Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 2.40%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.75 percentage points. From the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in November was + 3.9% year-on-year. Affected by epidemic factors, the growth rate decreased by 1.0 PCT compared with October. We believe that in the short term, the emergence of the new strain Omicron superimposed on the winter epidemic counterattack has brought uncertainty to the consumer market. However, with the more accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control and the gradual implementation of the “stable growth” economic policy, China’s consumption is expected to return to a stable growth trend. It is suggested to pay attention to: ① medical beauty: there is broad potential space on the demand side and stricter supervision on the supply side, The upstream has strong profitability and good competition pattern, and focuses on the investment opportunities brought by the rapid expansion of leading enterprises through technological progress, category expansion and channel sinking; ② Cosmetics: beauty value economy superimposes the rise of domestic cosmetics. It is suggested to pay attention to cosmetics companies that actively expand brand and category matrix, pay attention to diversified marketing and omni-channel layout; ③ Gold jewelry: the epidemic situation accelerates the industry integration, channel reform and the improvement of multi scene penetration, which is good for the leading enterprises of gold jewelry; ④ Mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentives. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week (January 3-january 9), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.65%, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 2.40%, and the retail trade index lost 0.75% of the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 20th in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 1.65%, the trade retail index has fallen by 2.40%, and the Shenwan trade retail index has lost 0.75% of the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 20th among the 31 Tier-1 sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: in November 2021, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by + 3.9% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate of commodity retail fell, and the catering revenue increased negatively. Among the sub categories, the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota were + 5.70% and + 8.20% respectively year-on-year. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold fell $32.29 to $1796.93/oz, and silver fell $0.95 to $22.35/oz. ③ E-commerce data: in December 2021, the turnover of Taoxi platform cosmetics (including beauty and skin care and color makeup) was 17.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 24%, and the turnover of jewelry was 8.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 21%. In terms of beauty makeup, the overall performance of Chinese and foreign brands was low in December, Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) youzilai / Caitang, Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) Lianhuo, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) Winona performed better; In terms of jewelry, Gmv of most brands declined in varying degrees, China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) and Cartier performed better.
Important announcements of listed companies: Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688366) progress in reducing holdings; Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) senior management changes; Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) equity incentive; Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) progress in circulation and repurchase of restricted shares; Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) , C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) repurchase progress.
Important events in the industry: (1) the “stop” IPO of “Er Jia”, “Chong Mei”, the “Chuang Mei” mask, and “medical beauty mask” are not easy to enter the capital market. ② The first new regulations are issued in 2022! Cosmetics has become a high-risk industry?; ③ Jewelry exports in Hong Kong strengthened.
Risk factors: the risk of resurgence of epidemic, less than expected recovery of consumption and intensified industry competition
