagent of the company was also officially approved. The core raw materials are self-produced and the product quality is higher. It is expected to release performance from 2022q2.
The production and marketing of bivalent HPV vaccine increased at the same time. At present, there is a strong demand for HPV vaccine in China, but the supply of MSD to China is limited, so the supply of four / nine valent vaccine products is insufficient. Compared with the four / nine valent vaccine products, the company’s bivalent HPV vaccine has obvious price advantages. The pre potting product line was approved in April 2021 and the production capacity of vials was enlarged in July, with a total production capacity of 30 million vials / year. With the potential of the company’s existing production line and the construction of new production line planned, bivalent HPV vaccine products can achieve the state of increasing production and marketing at the same time; With the promotion of preferential policies of local governments and the improvement of residents’ recognition of bivalent HPV vaccine, the products are expected to gradually develop from third and fourth tier cities to first and second tier cities, thus driving the continuous expansion of the overall market space. In 2021, the company sold more than 10 million divalent HPV vaccines. Considering the smooth production and batch issuance, we raised the sales volume in 2022 to 24 million, with a year-on-year increase of 140%.
The project under research is progressing smoothly and is expected to become the first domestic nine price HPV vaccine enterprise. In the field of vaccines, the company has rich R & D pipelines and many products are progressing smoothly. Among them, the main clinical trial of nine valent HPV vaccine has completed the enrollment and vaccination, and is expected to be approved for listing at the end of 2024 or early 2025, becoming the first domestic nine valent HPV vaccine enterprise; The traditional lyophilized live attenuated varicella vaccine has obtained the phase III clinical trial research report, and the new lyophilized live attenuated varicella vaccine (vzv-7d) is carrying out the phase IIB clinical trial; Nasal spray of influenza virus vector covid-19 pneumonia vaccine has obtained the approval of phase III clinical trial in South Africa; The 20 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine has been approved for clinical trials. The company’s research projects are progressing smoothly and will gradually enter the harvest period. After the products are listed, it is expected to significantly increase the company’s performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the performance exceeding expectations, we raised the company’s profit forecast for 20222024. It is expected that the operating revenue in 20222024 will be 109.37/135.8/17.612 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 90.2% / 24.2% / 29.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 42.25/53.09/6.950 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 109% / 25.7% / 30.9%, corresponding to the P / E ratio of 20222024 will be 38.66/31.6/24.14 times respectively.
Risk factors: the promotion and sales of HPV vaccine are less than expected, and the product R & D is less than expected.
