Key events of this week: 1) housing loans in November 21 years ago were + 8.4% year-on-year, and the reasonable housing needs of buyers were further met: on January 6, the cbcirc introduced at a regular press conference that as of the end of November 21, the national real estate loans were + 8.4% year-on-year, more than 90% of personal housing loans were used to support the first loan house, and the reasonable housing needs of buyers were further met. 2) Steady growth of Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) performance: on January 4, Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) issued an announcement on the pre increase of performance in 21 years. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent in 21 years will increase by 66-110 million year-on-year, an increase of 15-25%. 3) Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) enhance competitiveness through M & A: on January 4, Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) announced that it planned to transfer 51% equity of Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) Qiangbang quartz with its own capital of 51 million, so as to further expand the production scale of high-purity quartz sand of the company. 4) Taishan gypsum raised the price of gypsum board products in the region due to the rising cost: the production cost of gypsum board increased due to the rising price of raw material protective paper and the rising logistics cost. From January 4 to 8, Taishan gypsum successively issued price increase letters to the northeast, northwest, Inner Mongolia, Jiaodong, Shandong, Fujian and Jiangxi regions. The whole series of gypsum board products were uniformly increased by 0.2 yuan / m2 on the basis of the current ex factory price, The price shall be implemented successively by region from January 12 to 16, 22. 5) Taishan Zoucheng 60000t glass fiber electronic yarn tank kiln ignition: according to ddfiberglass, recently, Taishan glass fiber (Zoucheng) held the ignition ceremony of 60000t / a alkali free glass fiber spinning (electronic yarn) tank furnace drawing production line project. The total investment of the project is 999 million yuan, and the designed annual production capacity is 52680 tons of electronic yarn, 5000 tons of special chopped fiber and 6000 tons of glass ball.
This week’s view: this week we released the 2022 investment strategy report “traditional building materials turn around and new materials take advantage of the trend”. We believe that infrastructure investment is expected to exceed expectations under steady growth and pay attention to infrastructure chain in the short term; Investment opportunities for brand building materials and new materials were promising throughout the year. The margin of real estate policy is getting better, the real estate chain is expected to be repaired, and the price rise is gradually falling / the price of raw materials is falling, the brand building materials are gradually entering the layout time point, and the leading certainty is high. The prosperity of carbon fiber / quartz sand / glass fiber continues and continues to be recommended. The glass sector focuses on the expansion of new categories such as photovoltaic, electronics and pharmaceutical glass. The expected marginal improvement of real estate + the acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support the cement demand. At present, the valuation of the cement sector is cost-effective, and the leader of volume increase logic is preferred. The cost side of the water reducing agent sector is declining rapidly, and the leader with new category expansion logic is preferred. 1) For the carbon fiber industry, we believe that the investment logic of the civil carbon fiber industry lies not only in the high growth of demand (wind, light, hydrogen, etc.), but also in the “favorable climate, favorable location and harmonious people”. After seizing the opportunity to catch up, we will further expand the scale and cost advantage and realize the historical opportunity of “domestic substitution” and transcendence. Under the barriers of high technology, technology and capital, those who get the “raw silk” win the world. In the medium and long term, with reference to glass fiber, the penetration rate of the industry increases or depends on changing “price” for “demand”. We suggest paying attention to the carbon fiber leader Zhongfu Shenying (to be listed), Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , precursor leader Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , and Hengshen shares; Carbon fiber equipment manufacturer Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) ; Downstream composite manufacturers Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , Hongfa new materials, etc. 2) For consumer building materials, on the one hand, the end of the real estate policy has been realized, the financing end of the real estate industry has improved significantly, and the pessimistic expectation of the real estate chain is expected to continue to repair. On the other hand, with the gradual implementation of price increases and the decline of raw material prices, we judge that the profitability of consumer building materials is expected to gradually improve, and the industry will gradually enter the layout time point. Consumer building materials leaders have advantages in brand / Channel / cost / capital. They have the ability to cross the cycle in terms of competitiveness and growth, focusing on leading enterprises Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) . 3) For the quartz glass industry, benefiting from the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity / the transformation of photovoltaic cells from p-type to n-type, the demand for high-purity quartz sand is growing rapidly, the supply side is newly added or limited, and the price of quartz sand is expected to rise steadily; The demand for semiconductors and military quartz materials is booming, and the barriers to qualification certification are high. Leading enterprises are expected to continue to increase the market share, and Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) are mainly recommended. 4) For the glass fiber industry, the price is running smoothly this week. We expect that the new production capacity of roving is limited and the demand continues to improve. Under the low inventory, the high outlook of roving is expected to continue. We expect that the new production capacity of electronic yarn will be about 100000 tons in 22 years, and there will still be new production at the supply end. It does not rule out that the subsequent price of electronic yarn will still be loose, but it is expected that the overall production capacity will remain at a good level in 22 years. Focus on China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) . 5) For the glass industry, we judge that under the “guaranteed delivery” of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. On the supply side, considering the current high capacity utilization rate of the industry, the subsequent new capacity is limited; In addition, according to the data of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) and Industrial Glass Association, in the production line, the production capacity with kiln age of 8-10 years / more accounts for 14.1% / 14.5% respectively, and the cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the glass price is expected to maintain a good level. Focus on the medium and long-term growth brought by various types of glass (photovoltaic, electronic, pharmaceutical glass, etc.); Focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) . It is recommended to pay attention to Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , etc. 6) For the cement industry, the quota of new special bonds will be issued in advance in 2022, the infrastructure is expected to gradually develop, the marginal relaxation of the real estate financing end may lead to the expected improvement of the market, and the cement demand is expected to be supported; In addition, the role of policy regulation of coal price has been fully demonstrated. When the cement price center is expected to remain high, the cost pressure of enterprises is expected to ease month on month. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of the cement sector, focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , and it is suggested to focus on Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) and China building materials. 7) For the water reducing agent industry, the price of raw material ethylene oxide has dropped by about 25% from a higher point, and there is still a possibility of decline; By the end of September, the centralized price increase of major manufacturers is expected to be gradually implemented, and the industry profit is expected to improve. Leading companies have obvious competitive advantages, and new products benefit from the improvement of downstream demand, which is expected to maintain high growth. It is mainly recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) . 8) It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) : the company is the leader in the production and export of PVC flooring, and the growth elasticity of production capacity will be highlighted in the future. Although in the early stage, due to the rise of raw material prices, exchange rate and shipping pressure, the profit is under pressure, but at present, the export chain benefits from a high outlook and the sea freight decreases, the enterprise gradually adjusts the price, the cost side also drops, and the profit is expected to be gradually repaired.
Considering that the final demand period has entered and peak production has been staggered in many places, the cement price is expected to decline seasonally, but the overall price center will remain high. The advanced development of follow-up infrastructure investment and the expected improvement of real estate are expected to support demand, and the role of policy regulation of coal price has been reflected, and the cost pressure of enterprises is expected to be relieved. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of cement plate.
This week, the national cement market price fell 2.6% month on month. The price drop areas are still around East China, Central South and southwest China, with a range of 30-60 yuan / ton. After new year’s day, as the off-season approaches, the demand of China’s cement market continues to weaken, and the cement price also continues the downward trend. Cement enterprises in the South began to release the peak shifting production plan in the first quarter. Considering the poor market demand, the peak shifting production time of local enterprises will generally increase compared with the same period of last year. In terms of price, it is expected that there will be another round of reduction in some areas next week. After January 15, the cement price in most areas will tend to be stable. The national storage capacity ratio was 61.3%, with a month on month ratio of -0.1pct, a year-on-year increase of + 10.2pct; The shipment rate was 45.9%, with a chain comparison of -1.0pct and a year-on-year comparison of -13.9pct. We believe that the combination policy regulation of “price limit + production increase” of coal has gradually played a role in recent years. Enterprises actively carry out peak shifting production, Q4 price center is expected to remain high, and the cost pressure is expected to be relieved. Looking forward to 22 years, although the overall real estate demand may be under pressure, the margin has improved, and with the development of infrastructure, the overall demand toughness will remain; In addition, the coal price is expected to fall, and the enterprise profit toughness is expected to be maintained. We are still optimistic about the further repair of the plate. It is recommended to focus on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , and it is recommended to focus on Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) , and China building materials.
Glass fiber: the high prosperity of the industry is expected to continue, and the “dual control of energy consumption” helps to optimize the industry pattern. We expect that the new capacity of the industry will be limited in 22 years, with roving / electronic yarn of about 42 / 100000 tons respectively. Moreover, the production line is put into operation more dispersed. We expect the marginal new capacity of 22q1-22q4 to be 1.7/1.7/3.3/13000 tons / quarter respectively, with a relatively mild impact. We expect that in the 21st / 22nd year, the global effective production capacity of glass fiber will be 8.79/9.36 million tons, the demand will be 8.91/9.43 million tons, the supply and demand will be in tight balance, and the price boom is expected to continue under the low inventory level. The energy cost of glass fiber accounts for about 20%, and the energy consumption is still high. Under the dual control of energy consumption, it is more difficult to increase the new capacity of the industry, and the uncertainty of landing rhythm increases. We believe that the new production capacity will still be dominated by leading enterprises, and the industry pattern is expected to continue to be optimized. The leader has core competitiveness such as cost and technology, and the continuous upgrading of product structure will hedge the periodicity to a certain extent. The competitiveness of the leader in the glass fiber industry is significantly enhanced whether from the perspective of increasing market share or continuous decline in cost. We expect that the profit of the bottom leader in the next round is expected to increase significantly compared with history. We continue to focus on recommending the glass fiber leader China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) . We also recommend Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (diaphragm price starts the upward cycle, wind power is expected to hit the bottom and rise, glass fiber profit is expected to exceed expectations, and continue to be optimistic about the future growth sustainability of the three plates), Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (capacity expansion planning is clear, growth is gradually realized, industrial chain integration has strong risk resistance), Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
At present, brand building materials are gradually entering the layout time point. We believe that the current leading industries such as gypsum board, waterproof, ceramic tile and coating have high configuration value. At the industry level, we believe that the completion end is stronger than the commencement end. In terms of segmentation, the industry leaders with low market share or category expansion logic deserve special attention. Even if the overall demand of the industry is under pressure, the anti periodicity of the leaders will be significantly better than that of the industry. 1) Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) : gypsum board landscape and high-end resonance, waterproof and keel provide growth; The periodic attribute is expected to weaken significantly; The current valuation is very cost-effective; In the past, the market’s valuation of the company mainly referred to the cyclical stocks with low ceiling. With the gradual implementation of the strategy of one body and two wings and global layout, the growth is prominent, and the valuation space is expected to be opened. We continue to focus on recommendation. 2) The waterproof industry has a large long-term demand space, and the photovoltaic roof system also brings new increment. At present, the industry pattern is relatively clearer, and the leader has also built strong competitive barriers. With the help of channel advantages, leading enterprises expand in multiple categories, Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) extend their business to the fields of coatings / thermal insulation materials, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) cut into the blue ocean market of building vibration reduction and isolation, and leading enterprises fully extend their business lines to create new growth points and enhance anti periodicity. Focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , and pay attention to Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . 3) Ceramic tiles ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) ): large industries, small companies and leading enterprises have great room to improve the market share; The driving factors are brand, channel and cost; We believe that companies with a revenue volume of 10-20 billion are expected to appear in the industry in the next 2-3 years. The current valuation has fully reflected the pessimistic expectation, but the actual fundamentals are not poor. It is mainly recommended that Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) (the product price is generally adjusted by 5% from October 1) and Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) (5 of the 7 production lines temporarily shut down in the early stage have resumed production). 4) We continue to recommend Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) in the hardware industry. The core advantages of Jianlang are: obvious comprehensive supply capacity and service advantages caused by direct sales channels and information construction; In the future, reuse channels to expand the category of “asset light” and build a platform and integrated leader. The short-term market is worried that the tightening of real estate funds will affect the company’s cash flow. In fact, small enterprises are more affected, and the advantages of leading enterprises are expected to continue to play. 5) The C-end of the coating industry has strong brand and channel strength, and the leading enterprises have been fed back by the b-end, which we believe will continue to deepen. The cash flow / cost of short-term coating leading enterprises is affected by the tightening of real estate funds / the rise of raw material prices, which increases the operating pressure, but the high growth / continuous improvement trend of leading enterprises remains unchanged. It is recommended to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) . 6) In the pipe industry, we recommend Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) (looking at the improvement of sales and management, the valuation is cost-effective), and Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) (looking at the business development of waterproof and water purification). It is recommended to pay attention to China Liansu. 7) Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) : the company is the first stock to enter the door and lock the market. The C-end has strong brand and channel power, and the subsequent capacity expansion helps open the b-end market space; And the company relies on dealers to complete installation and service, with excellent cash flow level; In the follow-up, wooden doors, electronic locks and other products continue to make great efforts, with key recommendations.
The continuous recommendation demand in the field of new materials is concentrated in the quartz material and carbon fiber industries with strong long-term growth such as military industry, semiconductor and photovoltaic, and the leaders Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) , Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) with strong technical and cost advantages are recommended. Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) recommended logic: look at the semiconductor and photovoltaic fields. 1) High demand for semiconductors + diffusion and etching qualification certification of core equipment manufacturers, looking forward to large-scale performance. 2) High demand for high-purity sand in photovoltaic field + domestic substitution + capacity release resonance, which is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price. In addition, the carbon fiber industry is driven by the demand for new energy such as wind power / photovoltaic / hydrogen energy, and the growth rate of civil market demand is accelerated; At the same time, with the technology maturity, cost reduction and rapid production expansion of China’s leading enterprises, the localization rate of carbon fiber is expected to continue to improve. The industry continues to prosper, and the leading carbon fiber company Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) is recommended.
Glass toughness still exists, and attention is paid to the development of multi category glass. The average price of building white glass this weekend was 2108 yuan / ton (down 2.68% from – 58 last week); At the end of the week, the glass production capacity was 174825t / D (unchanged month on month). This week, China’s float glass market was weak and downward, and the trading became weak obviously. During the week, affected by holidays and the weakening of rigid demand, the shipments of manufacturers in most regions slowed down by different ranges, the prices in North and central China decreased significantly, and the prices in East and South China also decreased by different ranges. In the later stage of the market, the market demand will enter a rapid decline stage. The orders of some processing plants will maintain production until October 15. The float factory inventory is high and the market downside risk is high. It is expected that the Spring Festival policy will be launched in the later stage. We believe that under the “guaranteed delivery” of the real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. On the supply side, considering the high capacity utilization rate of the industry, the subsequent new capacity is limited; In addition, at present, in the production line, the production capacity with kiln age of 8-10 years / more accounts for 14.1% / 14.5% respectively. The cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the glass price is expected to continue to pick up. Focus on the medium and long-term growth brought by various types of glass (photovoltaic, electronic, pharmaceutical glass, etc.). Continue to focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , etc.
Other underestimated sectors: it is recommended to pay attention to the leader of refractory Beijing Lier High-Temperature Materials Co.Ltd(002392) , and continue to focus on the leader of China’s concrete water reducing agent industry Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) . Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) recommendation logic: the company’s production capacity planning is clear, which is expected to continue to grow in the next three years and the market share will continue to increase; Raw material ring
