Liquidity: the BCI index ended its decline in February and rebounded to 47.13 in December. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in December 2021 was 47.13, a month on month increase of + 7.26%. The high probability of phased high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and Shanghai Stock Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 5.5 percentage points in November 2021, with a month on month increase of + 0.4 percentage points.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: a number of micro indicators maintained the lowest level in the same period of 6 years. (1) Price changes this week: thread + 0.21%, cement price index – 2.66%, rubber + 0.00%, coke + 0.00%, coking coal – 8.00%, iron ore + 5.36%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were + 2.10pct, -0.91pct, + 0.10pct and -9.69pct respectively, of which the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate remained the lowest in the same period of 6 years.
Real estate completion chain: glass and PVC prices fell month on month. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and – 6.95% month on month respectively this week; (2) The profit of titanium dioxide this week was 3031 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.70%; (3) The price of PVC was 8758 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 2.23%.
Industrial chain: the capacity utilization rate of semi steel tire maintained the lowest level in the same period of 6 years. (1) Price performance of main bulk commodities: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by + 0.90%, – 0.26%, + 3.39% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 15.52%, – 2.83%, + 15.14%; (2) This week, the operating rate of semi steel tire in China was 60.05%, with a month on month ratio of – 3.65 percentage points.
Breakdown varieties: electrolytic aluminum profit rose 15.14% month on month to 4255 yuan / ton. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 24000 yuan / ton, the same as last week; (2) Nickel: the price this week was 154650 yuan / ton, a month on week increase of – 0.64%; (3) Stainless steel: the price this week is 18100 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.56%; (4) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 4900 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 6.67%, and the profit is – 106 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21050 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 3.39%, and the estimated profit is 4255.4 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of + 15.14%; (6) The gross profit of alumina was 569 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of -0.87%; (7) Thermal coal: this week’s price is 820 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 2.50%; (8) Price performance of other varieties: the prices of molybdenum concentrate and tungsten concentrate were + 0.43% and + 0.00% month on month to 2330 and 111500 yuan / ton respectively.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread widened to 180 yuan / ton. (1) The price ratio of thread and iron ore was 5.78 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar is 180 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 810 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month increase of + 40 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.13, which is at a 10-year low. (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure) reached 230 yuan / ton on Friday, a month on month increase of + 0.00%.
Export chain: in December, the global PMI new order index rose by + 0.1 points to 53.4. (1) China’s export container freight rate index CCFI composite index this week was 3432.79 points, a month on month increase of + 2.65%; (2) The utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States was 80.90% this week, with a month on month ratio of -0.70 percentage points; (3) In December 2021, the new order value of global PMI was 53.40, a month on month increase of + 0.10 points.
Stock rise and fall: this week, the CSI 300 index was – 2.01%, and the best performance of the cyclical sector was cement manufacturing (+ 7.55%).
Investment suggestions: Recently, relevant departments have repeatedly stated that the construction of national water network and urban municipal pipe network will become the starting point of new infrastructure. It is suggested to pay attention to the following subjects: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) , Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Shandong Iron And Steel Company Ltd(600022) , Chongqing Iron & Steel Company Limited(601005) .
Risk prompt: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company
