\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 481 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) )
The performance of the first quarter report increased rapidly and the expense rate decreased significantly
The company released the first quarter report of 2022 on the evening of April 15, 2022. In 2022q1, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.734 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 299.50%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 340.80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 101 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 638.43%; The gross profit margin was 18.55%, with a year-on-year increase of -14.21pct; The net interest rate was 7.83%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.44pct; Roe was 4.78%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.55pct; During the period, the expense rate was 10.22%, with a year-on-year rate of - 15.37%, of which the sales expense rate was 2.45%, with a year-on-year rate of -8.38pct, and the management expense rate was 3.35%, with a year-on-year rate of -4.98pct.
The rapid growth of performance in this period is mainly due to the promotion of "double carbon" policy, the commissioning of new projects and the growth of sales, especially polysilicon reduction furnace and monocrystalline silicon square ingot / silicon wafer. The reason for the significant decrease in gross profit margin year-on-year may be that the revenue structure of the first quarter of last year is different from that of the first quarter of this year. Monocrystalline silicon is a photovoltaic material product, and its gross profit margin is lower than that of equipment. Monocrystalline silicon business may contribute a considerable part of revenue in the first quarter of this year (the company's Q1 shipped about 0.9gw of monocrystalline silicon, with reference to the price of pvinfolink, the corresponding revenue is about 600700 million yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of the revenue in the first quarter), Diluted part of the gross profit margin level. The expense rate in this period has also decreased significantly. As most of the photovoltaic industry are large customers and long-term cooperation, it is expected that the sales expenses and management expenses of the company's new energy business (polysilicon reduction furnace and monocrystalline silicon wafer) have decreased significantly compared with the energy-saving and water-saving business, which also improves the overall net profit margin of the company to a certain extent. In the monocrystalline silicon industry, the company's gross profit margin is still at the level of climbing stage, and the expense rate is also in the downward range. With the improvement of production capacity and the maturity of business, the company's profitability is expected to continue to improve.
The promotion of monocrystalline silicon business is accelerated, and the component business improves the synergy of the industrial chain
At present, the first Baotou single crystal factory of the company is in the state of full production and full sales. It was previously estimated that the annual capacity of 5 Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) single crystal furnaces in one plant was 7gw, while the actual capacity according to the company's first quarterly report was about 8GW, indicating that the company's production was full and the technical level was improved. At the same time, the construction progress of the second single crystal plant has also exceeded expectations. The second plant is equipped with more than 10001600 single crystal furnaces. According to the production capacity of the first plant, the company is expected to achieve more than 22gw of single crystal silicon production capacity in 2022. Meanwhile, the company plans to build a total of 20GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project in Baotou rare earth high tech Zone, which will be implemented by stages. The total investment of phase I 5GW photovoltaic module project is expected to be 1.5 billion yuan, with a construction period of two years. The main specifications of the project products include 550W and 660w. The module project is expected to resonate with the monocrystalline silicon business to help the company maximize revenue in the photovoltaic industry chain.
The new installed capacity reached a new high, and the photovoltaic boom is expected to continue
In 2021, the global PV installed capacity increased by 170gw, a record high. China's PV installed capacity increased by 54.88gw, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. The cumulative PV grid connected installed capacity reached 308gw, a year-on-year increase of 25.1%. The new and cumulative installed capacity ranked first in the world for nine consecutive years. Many countries around the world have put forward the climate goal of "zero carbon" or "carbon neutrality". The development of renewable energy including photovoltaic has become a global consensus. In addition, photovoltaic power generation has become the most competitive form of power supply in more and more countries. It is expected that the global photovoltaic market will maintain rapid growth, while China's photovoltaic industry is expanding in manufacturing scale, industrialization technology level, application market Industrial system construction and other aspects are among the top in the world. CPIA predicts that the global PV installed capacity will reach 232286gw annually from 2022 to 2025. The continued prosperity of the PV market is expected to bring sustained performance growth to the company.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 956 million yuan, 1555 million yuan and 2047 million yuan respectively, corresponding to the current PE of 17x / 11x / 8x respectively, which will continue to be recommended.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downturn and market demand decline; The price of raw materials fluctuates sharply; Risk of policy changes in the photovoltaic industry.
