\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 98 Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) )
The company’s production indicators quickly walked out of the trough, the pressure resistance of funds at the bottom of the cycle appeared, and the “buy” rating was maintained
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) released the annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 64.954 billion yuan (- 13.31%) and net profit attributable to parent company of – 13.404 billion yuan (- 280.51%). In 2021, the company initially made impairment provision of about 2 billion yuan, and the impairment of breeding pigs was 1.907 billion yuan. Maintain the profit forecast for 20222023 and add the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 588 / 177.09/16.523 billion respectively, the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.09/2.79/2.60 respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 231.7/7.7/8.2 times. The breeding index of the company has returned to the pre plague level. With the reversal of the industry cycle, the performance elasticity appears, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
The marginal improvement of pig breeding efficiency is obvious, the cost is continuously reduced and the efficiency is increased, and the cycle is reversed
In 2021, the company sold 13217400 raw pigs (+ 38.47%); The average selling price of hairy pigs is 17.39 yuan / kg (- 48.18%); The sales revenue reached 27.142 billion yuan (- 31.86%). The average number of healthy litters in 2021h2 company is 10.1-10.3, the fattening survival rate rises to about 85%, and the whole fattening cost of 2021m12 is 17.4 yuan / kg. The cost of 2022m1 weaned piglets is about 450 yuan / head, and the annual comprehensive cost is expected to be 16-17 yuan / kg. As of 2022m2, the company has 1-1.1 million primary stock, supporting the target of 18 million stock in 2022.
The cost of poultry breeding has decreased, the effect of transformation slaughter is obvious, and the proportion of fresh and cooked food is expected to maintain a high growth rate
In 2021, 1.101 billion broilers (+ 4.76%) were sold; Sales of meat ducks reached 58 million (+ 1.85%). In 2021, the total cost of the company’s chicken is 12.6 yuan / kg. The company’s meat and poultry slaughtering capacity continued to increase, reaching 285 million / year (a year-on-year increase of 30 million / year). In 2022, the company’s total cost target for wool chicken breeding is 12.2 yuan / kg. The company continued to accelerate the business development of fresh poultry, cooked food and prefabricated dishes. In 2021, the company sold 150 million fresh chickens (+ 18%) and 16900 tons of prefabricated dishes. The growth rate of new businesses and new scenes was bright.
The company has abundant capital reserves and less cash flow pressure at the bottom of the cycle
By the end of the reporting period in 2021, the total assets at the end of the period were 96.988 billion yuan (+ 20.23%). The asset liability ratio was 64.10%. The company implemented the new leasing standards and issued convertible bonds, resulting in an increase in the asset liability ratio of about 1% and 3% respectively at the end of the reporting period. The current debt structure of the company is dominated by long-term debt. The capital expenditure of the company in 2022 is planned to be about 4-5 billion yuan. By the end of 2021, the company’s book cash was about 11.56 billion yuan, with strong short-term solvency.
Risk tips: rising prices of feed raw materials, breeding epidemic risk, etc
