This week's special topic: Valuation repair, superposition and valuation switching, and the home appliance sector welcomes the good opportunity of configuration. (1) Valuation restoration: in 2021, the growth rate of real estate sales opened high and went low, which significantly suppressed the valuation of household appliances, especially kitchen electricity sector. We expect that the delivery area of commercial housing in China is expected to maintain a rapid growth in 2022, driving the improvement of kitchen electricity demand. At the same time, the margin of China's real estate policy has eased recently, and it is expected that the improvement of real estate sales will drive the valuation of the sector. (2) Valuation switching: we have made statistics and calculations on the market of China's home appliance sector in the past decade. The data show that the probability of excess return in the home appliance sector in the second quarter is close to 70%, and the probability of excess return in March and April is 70% or more. At the current time point, we believe that the adverse factors such as real estate, raw materials and shipping experienced by the household appliance sector gradually subsided in 2021, and the valuation switching market began to appear. The sector is expected to usher in the double repair of valuation and performance.
Investment strategy in 2022: clear the clouds and see the end of the day. Sometimes, the willow is dark and the flowers are bright and the spring is coming. We are firmly optimistic about raw materials and real estate. Under the background of marginal easing, the breakdown leader of household appliances has accelerated the breakthrough. (1) White power: it is suggested to pay attention to the Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) of Casati's high-end leadership, "three winged bird" traffic front and globalization strategy to enhance competitiveness and the white power leader Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) of diversified and global development; (2) Kitchen electricity: it is suggested to pay attention to the steady development of traditional businesses, the Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) of dishwashers and other businesses that are rapidly developing, and Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) and Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) that benefit from the high prosperity of the industry and the accelerated expansion of channels; (3) Small household appliances: the industry demand of kitchen small household appliances is expected to pick up in 2022, and the superimposed cost pressure is weakened year-on-year, resulting in strong performance elasticity. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) , Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) , Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) ; Clean electrical appliances such as floor washer and sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) are expected to grow steadily due to consumption upgrading, but the short-term chip and shipping problems suppress the valuation of the sector to a certain extent. It is recommended to pay attention to Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Kingclean Electric Co.Ltd(603355) ; Intelligent projection is recommended to focus on Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) . (4) Electrician lighting: focus on Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) intensive cultivation of channels and products and Opple Lighting Co.Ltd(603515) rapid development of commercial lighting business.
This week's market: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.65%, and the home appliance industry rose 4.19%, significantly outperforming the market. Among them, white electricity rose 5.74%, black electricity fell 0.24%, kitchen electricity rose 3.64%, small household appliances rose 2.65%, lighting electricians and other sectors rose 0.23%. As for the shareholding ratio of Shanghai (Shenzhen) stock connect, as of Friday, Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect accounted for 17.33%, down 0.08pct from last week; Gongniu Group Co.Ltd(603195) Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect accounted for 18.48%, down 0.09pct from last week; Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect accounted for 11.04%, down 0.1pct from last week; Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect accounted for 11.75%, down 0.13pct from last week; Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect accounted for 9.35%, down 0.69pct from last week; The shareholding of Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock connect accounted for 10.93%, an increase of 0.11pct over last week. In terms of individual stocks, the top three gainers in the household appliance industry this week were Kennede Electronics Mfg.Co.Ltd(002723) (33.94%), Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) (15.63%), Sichuan Huati Lighting Technology Co.Ltd(603679) (13.6%); The top three declines were Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) (- 13.04%), Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) (- 10.75%) and Youngy Health Co.Ltd(300247) (- 10.17%).
One week key data tracking: the price of galvanized sheet coil (0.5mm) this week is 5844 yuan / ton, down 37 yuan / ton from last week; The price of galvanized sheet coil (1.0mm) this week is 5723 yuan / ton, down 24 yuan / ton from last week; The price of copper (1#) this week was 69830 yuan / ton, down 410 yuan / ton from last week; The price of aluminum (A00) this week is 21050 yuan / ton, an increase of 910 yuan / ton compared with last week; The price index of China plastic city was 991.9 this week, up 1.9 from last week.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; Risk of terminal demand slump; Exchange rate fluctuation risk
